Thread by @NatickBobCat

Having trouble filling out your #2021MMM Bracket? Too hard to make the decisions? What the heck is a Red-Rumped Agouti and can it beat a Bay Cat? (That one is easy: No)

DON’T PANIC

Grab your towel and follow along with Professor Bobcat’s Annual March Mammal Madness Manifesto!

https://twitter.com/Mammals_Suck/status/1366789990328377347

First up, reach down for that confidence and remember that this is YOUR bracket and you don’t have to let anybody else make you second guess.

Why am I saying this?

Because if you’re reading #2021MMM advice from an Internet Bobcat? You’ve got some issues, Biped.

Next, you’ve got your essential #2021MMM decision to make with that newfound mesopredator level confidence:

Are you going with your head or your heart?

If the latter, you get to pick your favorites and go ahead and cheer for them, but,

AND THAT’S OK.

There is a rich history of picking hopeless creatures as your favorite and complaining about the unfairness of it all when they lose is half the fun.

#2021MMM

https://twitter.com/radiationmouth/status/1366543287897751558

When I pick my Bracket from the heart, I follow a simple Algorithm:
1. Lynx species always win
2. Cats/felids/things I decide are felids always win UNLESS they are up against a Lynx
3. For all other battles the winner is decided by what I would rather eat.

#2021MMM

So if that is your path, off you go and pick that #2021MMM bracket with who you want to win and be happy with it. My bracket from the Heart is done and I stand behind every selection:

Now, the real reason this Manifesto exists is for those of you who want to really dig into who’s most likely to win or lose in #2021MMM , after all:

And if we’re going to talk about the head, let’s dig into the mechanics of #2021MMM . Randall Monroe of
@XKCD
very accurately and unintentionally summed up the heart of MMM thusly:

Each #2021MMM battle is set up with the moderators carefully assessing the percentage chance that each competitor has to win, taking into account mass, armament, abilities, general orneriness...

AND the ecology of the #2021MMM battleground. This is of critical importance and often gives the higher seeds (lower number = higher seed) a tremendous advantage in the early rounds as the battle will take place in their home turf. Or surf. Whichever.

A Musk Deer suddenly finding itself paddling amongst seagrass and coral reefs likely has much bigger things to worry about than the fact that it is sharing the water with a Dugong.

#2021MMM

Once the percentage chance is set, the soulless calculation automaton @MMMRNG1 picks a random number, and the #2021MMM Narrator fits that with the biology of the combatants and the ecology where the battle takes place. If we’re lucky, #Carnage ensues.

https://twitter.com/Mammals_Suck/status/977009015363219456

An 8 seed vs a 9 seed is in coin flip territory, most of the time probably in the 45% (9) to 55% (8) chance of winning. Not that the winner is likely advancing in the next round as they’ll be walking into whichever meat grinder has the 1 seed in that bracket. #2021MMM

A 1 seed vs a 16 seed is going to be more like 95% to 5% respectively *at best*
There have been thirty-two 16 seeds since 2013, they’ve all lost.
Don’t pick a 16 seed to win anything in #2021MMM . Really. Just…don’t.

Yes, I know, probability says that eventually a 16 seed will pull out a win and the #2021MMM Narrator will have to contort themselves around that outcome. You’re not going to accurately predict that, though.

In #2021MMM 15 seed odds vs 2 seeds aren’t going to be much better. Two years ago saw the Tenrec pull out the first ever 15 seed winner vs second seeded Markhor,

https://twitter.com/am_anatiala/status/1106004088427286531?s=21

…. But anyone that called that win wasn’t a genius,

#70Maxims @howardtayler

So, pick the Wild Card (go with your gut) then go ahead and just advance all the 1 and 2 seeds in your #2021MMM bracket, but keep an eye on Harpy Eagle and Masrasector nananubis in later rounds. There are poisonous lower seeds in “Of Myths and Monsters.”

This can impact the narration (but not the original odds fed into the @MMMRNG1). Damage taken early can fester, RIP #2019 2 seed Nimravid.

https://twitter.com/mammals_suck/status/1110367458903220224?s=21

… #2021MMM

Won't really impact how you pick your Bracket, but bragging rights on predicting how the narrations in #2021MMM will go is always good.

3 and 4 seeds can lose early. It’s rare, but these upsets are the Bracket Busters that inspire the most wailing and gnashing of #Carnassials. Alligator Snapping Turtle was my Final Roar Dark Horse in #2019MMM

https://twitter.com/Drew_Lab/status/976629301884923907

Upsets happen. Factor this in when you get to the Elite Trait, because that’s when higher seed advantage goes away and #2021MMM ecology is randomly determined between Dwarf/Elfin Forest, Seagrass Meadow, Semi-Arid Desert and Freshwater Swamp Forest through to the Championship.

Keep a close eye on these changes, as even if a #2021MMM Sea Beastie finds itself in a nice wet Swamp Forest, the results can be...unexpected. And grim.

#Durgaviched

https://twitter.com/tinkeringprim8/status/978443673519230978

Most early upsets are going to happen in the 5/12, 6/11, 7/10 and 8/9 seed battles. Pick some upsets in here, paying attention to the ecologies, but don’t pick TOO many upsets. Higher seeded animals are higher seeded for a reason, not just to irritate #2021MMM fans.

If you’re going to win your #2021MMM bracket, you need to hit a few upsets, but smarter to pick those carefully from the second round on, in #2020MMM Gopher Tortoise was a surprise Final Roar combatant instead of the electrifying Trumpeter Swan.

https://twitter.com/alyb_batgirl/status/1243338704170749955

So at this point you should have your #2021MMM “from the head” Bracket almost done, but let’s talk about the Final Roar and Championship for a bit. Take a look at who you have in your Final Roar, any critters seeded 6 or lower?

Final Roar history:
#2020MMM Seeds: 1 3 3 7
#2019MMM Seeds: 1 1 1 3
#2018MMM Seeds: 1 1 2 4
#2017MMM Seeds: 1 1 2 4
#2016MMM Seeds: 1 2 2 3
#2015MMM Seeds: 1 2 4 4
#2014MMM Seeds: 1 2 2 5
#2013MMM Seeds: 1 3 3 4

#2021MMM

If your #2021MMM Final Roar doesn’t have at least one 1 seed, and anything below a 5 seed you really might want to rethink your strategy. BUT, don’t overload on the 1 seeds, either, 2s, 3s and 4s frequently make it to the finals.

All THAT said, in #2021MMM there is only one comparatively small apex predator, zero tank-like large Herbivores, and an entire Division comprised of smallish oceangoing aliens. I have zero idea why a skunk sized extinct predator is higher than a Great Ape. Expect weird upsets.

OOOH.

One last thing. Pay attention to the #2021MMM Latin Binomials, docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

That #2021MMM combatant may not be the one you think it is...

So, who should your Champion be for #2021MMM?

You’ve got all the tools to determine that for yourself now, this is YOUR Bracket, remember?

But seriously, pick the Bay Cat or Jaguarundi.

#2021MMM