Trouble ahead on EU/UK negotiations, a short thread after a few days in Brussels based on my article this week. 1/
The gap between Barnier’s draft guidelines and Johnson’s speech/statement is wide, and because Johnson refuses even to consider an extension time is exceptionally short. 2/
The EU is taking an extreme position on level playing-field. UK has a point when arguing that no other FTA requires a partner to follow EU rules so rigorously. 3/
But it is obvious that zero-tariff, zero-quota deal (better than Canada) requires commitments from a large neighbour not to undercut EU members on state aid, environment, labour standards etc. 4/
And trust in Johnson’s promises not to do this is understandably lacking. Not just because some genuinely want deregulation but because he is serially untrustworthy, eg on effects of NI protocol. 5/
The trick may be to agree an enforcement system that seriously disadvantages big divergence from EU standards while not requiring dynamic alignment. Not a Swiss nuclear option but a gun to fire at will. 6/
Since both sides prefer a deal to no deal, this ought to be possible with deft diplomacy. Similarly fish could be settled on an annual basis. 7/
Even the ECJ might be doable on the principle that it is sole interpreter of EU law and so has role in overseeing any deal, but is also explicitly not to rule over British courts. 8/
Biggest obstacle is not diplomacy but politics. EU thinks it won round one by virtue of size and hard line, plus knowing UK would never go for no deal. 9/
Johnson believes UK (ie, May) lost round one by not being tough enough and not being ready to use threat to walk away. Hence his espousal of Australian model. 10/
No trade deal nothing like as bad as no deal last year; and because Canada dry would be pretty basic trade deal, gap between that and no deal is quite small economically. 11/
Hence the EU may be underestimating Johnson’s willingness to go for no trade deal, while Johnson may be overestimating EU’s fear of such a result. 12/
And that plus time constraints makes no trade deal a seriously dangerous risk this autumn. 13/ends
