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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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2 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Many remainers convinced Brexit a scheme dreamt of city financiers to make money.
Many Leave voters convinced City would ensure Brexit done in a sensible way.

The truth is the city doesn’t care about Brexit as the city isn’t connected to UK economy.

It can move if it needs to.
2/
The only way the city is connected to London is through the people it employs, the offices it rents & the services it consumes.

But these jobs don’t “need” to be here.
There’s no massive factory, mineral source or resource that stops it moving.
Basically many city jobs depend(ed) on:

1. Sound rich well run economy
2. Availability of skilled, English speaking workforce
3. Pre-Brexit in a regulatory area that can do this business
4. Inertia

London led on 1st two but EU nations have caught UK up.

(3) now destroying (4).
5/
That’s why I’m sure the global Forex business will stay in London + business that has little to do with either EU or European financial regulation.

But anything to do with finance that touches EU...will leave.

Unfortunately for UK - EU is a large chunk of global business.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Mar
+UPDATE+

The “Loyalist Council” of Northern Irish paramilitaries officially withdraws support for the Good Friday Agreement.

This marks the 1st time the paramilitary representatives have publicly withdrawn backing for the peace deal since it was agreed over 2 decades ago.
2/
It is understood that a communication sent to Boris Johnson has confirmed the “loyalist” paramilitaries will withdraw their backing for the Good Friday Agreement until the UK govt ditches or destroys the Northern Irish protocol agreed with the EU last year.
3/
This is a significant ratcheting up of pressure from “loyalists” and follows decision by DUP/loyalist groups to stop construction of all permanent customs infrastructure that could serve Northern Ireland’s trade with the rest of the UK - even tho this required by Brexit deal.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Mar
+UPDATE+

City institutions “have moved £1.3 Trillion worth of assets from UK to the EU since Brexit vote” with some transfers still ongoing.

Direct financial sector job transfers from London to the EU now approaching 10 000.

This figure does not include knock-on/supply jobs.
2/
One of the biggest transfers of assets is thought to be the US financial bank - JP Morgan Chase - which is still completing a transfer of almost £200 billion of assets from London to the EU.

These are estimated to be some of the largest transfers of assets in world history.
3/
Process began in 2016 - now total figures confirmations emerging.

Interesting is also country spread of the relocation.

While Amsterdam has done well with share trading relocation - Frankfurt, Dublin & Lux have benefitted most from assets transfer.

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
26 Feb
Following are all true:

1. There's zero chance of rejoin inside at least 6 years
2. EEA membership/alignment is clearly in UKs interest
3. Referendum needed before rejoin possible
4. No party will risk fighting an election with referedum as policy any time soon

Which leaves....
And then next..

5. EU will insist on align/"trusted relationship" prior to rejoin
6. Many Remain voters dont want 2nd referendum now
7. Referendum not needed for steps before rejoin
8. Culture war on align is less obvious than on rejoin which shows Brexit publicly as "a failure"
3/
Once you get these 8 points..it becomes clear what the route should...indeed, can only be.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
25 Feb
British supermarkets & producers increasingly “de-Europeanising” foods for post-Brexit UK.

So for example “Petits Pois” (a term much of the world uses regardless of where they come from) has now become “British fancy peas” with Union flag.
2/
Remember “Brussel Sprouts”?

Those were the bad old days..now we have freedom loving, flag waving “British Sprouts”.
3/
And don’t worry if you’re not just anti European...but also “Celt-sceptical”..

...you can now enjoy a Haggis in the safety of your home without a worry or even a thought about Scotland with the “Great British Haggis”..
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
23 Feb
The British royal family were never really under serious threat from the left.

Most liberals & “do-gooding” lefties are suckers for people who look like they’re trying to make the world a bit better place.

It’s the right wing & nihilistic media that’ll destroy them in the end.
2/
I think as well, many non royalists will be surprised what happens when the Queen passes on.

She is such a cultural & social icon theres likely to be the same effect as when a country loses a chunk of itself - which of course could literally happen at the same time as well.
3/
The Queen passing on the same time as Scotland leaving the union is likely to concentrate minds in 🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿 where the Generation that associates the “shared monarchy” with the war & the “British-heavy” migration of the pre-1970s will have faded into insignificance.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Feb
This is a very curious tweet by the BBC.
To those who know financial sector this is a normal figure for registrations.
It doesn't mean what BBC language is implying.
Nobody expects the City to suddenly collapse - if it did the country would effectively be broke overnight.
2/
The intention of this @BBCNews tweet was to cloud/decieve rather than explain.
The use of phrase "'set to open UK offices'" implies in most peoples minds something other than is likely to be the case in all but a minority of cases.

Its almost disinformation.
3/
By "opening up a 1 000 offices" could quite easily refer to a thousand companies registered to a single address.

In fact after losing several trillion worth of business to Amsterdam this BBC tweet attempts to hide this behind a dodgy stat that most people wont understand..
Read 5 tweets

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