Two months after Britain left the single market and customs union in favour of the TCA, a short thread based on my piece in this week’s issue.1/
Most obvious: multiplying complaints from seafood and pork exporters to fashionistas and musicians. Some are teething problems, but most flow directly from Boris Johnson’s choice to prioritise sovereignty over market access in the TCA.2/
Biggest political problem is NI protocol. Johnson chose this to avoid hard border with Ireland, while taking GB out of SM and CU. Barriers in the Irish Sea the inevitable result. Yet ERG Tories want to scrap what they eagerly voted for. 3/
Larger economic issue is trade across the channel. Here the big problem is rules of origin that hit businesses from supermarkets to pet foods to fashion designers. Strict sanitary rules also obstruct exports of shellfish and agrifoods. 4/
I recommend @rdanielkelemen, whose list of examples of Brexit trade barriers in first two months has now reached close to 220.5/
Regulatory equivalence for financial services looks far off. Musicians, actors and others gripe about red tape and travel restrictions. Provisional acceptance of data adequacy a rare ray of hope.6/
The key point is that the chances of reducing any of these barriers very small. Minor fiddles yes, but any substantial change, eg alignment with EU SPS rules, would cross sovereignty red lines.7/
Promotion of David Frost to replace Michael Gove does not augur any compromise. Nor does foolish row over EU ambassador in London, to whom Johnson government (alone in the world) refuses full diplomatic status. 8/
The cost of hard Brexit will take time to emerge. But it looks consistent with LSE modelling for @UKandEU: a fall over ten years in British exports to the EU of 36% and in incomes per head of 6%, bigger than impact of covid-19.9/
Brexiteers who insist benefits will emerge in ten years should recall Switzerland, whose voters rejected the single market (EEA) in 1992. Over the next decade the Swiss economy grew more slowly than any EU country’s.10/
Yet striking that Swiss did not change their minds. And, though polls point to narrow Remain majority, Brits unlikely to either. The scratchy and antagonistic relationship in prospect makes this ever less likely. 11/
@Mij_Europe was criticised for saying the EU gets on badly with its neighbours. I put it differently: the EU is bad at enticing voters who spurn it. That will apply here, even when Brexit damage is obvious. We are stuck with it.12ends/
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