Politics aside, this report on young people moving TO New York bc of lower rents — a sort of partial de-gentrification — is interesting and, I think, hopeful 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It reminded me of an old but very good paper by Glaeser and Gyourko on urban decline, pointing out that durable housing acts as a kind of cushion 2/ repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewconten…
Even if the Covid shock were much worse than seems likely, dystopian fantasies about big cities weren't likely 3/
In fact, my guess is that by the fall NYC will be looking pretty attractive, with vibrant pedestrian streets, outdoor dining, and a cultural resurgence. Here's hoping 4/
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Kind of buried by the Covid bill, but in a few days we'll probably start hearing more about CBO's long-term budget projections, which will have fiscal scolds fulminating 1/ cbo.gov/publication/57…
The debt projections look big, for those worried about that kind of thing 2/
But it will be important to understand what's driving those projections. Some of it is entitlement spending, but mostly it's projected interest payments (I start from 2024, after the Covid bulge is over) 3/
As the Senate begins debate on the Biden relief bill, let me remind everyone of three crucial facts:
1. The bill is imperfect — because all legislation is imperfect
2. Nonetheless, it's very, very good
3. The clock is ticking 1/
On (1), sure, you can argue that some aid recipients don't need the money as badly as others. An idealized bill would target aid more accurately on families, local governments etc hurt worst by the pandemic. But so what? 2/
The great bulk of the proposed outlays will go to extremely worthy causes — shots in arms, reopened schools, sustaining the unemployed, avoiding cuts in crucial services, and more. Compared with real-world bills of the past, this one is amazingly good 3/
One thing that has always struck me is how liberals are accused of elitist disdain for ordinary Americans, yet conservatives get away with blatant contempt. Consider Dan Patrick, Lt. Gov of TX 1/
A while back I argued that economic pessimism might actually be boosting stocks, because low interest rates reflecting expected economic weakness made stocks more attractive 1/ nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opi…
It seems as if today we're seeing economic optimism driving interest rates up and stocks down 2/ cnbc.com/2021/02/25/the…
A note for anyone tempted to say NOW we need to worry about debt, 10-year real rates are still negative, and far below expected economic growth 3/ cnbc.com/quotes/US10YTIP
It was a bad theory on multiple grounds, which I'll write about more. But if even the least likable man in America says that we can't let prices spike, the whole thing becomes complete nonsense 3/
It's too bad that the Republicans who run Texas are now committed to the canard that renewable energy somehow caused the blackout; once you've gone with a Big Lie, there's no going back. Because they really should be reflecting on the failure of a theory 1/
The idea behind Texas energy policy was that a deregulated market didn't require any oversight to protect the system from crisis, because profit-maximizing utilities would build in robust excess capacity to take advantage of possible price spikes 2/
But they didn't, even though the price spike has been incredible 3/