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Rob Ford Profile picture
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3 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Basically everything laid out here by David Shor re the US Dems 2016-20 has also happened to Labour since 2010, except the bit where minority voters defect to the right. And if Trump can win minority votes, then I suspect a Johnson/Sunak/Patel Con party could also...
This big realignment around education, and the potential tensions this creates between identity liberal white voters and BAME voters who are more socially conservative (even on some identity issues) are big themes of my book with @ProfSobolewska Brexitland
@ProfSobolewska Rest of the Shor interview is well worth reading - nymag.com/intelligencer/…
@ProfSobolewska Sorry to come across all fanboy, but this is like the best one short paragraph summary of the Brexitland thesis I've come across, and its a US analyst talking about their elections! So I guess there really are strong transatlantic parallels right now

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
3 Mar
One year in, and still the message that outdoors is just vastly safer than indoors still hasn't got through. Let people hang around in parks. The risk is tiny.
See, for example, here
"super-spreading—the biggest driver of the pandemic—appears to be an exclusively indoor phenomenon. I’ve been tracking every report I can find for the past year, and have yet to find a confirmed super-spreading event that occurred solely outdoors".FFS let ppl have their park cans
Read 8 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Mar
I regret to inform you Eric Kaufmann has b en running dodgy surveys again. 2-4% response rate raises some concerns...
Plus the signature EK “analysis” where he presents an alarming-sounding percentage while burying the tiny sample (22 in this case) its derived from
This is literally stuff we fail students for on intro quant methods classes. @patricksturg you may be interested in checking through this latest example of duff survey research
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
1 Mar
This was predictable, and predicted, by many who urged govt to act sooner in November/December. Great successes in 2021 on vaccine rollout should not blind us to the huge policy failure which immediately preceded it - a policy failure which cost thousands of lives.
Lets not forget either the many voices in the media demanding Johnson and the govt "save Christmas", lobbying which ignored all health advice at the time. Many of the same people are now demanding the govt again ignore public health advice and accelerate reopening.
Responses to this illustrate, rather depressingly, that those inclined to give the govt an easy ride have an already worked out counter-narrative "it was the new variant". This did play a role, but so did policy. Earlier, tougher restrictions would have reduced this massive spike
Read 6 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
27 Feb
Good to see Cardiff University standing up to Williamson and the misleading Policy Exchange report.

Still no sign of any apology from Policy Exchange or @epkaufm for misleading the Education Secretary and the nation for their error
@epkaufm Instead they snuck a correction into their report in the middle of the night, without acknowledgement. Since then they have continued to insist they did nothing wrong. This is not how research is supposed to work.
@epkaufm "Riordan says Cardiff wrote to Policy Exchange in 2019 asking for a retraction, and Mansfield promised to write a footnote correcting the mistake, but did not do so. After criticism on social media, the thinktank added a footnote last week to say the event had taken place."
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
25 Feb
But AFAF, who you cite in your policy exchange report, repeatedly treat student protests in their “banned list” as an an attack on academic freedom. Including many cases where the event being protested goes ahead.

So is student protest free speech or an attack on free speech?
Fwiw my view is the context abs specifics matter. A violent or disruptive process which threatens or shuts down others is a priori a more credible example of threatening free speech. A non-violent expression of opposition is not.
But that’s kind of the point: the AFAF list pays no attention to context abs classifies wildly different kinds of student protest as “banning”.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
23 Feb
What's remarkable about this "banned list" - much cited by those claiming a free speech crisis - is how most of the events on the list either (a) do not involve a ban and/or (b) do not involve activities/decisions of unis or other academics:

afaf.org.uk/the-banned-lis…
This is why the detail matters - this list is cited in the Policy Exchange report now used by the govt as a "list of no-platforming and other academic controversies", with the claim it shows a rising trend of such instances. So it matters if many are nothing of the sort.
And many aren't:
Clark, Feb 2021 - not banned, and critics not academics or institutional
Phelps, Feb 2021 - not banned, cancelled due to a controversy not relating to fellow academics or the institution
Todd, Feb 2021 - not banned, and critics not academics or institutional
Read 22 tweets

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