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Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
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3 Mar, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium cratering, now trading over 4% below net asset value. Tens of billions of $$$ are trapped and can’t get out. No buyers.
You can manipulate prices on unregulated exchanges with scam stablecoins. On real markets where you need real USD, not so much.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium -5.2%.
Getting uglier every day.
FYI Grayscale stands for half of all "institutional money" in Bitcoin, as per Goldman's research. And now those institutions are getting buttrekt. How will this attract more bagholders? It won't.
Now the $GBTC premium is -7%. Barry Silbert managed to leverage mild retail buying into a “smart money” stampede by selling them the idea of arbitrage - buy at NAV, sell to retail suckers at a premium. It worked well until people tried to cash out - a recurrent theme in crypto.
Expect trapped institutions hedge their bags - by selling Bitcoin futures for example. It would be a sweet trade, with Bitcoin December CME futures trading at ~15% premium.
This would lead to a collapse in futures term premium, putting an end to a lot of DeFi carry trades.
All these 200% APRs for “liquidity providers” worked as long as people were FOMOing in, paying for all kinds of unsustainable promises for a few months.
The DeFi revolution was short lived, and just another zero-sum crapshoot. With huge fees and insider self-dealings, as always.

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More from @Tr0llyTr0llFace

Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
5 Mar
Michael Saylor's stated strategy to load up $MSTR with debt to buy Bitcoin is a mathematical guarantee of bankruptcy.
Remember $XIV, the "short volatility" ETF that went bust when the VIX jumped 100%? HSBC had written in the prospectus of the fund that was going to happen.
In the case of $XIV, you knew that an event where the VIX goes up by 100% in a single day is very unlikely, however, over a very long period of time, it's a certainty. Let's say the probability of that happening on any given day was only 0.1%. This means that the probability...
of it NOT happening is 99.9%, on any single day. But if you intend to hold your ETF for longer periods, the probability of the ETF not going bust over 10 days is down to 99% (99.9% ^ 10), over 100 days - down to 90.5% (99.9% ^ 100), and over 1000 days - down to 37%.
Read 5 tweets
Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
5 Mar
I've been ranting about this for almost 2 months now.
To answer all those who are asking "how can I arbitrage this", the answer is, you can't.
Because the SEC doesn't want a Bitcoin ETF, it only allowed $GBTC to exist with one huge caveat: it's a closed-end fund.
A consequence of that is that $GBTC can't redeem shares. They never got that "exemptive relief" from the SEC (excerpt from their IPO prospectus below). Which means that you can buy $GBTC at a discount to NAV feeling smug, but what are you going to do if the discount goes to -30%? Image
The only way to milk a discount is to buy a very large stake in $GBTC, and then vote to liquidate the trust in the next shareholder GA - you'll then get your bags of Bitcoin. But then the market will know that you got a crapload of Bitcoin that you probably intend to sell.
Read 5 tweets
Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
2 Mar
Crazy how Tether Leaks stopped overnight.
Originally, I had 3 theories:
1. They are legit.
2. They are fake, produced for the lols.
3. They are fake, produced by Tether to discredit Tether Truthers.

We can rule out 2 because of how messy they were. If I had to fabricate emails,
I wouldn’t chose as a recipient a little-known “Nancy” that hasn’t worked at Deltec since 2017. I would pick someone high up the food chain.
This leaves “legit” and “fake, to discredit Tether Truthers”.
Are they legit? The leakers said that they want to talk to a journalist.
But every journalist I know passed. They didn’t have any inside information - everything they published could have been found online.
This leaves us with one source for the fake leaks: Tether itself.
They’ve already used fake accounts before, to discredit @Bitfinexed.
Read 7 tweets
Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
2 Mar
This meme of "dollar isn't backed" just won't die in the sterilised bubble of Bitcoin bagholders' echo chamber.
Fiat currencies are all backed by debt - very overcollateralized, even. A thread.
Dollars are created when anyone - you, me, Boeing Corp - takes out a loan from a bank.
When you sign your mortgage contract, you get your $200,000 - and the bank gets the right to get repaid that $200,000 plus interest, over time, by you. So the $200,000 in your pocket are backed by your own fiduciary duty to repay the debt you contracted when they were created.
In fact, the net amount of fiat created by banks is zero - because all money in circulation will be used to repay the debts that were created when it was issued. This creates a perpetual demand for fiat - people will do whatever they can to get fiat to repay their debts.
Read 12 tweets
Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
27 Feb
The latest Tether leak is an email from Tether to Deltec, dated May 3, 2020, asking for help in "presenting their reserves in the best possible light". Their reserves being stakes in other crypto companies, and things in that area. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle. 1/n
Tether started printing like crazy in March 2020, as the market was getting destroyed because of the coronavirus. At the same time, Binance decided to switch from Bitcoin to USDT as collateral for leveraged trading. I always wondered what each party got in that deal. 2/n
It looks like Tether got a stake in Binance. In exchange, Tether probably ploughed what they had in reserves at that point (they did have some cash) to save the crypto markets from certain death, as everyone was trying to sell their magic Ponzi beans at the same time. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Trolly🐴 McTrollface 🌷🥀💩 Profile picture
25 Feb
Crypto victims see a number on a screen and think that because this number exists, it must mean that there’s value that justifies it. And they’re ready to believe any fairytale that validates this belief.
That’s how you get something for nothing. By mesmerising suckers.
Don’t be a sucker. Ask why a thing is worth something - anything. Don’t be impressed by word salads. Everything in this world can be explained with words a five year old will understand. If an explanation can’t part with bullshit like “byzantine fault tolerance”, it’s a scam.
When you buy something, there’s someone who’s selling it to you. That someone has owned that thing for a while, and he knows much more than you about it. So if you think that buying that thing is such a slam dunk, why is that guy who knows much more than you, selling it?
Read 5 tweets

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