Vaccine effect in Israeli hospitals:

More people in their 50s on ventilators than those in their 70s.
More people in their 40s on ventilators than those in their 80s.
Ventilated Covid-19 patients in Israeli hospitals as of this morning:

90+ 4
80-89 23
70-79 44
60-69 50
50-59 50
40-49 28
30-39 21
20-29 6
10-19 2
Ventilated Covid-19 patients in Israeli hospitals from 9 February, three weeks ago today

90+ 3
80-89 31
70-79 73
60-69 77
50-59 59
40-49 25
30-39 16
20-29 8
10-19 3
0-9 2
Ventilator numbers are a lagging indicator: it takes a while to get sick enough to need a ventilator, and Covid patients sometimes stay ventilated for months. But the faster decline among older people, who were vaccinated first, is still striking.

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More from @ariehkovler

27 Feb
ANECDOTE ALERT: Kindergarten on my block was back for just one day when a teacher tested positive for Covid, putting 14 kids into quarantine. Of them, 7 have now tested positive. The B.1.1.7 lineage is no joke.
Teachers were offered priority access to coronavirus vaccines, but many delayed. This teacher had received her first dose a few days prior. She had mild symptoms but delayed getting a test.
Luckily, most of the parents were vaccinated earlier, so they will have significant protection. But the virus can spread in the home to other kids.
Read 6 tweets
26 Feb
More evidence on vaccines and coronavirus transmission: Analysis of data from Israel's surveillance testing programme for care home workers suggests that the Pfizer vaccine cuts positive PCR tests by 88% (76%-92%) among 8,300 vaccinated workers compared to 2600 unvaxxed.
The care workers are actively tested, regardless of vaccine status, as part of Israel's programme to reduce care home infections. The analysis was restricted to workers who work in care homes whose residents were vaccinated centrally, to try and control for workplace exposure.
The analysis notes that other factors could be in play, for example care home workers who are unvaccinated might generally be people who behave more in more risky ways.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
New data Pfizer vaccine effectiveness from Israel in the @NEJM in most comprehensive study so far of of 600k vaccinated people 7+ days from second dose:

92% against infection (88-95%)
94% against symptomatic Covid (87-98%)
92% against severe disease (75-100%)
No death stat? Well, the 1.2 million people in this study (600k vaccinated, 600k control) isn't enough to give a meaningful effectiveness against death from Covid, because only one of the 600k vaccinated people died 7+ days after the second dose.
These are really excellent numbers, albeit not the eye-popping effectiveness figures published by Israel's Health Ministry this week. One of the authors of the @NJEM study, @RanBalicer, previously suggested that the Health Ministry numbers were flawed.

Read 5 tweets
22 Feb
Since we're doing CPAC speakers already, they're also hosting one of the leaders of the Japanese Happy Science cult. Again.
Jay Aeba from the Happiness Realization Party, the political wing of the Happy Science cult, founded the Japanese version of CPAC and

Hope Not Hate @hopenothate wrote about the links between CPAC and the Happy Science cult in 2019 hopenothate.org.uk/2019/11/14/cou…
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
A study by Public Health England finds that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 72% effective at preventing ALL coronavirus infection (including asymptomatic) 21 days after first dose, and 86% effective 7 days after second dose.
Also some evidence that people who've recovered from Covid-19 are as protected, or more protected, against coronavirus infection as vaccinated people. All really good news for the vaccines' ability to slash transmission and end the pandemic.
The pre-print in the Lancet is here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
We've got to do better in our vaccine messaging than "get a vaccine or you'll DIE, you total moron!"
I see people posting messages like this all the time on social media, and I think it does more harm than good.
There are lots of people out there who just aren't very scared of Covid, and they aren't going to suddenly become scared of it now. Presenting vaccines (accurately) as the path to reopening is probably better.
Read 4 tweets

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