COVID has been politicized. Children and families in blue states are paying the price. On average, in red states, 3x as many children have access to 100%, 5-day/week in-person learning as in blue. Nearly 4x as many children in blue states are 100% remote (sources @ end)
This politicization is not saving lives. The average deaths/million in red states is only slightly higher than those in blue states, despite measures that are nearly twice as strict. Follow me for state-by-state data…
11 states have fewer than 10% of students w/access to 5-day per week in-person learning. All are blue save 1. 10 states have 70% or more children w/access to 100% in-person learning. All are red states.
There is no relationship between in-person learning, and case spread.
There is very strong relationship between stringency measures, and likelihood of children being offered in-person instruction. In theory, these measures were to help to open up. The opposite has proved true.

The states that have chosen to “live with the disease” have managed to open up their schools and their economies, with no meaningful increase in mortality.
The media bears a large part of this burden, for lauding every blue state politician, regardless of their record, and damning every red state politician.
They further bear responsibility for creating panic and obscuring the fact that at no point outside of NY, according to publicly available HHS data have hospitals anywhere been overwhelmed. app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
They have damned any scientist that dare suggest that population immunity might play a part in the fall in deaths in places like NY and MA. Or that T-cell-mediated immunity might also be important.
They have damned anyone, scientist or otherwise, suggesting that case rates might be falling due to saturation or seasonality, despite copious amounts of data that that may in fact be happening.
Doing so, they likely gave a false sense of security to places like California that did not see strong spring peaks, and attributed falling cases to harsh measures, thereby leaving them flat-footed for the fall.

They have ignored copious amounts of published data—including from the CDC—showing that the mortality rate is significantly lower than initially thought.
They have deliberately confused people by referring to the Case Fatality Rate (observed deaths over observed cases), and shouted down anyone who dare mention the Infection Fatality Rate (deaths over ALL cases).
They have given voice to scientists and doctors who have exaggerated the risk to those under 45, and denied the costs to this same group, even though once strict measures were remove, no excess deaths were seen in this group.
They have refused to even try to put things in context, to ask questions. To ask hospitals for hospitalizations during the same time in prior years, to highlight easily accessible data that shows COVID deaths relative to prior years.
They have pretended that these measures are normal, proven, expected, when the opposite is true. Even for something like the 1918 flu, which infected 500M, and killed 50-100M (30x worse than COVID), voluntary quarantine is only “recommended”.
They have ignored published data—by the CDC—and many others that shows there is no scientific proof that these measures work.
Worse still, they have ignored that the actions taken were EXPECTED to make this more deadly.
Then paid no attention to data showing that the actual result was to create a public health policy that was effectively “protect the rich, infect the poor.”

And that these policies put at especial risk, the vulnerable elderly populations.
In doing all of this, they have helped to shift the focus of blame off of politicians (and themselves), and onto our citizenry, accusing us of not complying, when we complied for MONTHS.
The question remains, why? I believe there are a few potential answers.
First, the collateral damage is nearly limitless. If it comes out that this has not all been “worth it,” the damage to the reputations to those who stone-walled all dissent will be monumental.
Second, the media is in the business of getting people to read its content. Division and fear sell. “If it bleeds, it leads.” The onus is on us to remember that at all times.
Third, it may actually be a positive thing for many of them.
Lastly, many may actually be acting out of fear, having tied themselves into such knots of panic, they cannot see straight.
Whatever the cause, we must, as citizens start demanding more. More honesty, more humility, more nuance, more context form the media, and from our public health officials.
This is just as important for the longevity of these institutions as for us. We need these institutions. They have failed us this time. But we must hold them accountable, and help them to re-build themselves in a way that serves us—not them.
@threadreaderapp unroll please
This is not the thread, this is a correction: I accidentally put NC as blue, and GA as red. The analysis does not change much (deaths are closer to even, schools virtually identical), but here is it, w/Nat'l average:
This is not the actual thread, this is a correction. Statements above are still accurate, but I accidentally put NC in the "blue" column, and Arizona in the "red" column. Update here.
Sorry, Arizona, not Georgia. Sheesh.

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More from @Emily_Burns_V

8 Feb
#NormPorn is a thing. This video should not have gotten near 100K views in 3 days.

People want normal. #NormPorn coupled with data that shows that #OldNormal does not lead to worse outcomes may be our best weapon.

Below, a guide to producing #NormPorn


Do not show #NormPorn where people are defying local rules. This will only emboldens those who say the infection is driven by small pockets of recalcitrant anti-maskers.

When posting photos or videos of businesses, do not allow the businesses to be recognizable, as the mask mafia is everywhere, even in sane places.

Do use video if at all possible, and start with video, as it captures people.
Read 6 tweets
5 Feb
Last weekend I escaped to Florida from Massachusetts, the fascist hellhole I am cursed to call home.

Everything you have heard is true. They have real people there, not the zombies that people the blue wastelands.

People smile, they laugh, they acknowledge you. Join me
I was in Miami, where there is a mask mandate which is mercifully unenforceable. On the boardwalk, 75% of people were un-masked. In town 50% of people on the sidewalks were un-masked. Miami has lower activity than much of the state, at 60% of normal
It was enough for humanity-starved soul like me.

The restaurants were packed, no plexi-glass in sight, and only those catering to the most affluent (and hence “liberal”) appeared to have any reduced capacity at all.
Read 77 tweets
22 Jan
@DLeonhardt 1/n
Don’t you find it even a little odd lecturing other states on how to handle COVID, when NYC, where your publisher resides, has the highest death count in the world 3170/million? That is almost 3x the national average of 1271.
@DLeonhardt 2/n
It is more than every single state. In fact, it is more than double every single state except, NJ, NY, MA, RI, MS, CT, SD, ND, LA, AZ, and IL. It is 3x higher than 20 states.
@DLeonhardt 3/n
It is 4x higher than 10 states: NC, OK, KY, NH, VA, WA,UT, OR, MA, AL, VT, and HI. It is more than double every single country in Europe—and NYC has a larger population than 28 out of 48 countries.
Read 15 tweets
20 Jan
Over the weekend, I experienced a truly amazing thing—a functioning society. I left dystopian Massachusetts for Utah, and in Utah I found a packed airport and the closest thing to normal I have experienced in 10 months.
I went to busy restaurants every night, and two of the three nights got to listen to live music, including—gasp—live singing and a band! After skiing, we sat around a firepit drinking, and met new people.
I met a friend whom I haven’t seen in a year and gave her a hug, without either of us giving a second thought. I met family and extended family; all greeted us with a warm embrace, a wide smile, and quickly ushered us inside.
Read 26 tweets
20 Dec 20
Meet Jo. Jo is a 20-something MPH who works for the CDC. Jo’s model is being used to decide who gets vaccinated in the U.S. Jo is a proud American who lives on “occupied Mvskoke land”.

cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/… ImageImage
Jo is a scientist, but rather than use the reported vaccine efficacy (90-100%), Jo’s model used an estimate of 70%. Jo's model also doesn't take into account the highly age-stratified risk of COVID published by the CDC.

The CDC says the risk of death is 270x higher for 70+ as those aged 18-50. Jo’s model ignored the highly lethal nature of this disease to the elderly, so Jo was able to recommend that younger essential workers be prioritized above the elderly, because the elderly are whiter.
Read 11 tweets
15 Dec 20

The Hippocratic oath is not a question or a suggestion. It is a command. “DO NO HARM.” Doctors SWEAR to be CERTAIN their cures are not worse than the disease.

Strategies to “Stop the spread” are now without question causing greater harm than the disease.

Here's how... Image

1 IN 4 excess US deaths IS NOT A COVID DEATH

People under 45 had the largest increase in deaths—nearly 20%. Only ¼ of those were COVID.


There are 190 Million people in the US under 45.

There are 210 million people—63.5% of the U.S. under 50. Those people are 3x more likely to die of lockdowns than COVID. Their risk of death from COVID is less or equal to their risk of death from flu.


cdc.gov/coronavirus/20… Image
Read 20 tweets

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