It wont get the attention it deserves but Rishi Sunak's biggest giveaway over the next couple of years is the "Super Deduction"
It's costing a whopping £27 BILLION pounds
Yet despite the £27 billion price tag, the Office for Budget Responsibility has big questions.
Rather than boosting growth overall, "it provides companies with a very strong incentive to bring forward investment from future
periods"
The scale of spending - most of which takes place in 2021 and 2022 - may rise. And the benefits may be lower than predicted.
"We have applied a ‘very high’ uncertainty rating to the behavioural element and the overall costing", says the OBR
The companies which benefit, the OBR says, see "very large temporary
increases" on the allowances.
"Not only are the rates
generous, but they are not limited by value," says the OBR
The Super Deduction policy was championed by the Adam Smith Institute who welcomed it tonight
"We'd estimated at 100% full expensing would be worth over £2,214 per worker, going beyond that is a bold move to help the private sector build the recovery."
Here is the report by the Adam Smith Institute which recommended the Super Deduction policy. They called it the "factory tax"
Every adult in the UK could receive both doses of a coronavirus vaccine by August or September "or maybe sooner if we need to", the head of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce Clive Dix has told Sky News
He tells me there is huge confidence about supply levels
Transcript
Asked if vaccine supply would arrive at the rate promised over the next three to six months, he replied: "Yes, definitely"
Pressed if this meant confidence every adult would get two jabs: "We're probably talking August time or September time all done, maybe sooner if we need to"
This is faster than government ministers suggested
Dominic Raab told @SophyRidgeSky two weeks ago: "Our target is that by September to have offered all the adult population a first dose, if we can do it faster than that great but that's the roadmap."
Boris Johnson just said everyone shd be very proud of the vaccine rollout
- Says there are still some people in top 4 groups should come forward to GP or 119
- Won’t confirm that he wants primary and secondary school at once (despite briefing that’s the intention).
- Rates of infection still very high
- Wants progress that is cautious but irreversible
- “If you have a large volume of circulation there’s a higher risk of new variants and greater risk of spreading out.
- “No vaccination programme is 100%” 👀
- We will set out dates if possible next Monday in roadmap. The dates are earliest we can do things. If we need to push them off
- Vaccine Passports? inevitable there will be great interest in ideas about showing you have had vaccine. That’s going to be in the mix down the road
Boris Johnson TV pool iv 1
** Record deaths record figures "appalling" and "there will be more to come" because of the new variant just before Xmas.
** Tho rates of infection in country overall may be peaking or flattening they're not flattening very fast
Boris Johnson TV pool iv 2
** 4.2 million have received vaccine
** "As the vaccine goes in and that programme accelerates, there will be a really big difference by the spring."
** we have tough weeks to come now
Boris Johnson TV pool iv 3
** "Obviously it’s the job of all UK prime ministers that have a ... close working relationship with the president of united states and actually When you look at what unites me and Joe Biden .. there is a fantastic joint united agenda"
Perhaps the most important number in the spending review today is £27 billion
It’s the best guess by the OBR at how much taxes may have to rise or spending fall to close the permanent deficit
And the government just doesn’t want to talk about it.
But we do/
£27 billion/
Here it is on page 5 of the OBR
“Even on the loosest conventional definition of balancing the books, a fiscal adjustment of £27 billion would be required to match day to day spending to receipts by the end of the 5 year forecast”
£27 billion/
Why does this matter? That is what it’ll take to close the current deficit according to the OBR.
In 2010, the figure George Osborne announced was £40 billion: this gives you a sense of Parliament defining scale of the challenge ahead.
OBR on Brexit
We continue to assume that the UK and EU conclude a free-trade agreement (FTA) and that there is a smooth transition to the new trading relationship after the transition period ends on 31 December 2020
OBR on Brexit /2
However, there is evidence that neither the Government nor
businesses are fully prepared for the imminent changes even if a deal is agreed.
OBR on Brexit /3
But some short-term disruption, especially to exports, remains a downside risk – the Bank’s latest forecast assumes that such disruption will reduce GDP by around 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.
Also Lord O’Shaughnessy did act as a paid advisor to the NHS Test & Trace team on innovations. And Lord Feldman did work as an unpaid advisor to the Ex lobbyist Lord Bethell, to provide additional capacity to the Department in its work with industry to tackle coronavirus.
George Pascoe Watson and Lord Feldman were not involved in any procurement decisions which were made by officials, the government says on background