Thread by @IanDunt

I am very hungover on Budget Day. Please take this warning from me of my mistakes: Never, ever be very hungover on Budget day.

If I survive the next few hours, I'm doing an event at the Leeds Literary Festival tonight at 7pm, where my withered alcohol encrusted corpse will be answering questions about liberalism and nationalism. Free to join. leedslitfest.co.uk/whats-on/all-s…

A day of unspeakable hell begins with PMQs may God have mercy on us all parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f9…

Starmer asks Johnson if he agrees with President Biden that arm sales should be stopped to Yemen. The US has stopped. The UK hasn't.

Why does the PM think it;s right to be selling these weapons, given what we know about the humanitarian consequences. Bit of dribble from Johnson in response, "continue scrupulously to follow the humanitarian guidance".

Starmer: Says the system on arms sales is robust.. Clearly not that robust, the UK lost a court case over it a couple years ago. What will it take for he PM to suspend arm sales to Saudi Arabia.

Nothing from Johnson. Starmer: This week the govt decided to halve aid to Yemen, despite evidence of famine. "How on earth can the PM justify selling arms to Saudi Arabia and cutting aid to people starving in Yemen?"

Johnson: "Current straightened circumstances - I'm sure the people of this country understand - mean that temporarily we must reduce aid spending" but Britain will still "step up to the plate" for the people of Yemen.

Starmer asks Johnson to urgently reconsider the cut to aid to Yemen. Johnson: "In these tough straightened circumstances, the people of this country should be very very proud of what we are doing."

Starmer: Cutting the international aid budget breaks your manifesto. If you will press ahead with it, it should be put to a vote in the Commons. Will you? Johnson obviously doesn't answer, continues about having a record the people of the country can be proud of.

Really gross from Johnson. Suggests asking about Yemen is in some way of an indifference to Britain. "He could have asked anything about the coronavirus pandemic, instead he's concentrated his questions entirely towards the interests of the people of Yemen."

He can never quite hide the sinister reactionary aspects of his personality, despite all the fake bonhomie.

Little jab from the Speaker there on Budget leaks. Johnson says "shortly you'll be hearing a Budget for recovery." Speaker replies: "I think I already know most of it."

The more I think about it, the more annoying that Johnson line was. Really pernicious insinuation. And from the *actual* former foreign secretary.

Anyway, Budget starts in a bit. Things won't improve.

Sunak says he wants to be "honest" about fixing public finances. He really couldn't be less honest. There is zero economic need to have a debate abut borrowing right now. It is an entirely self-interested political initiative.

Lots of sensible stuff - and some less sensible - on support during covid. But we're now onto Sunak prepping for tax rises.

The key here is what 'during recovery' really means.

Sunak says the amount we borrowed is only comparable to that during the world wars. It;s the work of governments over decades to pay it back. "It would be irresponsible to allow our future borrowing and debt to rise unchecked."

"While our borrowing costs are affordable right now interest rates and inflation might not stay low forever." The point at which they rise is the point when you can afford to raise taxes, because the economy is running.

Very silent in Commons before Sunak goes into the details of what this means.

Freezing personal tax thresholds from next year to April 2026. Higher rate threshold freezes from next year over same period. "Nobodies take-home pay will be less than it is now." He doesn't say so, but this will push an estimated 1.6 million people into a higher tax bracket.

Corporation tax increases to 25% in 2023.

The date is at least far off. But the problem here is that we simply don't know what the fuck our economy is going to look like at that stage, given variables on pandemic, variants, inflation after lockdown ends etc.

A completely pointless and self-defeating commitment to make in the dark.

Strangely complex little rabbit in form of cutting tax bills for firms investing. It sounds sensible.

Freeports fuck my life.

Freeports are the worst rabbit in the hat Budget announcement I have ever seen. Firstly because they've been banging on about them for years. And secondly because they're shit.

Right, that's done now thank God. Starmer now responds. This is one of the toughest moments in parliament for the leader of the oppoition, speaking on a complex document you've only just seen.

Not bad from Starmer, on a tough brief. His comments welcoming corporation tax going up until 2023 suggests he'll probably support it then if there's economic recovery. Right to criticise council tax.

And he did at least have the sense to mention Brexit, something which the chancellor did not see fit to do, except to make up some nonsense about freeports.

It's extraordinary, even now, that as businesses go bust as a result of a deal, we just got a Budget which acted as if none of it ever happened.

This event was great. Except for when I was asked for the best book on the English civil war and recommended God's Fury, England's Fire by Brian Braddock. Brian Braddock is Captain Britain.

The book is actually by Michael Braddick.

The missus is still laughing at the notion of a Captain Britain. "Is he like Captain America but shit?"

I am incensed.