1/n
We are in a 5-alarm social justice emergency. But the culprits are those states whose populations claim to care the most about social justice. BLM support is tightly tied to repressive COVID policies that result in stunningly low access to education and high unemployment.
We are in a 5-alarm social justice emergency. But the culprits are those states whose populations claim to care the most about social justice. BLM support is tightly tied to repressive COVID policies that result in stunningly low access to education and high unemployment.
2/n
There is no link whatsoever between these stringency measures and decreased deaths. There IS a very strong link between these policies, high unemployment, and extremely limited access to education.
There is no link whatsoever between these stringency measures and decreased deaths. There IS a very strong link between these policies, high unemployment, and extremely limited access to education.
3/n
This is because these policies have nothing to do with science or health, and everything to do with politics. Race, BLM and COVID policies have been wildly politicized, which is why these policies have their tightest correlation with BLM support.
This is because these policies have nothing to do with science or health, and everything to do with politics. Race, BLM and COVID policies have been wildly politicized, which is why these policies have their tightest correlation with BLM support.
4/n
In a demonstration about how little BLM support has to do with concern for minorities, BLM support is also tightly linked to decreasing access to in-person education—and the electoral map. Showing that school access is pure politics.
In a demonstration about how little BLM support has to do with concern for minorities, BLM support is also tightly linked to decreasing access to in-person education—and the electoral map. Showing that school access is pure politics.
5/n
A look at stringency measures, also shows that stringency measures—which decrease almost linearly with “blueness,” have no link to deaths, but high correlation to high unemployment.
A look at stringency measures, also shows that stringency measures—which decrease almost linearly with “blueness,” have no link to deaths, but high correlation to high unemployment.
6/n
And yet govs like MA’s Charlie Baker enjoy 70%+ approval, w/only 3.5% of kids in traditional school, suggesting these measures, despite causing massive harm to minorities are incredibly popular with their BLM supporting populaces.
bostonglobe.com/2021/03/01/met…
And yet govs like MA’s Charlie Baker enjoy 70%+ approval, w/only 3.5% of kids in traditional school, suggesting these measures, despite causing massive harm to minorities are incredibly popular with their BLM supporting populaces.
bostonglobe.com/2021/03/01/met…
7/n
Unfortunately, this graph almost certainly has much to do with it. The people who make and write about policy in these states (as elsewhere) are doing very well, both professionally and personally, and their children are likely in school.
Unfortunately, this graph almost certainly has much to do with it. The people who make and write about policy in these states (as elsewhere) are doing very well, both professionally and personally, and their children are likely in school.
https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1352298738514059265
8/n
But there is another reason.
It has do with March's accidental genocide. The results of the deadly public health policies put in place then are now being used to justify other policies, which, while not as deadly, are equally skewed in their negative impacts.
But there is another reason.
It has do with March's accidental genocide. The results of the deadly public health policies put in place then are now being used to justify other policies, which, while not as deadly, are equally skewed in their negative impacts.
9/n
What has happened, is that own highest principles are being used against us, managing to get people who care deeply about social justice to support the most regressive, racist, classist health & education policies since Jim Crow.
Let’s explore.
What has happened, is that own highest principles are being used against us, managing to get people who care deeply about social justice to support the most regressive, racist, classist health & education policies since Jim Crow.
Let’s explore.
10/n
Lockdowns and repressive COVID policies DID cause a huge increase in deaths of minorities relative to other races during March and April. But as they were lifted and eased, that ceased to be the case—and has not been the case since September.
Lockdowns and repressive COVID policies DID cause a huge increase in deaths of minorities relative to other races during March and April. But as they were lifted and eased, that ceased to be the case—and has not been the case since September.
11/n
In Florida, which removed all statewide restrictions on 9/16, excess deaths by race have been roughly equal since that lifting, with blacks and Hispanics have lower levels of excess all-cause death than whites since the removal of those restrictions
In Florida, which removed all statewide restrictions on 9/16, excess deaths by race have been roughly equal since that lifting, with blacks and Hispanics have lower levels of excess all-cause death than whites since the removal of those restrictions
12/n
If we compare Florida to California, we see quite clearly that Florida, since removing all restrictions has enjoyed substantially lower deaths, and also that the difference across races actually favors non-whites. California is seeing the opposite.
If we compare Florida to California, we see quite clearly that Florida, since removing all restrictions has enjoyed substantially lower deaths, and also that the difference across races actually favors non-whites. California is seeing the opposite.
13/n
Looking more generally at several of the large states, and comparing their excess death/million by race relative to 2019 weekly deaths at the same time, we see that generally, states with higher stringency results in higher increase deaths of minorities relative to whites.
Looking more generally at several of the large states, and comparing their excess death/million by race relative to 2019 weekly deaths at the same time, we see that generally, states with higher stringency results in higher increase deaths of minorities relative to whites.
14/n
You see, there actually WAS an experiment in human sacrifice last spring. But it didn’t start on 4/29 in GA, as the Atlantic stated, but on 3/12, in the Northeast when we started locking down our entire country.
You see, there actually WAS an experiment in human sacrifice last spring. But it didn’t start on 4/29 in GA, as the Atlantic stated, but on 3/12, in the Northeast when we started locking down our entire country.
15/n
In doing this, the CDC abandoned its existing pandemic plan, in favor of a never-before-tried idea—lockdowns.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
In doing this, the CDC abandoned its existing pandemic plan, in favor of a never-before-tried idea—lockdowns.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
16/n
Even the data available at the time from the Imperial College--by way of China--was not such to justify this abandonment. Even if this WERE as bad as the Spanish flu, shutting down the country wasn’t in the tool box.
Even the data available at the time from the Imperial College--by way of China--was not such to justify this abandonment. Even if this WERE as bad as the Spanish flu, shutting down the country wasn’t in the tool box.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1362147282490175490
17/n
Based on the Korean case fatality rate (CFR) from March of 0.77%, we knew then COVID was at least 4x less deadly than the Spanish flu—but w/an average age of death of 80, vs. 28, as was the case for the Spanish flu.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Based on the Korean case fatality rate (CFR) from March of 0.77%, we knew then COVID was at least 4x less deadly than the Spanish flu—but w/an average age of death of 80, vs. 28, as was the case for the Spanish flu.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
18/n
The data from the Imperial College also told us that the risk was hugely stratified, 4000x more deadly for someone over 80 as under 20.
We now know, according to the CDC that it is significantly less even than this.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
The data from the Imperial College also told us that the risk was hugely stratified, 4000x more deadly for someone over 80 as under 20.
We now know, according to the CDC that it is significantly less even than this.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1362147565349834758
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
19/n
Epidemiological wisdom at the time was that with a disease like that harsh measures would kill more people.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Epidemiological wisdom at the time was that with a disease like that harsh measures would kill more people.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
20/n
And kill it did. The mechanism for this is, in a nutshell: the virus circulates wherever it can until it runs out of targets. If you remove the healthiest targets (young people, wealthy people who can work from home) the death toll will be higher.
And kill it did. The mechanism for this is, in a nutshell: the virus circulates wherever it can until it runs out of targets. If you remove the healthiest targets (young people, wealthy people who can work from home) the death toll will be higher.
21/n
Lockdowns mean that the virus can only circulate among those who can’t work from home, and those who must rely on others (the elderly). Thus, lockdowns amount essentially to a “protect the rich, infect the poor” or “survival of the fittest” public health policy.
Lockdowns mean that the virus can only circulate among those who can’t work from home, and those who must rely on others (the elderly). Thus, lockdowns amount essentially to a “protect the rich, infect the poor” or “survival of the fittest” public health policy.
22/n
In Boston, one of the places where this accidental genocide wrought its most devastating consequences, the distribution of cases is almost perfectly correlated with education. With the least educated neighborhoods having 8x the cases.
thepragmatist.co/post/lockdowns…
In Boston, one of the places where this accidental genocide wrought its most devastating consequences, the distribution of cases is almost perfectly correlated with education. With the least educated neighborhoods having 8x the cases.
thepragmatist.co/post/lockdowns…
23/n
It is hard to imagine that anyone could look at these graphs and say “You see those yellow parts, with those massive spikes in deaths that disproportionately impacted minorities? Those are the models. That’s what we want everyone to do.”
It is hard to imagine that anyone could look at these graphs and say “You see those yellow parts, with those massive spikes in deaths that disproportionately impacted minorities? Those are the models. That’s what we want everyone to do.”
24/n
And yet that is EXACTLY what our public health officials have said. They have repeatedly urged the rest of the country to be MORE like NYC, saying that it was a model for COVID infection control.
cnbc.com/2020/07/18/fau…
And yet that is EXACTLY what our public health officials have said. They have repeatedly urged the rest of the country to be MORE like NYC, saying that it was a model for COVID infection control.
cnbc.com/2020/07/18/fau…
25/N
How could anyone in their right mind look at this data and come to that conclusion? I have said I believe that this was an “accidental genocide.” But just because it was an accident, doesn’t mean we should pretend it didn’t happen.
How could anyone in their right mind look at this data and come to that conclusion? I have said I believe that this was an “accidental genocide.” But just because it was an accident, doesn’t mean we should pretend it didn’t happen.
26/n
These people were the victims of the well-intentioned hubris of the Medical-Scholastic Industrial Complex, of a group of medico-political decision makers who have long-since abandoned the humility at the core of the Hippocratic Oath.
These people were the victims of the well-intentioned hubris of the Medical-Scholastic Industrial Complex, of a group of medico-political decision makers who have long-since abandoned the humility at the core of the Hippocratic Oath.
27/n
But rather than being held to account, these spring victims are being used to continue to justify the same fatal policies that killed them. To add insult to mortal injury, they are being used to keep children—especially minorities—out of school, and businesses closed.
But rather than being held to account, these spring victims are being used to continue to justify the same fatal policies that killed them. To add insult to mortal injury, they are being used to keep children—especially minorities—out of school, and businesses closed.
28/n
By substituting “systemic racism” as the cause for these disparities, rather than their own policies, politicians & public health officials instantly shifted the blame and politicized the response. This is why stringency correlates so strongly BLM—but not COVID.
By substituting “systemic racism” as the cause for these disparities, rather than their own policies, politicians & public health officials instantly shifted the blame and politicized the response. This is why stringency correlates so strongly BLM—but not COVID.
29/n
Harsh restrictions that caused the deaths of so many minorities in April and May are now being used as a pretext for keeping children out of school, even though since September, we no longer see any higher excess death/capita in minorities than in whites.
Harsh restrictions that caused the deaths of so many minorities in April and May are now being used as a pretext for keeping children out of school, even though since September, we no longer see any higher excess death/capita in minorities than in whites.
30/n
Nationally, once lockdowns ceased being the dominant tool for managing infections, deaths under 45, also, returned to baseline levels. cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
Nationally, once lockdowns ceased being the dominant tool for managing infections, deaths under 45, also, returned to baseline levels. cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
31/n
In states like Massachusetts and New York City, where COVID has been endemic since the end of May, there is no excess death in any age group, except a very slight bump in over 65—not the teachers who are supposedly at-risk.
In states like Massachusetts and New York City, where COVID has been endemic since the end of May, there is no excess death in any age group, except a very slight bump in over 65—not the teachers who are supposedly at-risk.
32/n
In states like Washington, Oregon and Maine, all with fewer than 3% of their children w/access to 5-day, traditional in-person school, deaths in 2020 look no different in any age group than deaths from any other year.
In states like Washington, Oregon and Maine, all with fewer than 3% of their children w/access to 5-day, traditional in-person school, deaths in 2020 look no different in any age group than deaths from any other year.
33/n
While red state America has largely returned to normal, w/no discernible difference in COVID deaths relative to blue states, blue state America continues to be ground down by the crushing “beneficence” of the medical-scholastic industrial complex.
While red state America has largely returned to normal, w/no discernible difference in COVID deaths relative to blue states, blue state America continues to be ground down by the crushing “beneficence” of the medical-scholastic industrial complex.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357531608534900739
34/n
These measures were supposed to provide the ability to return to normal. The opposite has been true. Most of the children in these states have missed an entire year of school. Their peers in red states have been in school in-person since August.
These measures were supposed to provide the ability to return to normal. The opposite has been true. Most of the children in these states have missed an entire year of school. Their peers in red states have been in school in-person since August.
35/n
To put this into perspective, there are more children in traditional, 5-day, full-time in-person school in Texas and Florida alone (pop. 50 M), than in all of blue-state America (pop. 180M).
To put this into perspective, there are more children in traditional, 5-day, full-time in-person school in Texas and Florida alone (pop. 50 M), than in all of blue-state America (pop. 180M).
36/n
High unemployment is also a result, if not the GOAL of these policies.
Pres. Biden’s plan ties spending to the level of unemployment—not population—suggesting that dems KNOW stringency measures don't decrease death, but DO INCREASE UNEMPLOYMENT.
bostonglobe.com/2021/03/02/nat…
High unemployment is also a result, if not the GOAL of these policies.
Pres. Biden’s plan ties spending to the level of unemployment—not population—suggesting that dems KNOW stringency measures don't decrease death, but DO INCREASE UNEMPLOYMENT.
bostonglobe.com/2021/03/02/nat…
37/n
In blue states, we suffer the extraordinary harms of these failed public “health” policies, despite extraordinary compliance with these soul- and society-crushing public health measures.
In blue states, we suffer the extraordinary harms of these failed public “health” policies, despite extraordinary compliance with these soul- and society-crushing public health measures.
38/n
Until the work-from-homers can come to terms with their real relative risk—which is trivial—and make the decision to live with the disease, and shoulder their share of the immunological burden, those others less fortunate will continue to be crushed under these policies.
Until the work-from-homers can come to terms with their real relative risk—which is trivial—and make the decision to live with the disease, and shoulder their share of the immunological burden, those others less fortunate will continue to be crushed under these policies.
37/n
This chart is from NYC, and shows that in NYC, where nearly 2.3 million people were infected, only 81 died without co-morbidities—likely due to excessive use of ventilation. Making their risk less than that from accidental death.
thepragmatist.co/post/nearly-60…
This chart is from NYC, and shows that in NYC, where nearly 2.3 million people were infected, only 81 died without co-morbidities—likely due to excessive use of ventilation. Making their risk less than that from accidental death.
thepragmatist.co/post/nearly-60…
38/n
We are the problem. We have the analytical skills to call bullshit on the CDC, on the media. The CDC has published copious amounts of data that make this call possible, but their marketing arm continues to get far more attention from the media than their scientific arm.
We are the problem. We have the analytical skills to call bullshit on the CDC, on the media. The CDC has published copious amounts of data that make this call possible, but their marketing arm continues to get far more attention from the media than their scientific arm.
/n
There IS a code-red social justice emergency happening. But it is not COVID. It is the response to COVID, and the culpability is widespread. It’s not just the teachers unions, or just the CDC, or just the media, or just the public health community, or just the politicians—
There IS a code-red social justice emergency happening. But it is not COVID. It is the response to COVID, and the culpability is widespread. It’s not just the teachers unions, or just the CDC, or just the media, or just the public health community, or just the politicians—
39/n
It lies with all of us not holding them to account, in not demanding that they acknowledge their gross misfeasance last March, and stop using it as a tool to perpetuate further injustices.
/end
It lies with all of us not holding them to account, in not demanding that they acknowledge their gross misfeasance last March, and stop using it as a tool to perpetuate further injustices.
/end
Continue the thread here: I accidentally forked it:
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1366851445039988745
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