Thread by @SamCoatesSky

OBR on Brexit
We continue to assume that the UK and EU conclude a free-trade agreement (FTA) and that there is a smooth transition to the new trading relationship after the transition period ends on 31 December 2020

OBR on Brexit /2

However, there is evidence that neither the Government nor
businesses are fully prepared for the imminent changes even if a deal is agreed.

OBR on Brexit /3

But some short-term disruption, especially to exports, remains a downside risk – the Bank’s latest forecast assumes that such disruption will reduce GDP by around 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

OBR on Brexit /4

OBR factor no such short-term disruption into (forecasts) but maintain our assumption that an FTA will lower both export and import intensity over time, and that productivity will be 4% lower in the long run than if the UK had remained a member of the EU

OBR on Brexit /5

A ‘no deal’ Brexit could reduce real GDP by a further 2 per cent in 2021, due to various temporary disruptions to cross-border trade and the knock-on impacts

OBR on Brexit /6

How much worse will be it be if we don't have a UK-EU trade deal?

Average 2.1% worse impact on GDP