Perhaps the most important number in the spending review today is £27 billion
It’s the best guess by the OBR at how much taxes may have to rise or spending fall to close the permanent deficit
And the government just doesn’t want to talk about it.
But we do/
£27 billion/
Here it is on page 5 of the OBR
“Even on the loosest conventional definition of balancing the books, a fiscal adjustment of £27 billion would be required to match day to day spending to receipts by the end of the 5 year forecast”
£27 billion/
Why does this matter? That is what it’ll take to close the current deficit according to the OBR.
In 2010, the figure George Osborne announced was £40 billion: this gives you a sense of Parliament defining scale of the challenge ahead.
But the gvt says...
£27 billion/
... nothing
The gvt will not acknowledge the £27 billion or say if it’s even remotely right.
They says the OBR is an “independent forecaster” and now is “not the time to put figures on it given uncertainty”
🤨
Why?
£27 billion/
They don’t want to engage presumably because
- They don’t want a £27 billion tax bombshell headline
- They’ve spent a huge amount of money today so it’s mixed messages
- Theres no answer yet to “when to raise taxes” debate ... so just don’t start it
£27 billion/
There was lots of bad news in the OBR forecast published alongside the spending review. £394 bn debt this year. Unemployment peaks at 2.4 million.
But they’ve put off the debate about the consequences - the pain - to another day. Very Boris. Not very George.
£27 billion/
As part of Rishi’s complete rejection of Osbornomics, apart from aid cuts and public sector pay freeze, today was a spending bonanza
⬆️£14.8bn more for Whitehall departments
£27 billion/
So we don’t know from the Treasury
1️⃣ The scale of the deficit to be filled in
2️⃣ The timescale it must be done over
3️⃣ The mix of tax and spend
Because of “uncertainty”
Even tho the OBR was confident enough to put 1️⃣ and 2️⃣ in their Executive Summary:
£27 billion/
The problem for Tories is that they don’t have long to solve these questions.
This - 2020 - is the moment in a Parliament - furthest from a general election - where you have the political space to raise taxes. Delay it and the pain comes closer to the 2024 poll 🥶
£27 billion/
The founder of the Northern Research Group Jake Berry says wait til 2024
OBR on Brexit
We continue to assume that the UK and EU conclude a free-trade agreement (FTA) and that there is a smooth transition to the new trading relationship after the transition period ends on 31 December 2020
OBR on Brexit /2
However, there is evidence that neither the Government nor
businesses are fully prepared for the imminent changes even if a deal is agreed.
OBR on Brexit /3
But some short-term disruption, especially to exports, remains a downside risk – the Bank’s latest forecast assumes that such disruption will reduce GDP by around 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.
Also Lord O’Shaughnessy did act as a paid advisor to the NHS Test & Trace team on innovations. And Lord Feldman did work as an unpaid advisor to the Ex lobbyist Lord Bethell, to provide additional capacity to the Department in its work with industry to tackle coronavirus.
George Pascoe Watson and Lord Feldman were not involved in any procurement decisions which were made by officials, the government says on background
Westminster somersaulted overnight at the scoop by @elliottimes that Lee Cain, currently Director of Communications is “poised” to be made Boris Johnson’s chief of staff. Congratulations to Times political editor on throwing a pebble which has caused **quite** so many waves.
This thread is not about household names. But the issues matter - because it touches on two key things in government, its direction, and who exercises grip on the prime minister. How powerful is the Vote Leave faction? And the rest?
What’s going on? Lee Cain is a long standing senior aide to the prime minister. He worked with BJ on the 2016 Vote Leave campaign. Alongside him in the Foreign Office and - importantly - during the wilderness years after he resigned from Theresa May’s government. Boris trusts him
Interestingly emphatic message from a govt source that arrival of President Elect Biden does *not* make a difference to their approach to Brexit. We're in the final countdown on brexit - 5 to 10 days left - and big gaps remain.
1/
2/ This despite it being likely that Biden's arrival does change the context: next US administration will give more credence to Irish viewpoint on Good Friday Agreement. No reason to think Biden will alter September view that no EU-UK trade deal means no UK-US trade deal
3/ Are we tiptoeing closer to no trade deal? The UK government is thinking about argument to make over why the EU Commission hasn't treated us fairly. Gvt dug in on the Internal Market bill. Dominic Raab suggested the EU putting peace in NI at risk this morning.
YouGov voting intention puts Labour 5 points ahead of the Tories
L 40 (+2)
C 35 (-3)
LD 7 (+1)
BXP (+2)
** It'll cause a shiver down Tory spines but individual C and L changes IS within +/-3 margin of error (just)
BUT some notable changes:
BUT....
If you do a comparison with Oct 21/22
** Leave voters two weeks ago was C 60, L 13. In the current poll Leave voters C 56, L 20
** Two weeks ago 85% of GE2019 Tory voters would vote Tory again, now 78%. The L % unchanged at 87%
** BXP is bouncing around and so their two relaunches have had no measurable impact - over the last 4 weeks their poll number has been 5%, 3%, 4%, 6% so too early to say they're keyh. The amount they're eating into GE2019 Tory vote in latest poll (7%) similar to Oct 21/22 (5%)
NOW: EHRC report into Labour and antisemitism
- Culture which “at worst” “could be seen to accept” antisemitism
- Serious failings in leadership
- There WERE unlawful acts of harassment and discriminations
- some complaints not investigated
- evidence of “political interference” in handling AS complaints sometimes based on press interest not consistent criteria
- How the Labour Party broke the law twice:
By allowing “agents” to break equality law anti Semitic tropes and suggesting complaints were fake or smears. As these people are acting as agents, Labour is responsible