1/many
COVID has been politicized. Children and families in blue states are paying the price. On average, in red states, 3x as many children have access to 100%, 5-day/week in-person learning as in blue. Nearly 4x as many children in blue states are 100% remote (sources @ end)
COVID has been politicized. Children and families in blue states are paying the price. On average, in red states, 3x as many children have access to 100%, 5-day/week in-person learning as in blue. Nearly 4x as many children in blue states are 100% remote (sources @ end)
2/n
This politicization is not saving lives. The average deaths/million in red states is only slightly higher than those in blue states, despite measures that are nearly twice as strict. Follow me for state-by-state data…
This politicization is not saving lives. The average deaths/million in red states is only slightly higher than those in blue states, despite measures that are nearly twice as strict. Follow me for state-by-state data…
3/n
11 states have fewer than 10% of students w/access to 5-day per week in-person learning. All are blue save 1. 10 states have 70% or more children w/access to 100% in-person learning. All are red states.
11 states have fewer than 10% of students w/access to 5-day per week in-person learning. All are blue save 1. 10 states have 70% or more children w/access to 100% in-person learning. All are red states.
4/n
There is no relationship between in-person learning, and case spread.
There is no relationship between in-person learning, and case spread.
5/n
There is very strong relationship between stringency measures, and likelihood of children being offered in-person instruction. In theory, these measures were to help to open up. The opposite has proved true.
There is very strong relationship between stringency measures, and likelihood of children being offered in-person instruction. In theory, these measures were to help to open up. The opposite has proved true.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357542666163085312
6/n
The states that have chosen to “live with the disease” have managed to open up their schools and their economies, with no meaningful increase in mortality.
The states that have chosen to “live with the disease” have managed to open up their schools and their economies, with no meaningful increase in mortality.
7/n
The media bears a large part of this burden, for lauding every blue state politician, regardless of their record, and damning every red state politician.
The media bears a large part of this burden, for lauding every blue state politician, regardless of their record, and damning every red state politician.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357546797644853248
8/n
They further bear responsibility for creating panic and obscuring the fact that at no point outside of NY, according to publicly available HHS data have hospitals anywhere been overwhelmed. app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
They further bear responsibility for creating panic and obscuring the fact that at no point outside of NY, according to publicly available HHS data have hospitals anywhere been overwhelmed. app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
9/n
They have damned any scientist that dare suggest that population immunity might play a part in the fall in deaths in places like NY and MA. Or that T-cell-mediated immunity might also be important.
They have damned any scientist that dare suggest that population immunity might play a part in the fall in deaths in places like NY and MA. Or that T-cell-mediated immunity might also be important.
10/n
They have damned anyone, scientist or otherwise, suggesting that case rates might be falling due to saturation or seasonality, despite copious amounts of data that that may in fact be happening.
They have damned anyone, scientist or otherwise, suggesting that case rates might be falling due to saturation or seasonality, despite copious amounts of data that that may in fact be happening.
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1358490412705538055
11/n
Doing so, they likely gave a false sense of security to places like California that did not see strong spring peaks, and attributed falling cases to harsh measures, thereby leaving them flat-footed for the fall.
Doing so, they likely gave a false sense of security to places like California that did not see strong spring peaks, and attributed falling cases to harsh measures, thereby leaving them flat-footed for the fall.
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1359235921241989122
12/n
They have ignored copious amounts of published data—including from the CDC—showing that the mortality rate is significantly lower than initially thought.
They have ignored copious amounts of published data—including from the CDC—showing that the mortality rate is significantly lower than initially thought.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357541858151391235
13/n
They have deliberately confused people by referring to the Case Fatality Rate (observed deaths over observed cases), and shouted down anyone who dare mention the Infection Fatality Rate (deaths over ALL cases).
who.int/bulletin/onlin…
They have deliberately confused people by referring to the Case Fatality Rate (observed deaths over observed cases), and shouted down anyone who dare mention the Infection Fatality Rate (deaths over ALL cases).
who.int/bulletin/onlin…
14/n
They have given voice to scientists and doctors who have exaggerated the risk to those under 45, and denied the costs to this same group, even though once strict measures were remove, no excess deaths were seen in this group.
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
They have given voice to scientists and doctors who have exaggerated the risk to those under 45, and denied the costs to this same group, even though once strict measures were remove, no excess deaths were seen in this group.
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
15/n
They have refused to even try to put things in context, to ask questions. To ask hospitals for hospitalizations during the same time in prior years, to highlight easily accessible data that shows COVID deaths relative to prior years.
They have refused to even try to put things in context, to ask questions. To ask hospitals for hospitalizations during the same time in prior years, to highlight easily accessible data that shows COVID deaths relative to prior years.
16/n
They have pretended that these measures are normal, proven, expected, when the opposite is true. Even for something like the 1918 flu, which infected 500M, and killed 50-100M (30x worse than COVID), voluntary quarantine is only “recommended”.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
They have pretended that these measures are normal, proven, expected, when the opposite is true. Even for something like the 1918 flu, which infected 500M, and killed 50-100M (30x worse than COVID), voluntary quarantine is only “recommended”.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
17/n
They have ignored published data—by the CDC—and many others that shows there is no scientific proof that these measures work.
They have ignored published data—by the CDC—and many others that shows there is no scientific proof that these measures work.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357535298486497284
18/n
Worse still, they have ignored that the actions taken were EXPECTED to make this more deadly.
Worse still, they have ignored that the actions taken were EXPECTED to make this more deadly.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357537290126557187
19/n
Then paid no attention to data showing that the actual result was to create a public health policy that was effectively “protect the rich, infect the poor.”
rationalground.com/lockdowns-syst…
Then paid no attention to data showing that the actual result was to create a public health policy that was effectively “protect the rich, infect the poor.”
rationalground.com/lockdowns-syst…
20/n
And that these policies put at especial risk, the vulnerable elderly populations.
And that these policies put at especial risk, the vulnerable elderly populations.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1357538289834729476
21/n
In doing all of this, they have helped to shift the focus of blame off of politicians (and themselves), and onto our citizenry, accusing us of not complying, when we complied for MONTHS.
In doing all of this, they have helped to shift the focus of blame off of politicians (and themselves), and onto our citizenry, accusing us of not complying, when we complied for MONTHS.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1352340496644001795
22/n
The question remains, why? I believe there are a few potential answers.
The question remains, why? I believe there are a few potential answers.
23/n
First, the collateral damage is nearly limitless. If it comes out that this has not all been “worth it,” the damage to the reputations to those who stone-walled all dissent will be monumental.
First, the collateral damage is nearly limitless. If it comes out that this has not all been “worth it,” the damage to the reputations to those who stone-walled all dissent will be monumental.
24/n
Second, the media is in the business of getting people to read its content. Division and fear sell. “If it bleeds, it leads.” The onus is on us to remember that at all times.
Second, the media is in the business of getting people to read its content. Division and fear sell. “If it bleeds, it leads.” The onus is on us to remember that at all times.
25/n
Third, it may actually be a positive thing for many of them.
Third, it may actually be a positive thing for many of them.
https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1352298738514059265
26/n
Lastly, many may actually be acting out of fear, having tied themselves into such knots of panic, they cannot see straight.
Lastly, many may actually be acting out of fear, having tied themselves into such knots of panic, they cannot see straight.
27/n
Whatever the cause, we must, as citizens start demanding more. More honesty, more humility, more nuance, more context form the media, and from our public health officials.
Whatever the cause, we must, as citizens start demanding more. More honesty, more humility, more nuance, more context form the media, and from our public health officials.
28/n
This is just as important for the longevity of these institutions as for us. We need these institutions. They have failed us this time. But we must hold them accountable, and help them to re-build themselves in a way that serves us—not them.
This is just as important for the longevity of these institutions as for us. We need these institutions. They have failed us this time. But we must hold them accountable, and help them to re-build themselves in a way that serves us—not them.
29/n
Sources:
School status: cai.burbio.com/school-opening…
Stringency: wallethub.com/edu/states-cor…
Mobility data: delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/time…
Mask compliance data: delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/time…
Death data: cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
Sources:
School status: cai.burbio.com/school-opening…
Stringency: wallethub.com/edu/states-cor…
Mobility data: delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/time…
Mask compliance data: delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/time…
Death data: cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
@threadreaderapp unroll please
This is not the thread, this is a correction: I accidentally put NC as blue, and GA as red. The analysis does not change much (deaths are closer to even, schools virtually identical), but here is it, w/Nat'l average:
This is not the actual thread, this is a correction. Statements above are still accurate, but I accidentally put NC in the "blue" column, and Arizona in the "red" column. Update here.
Sorry, Arizona, not Georgia. Sheesh.
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