Thread by @DrTracyTaylor

1/ @APDillon_ @Chad_Adams @PeteKaliner @JohnLockeNC @jonpsanders NC SC-2 Trends through 2/2/21 including current data on graphs to show how things are trending in real time. Discussing thru 2/2 since NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (drives incidence down).

2/ Overall incidence has ⬆️ for the 12th wk to 8.55% (⬆️ 0.08%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incid fluctuated b/w 6.87% & 16.5% (reporting inconsistency) over last 14 days. Jan avg daily incid is 12.0% (⬆️ 1.1% compared to Dec, stat sig). Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.0%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.4%
July: 8.1% Nov: 7.4%
Aug: 6.9% Dec: 10.9%

4/ Avg wkly incid =10.5% (⬇️ 0.51%); last 3 wks =9.64%. After mask mandate, avg wkly incid fluctuated largely despite mask compliance ~90%. Avg wkly incid each month:
May: 6.9% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.4%
June: 7.4% Oct: 6.3% Feb: 8.6%
July: 8.1% Nov: 6.9%
Aug: 7.4% Dec: 10.6%

5/ 2/2 rolling 14-day incid avg is 10.42%. After mask mandate, rolling 14-day incid has fluctuated significantly despite reported mask compliance ~90%. Rolling 14-day avg each month:
May: 6.7% Sept: 5.9% Jan: 12.4%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.2%
July: 7.95% Nov: 8%
Aug: 7.3% Dec: 10.21%

6/ # active cases (70,067) ⬇️d 3rd consecutive wk. Will cont to see ⬇️ cases in Feb (consistent w/flu, PNA) due to seasonality. Avg # new cases/day:
May: 583 Sept: 1352 Jan: 7032
June: 1164 Oct: 2065
July: 1859 Nov: 2996
Aug: 1498 Dec: 5946

7/ # of tests ⬆️ 13.34% compared to Dec. NCDHHS back fills the data, and currently tests can be back filled from 1/30 to present.
May: 281,133 Oct: 1,037,783
June: 348,174 Nov: 1,242,860
July: 714,289 Dec: 1,673,424
Aug: 699,911 Jan: 1,896,598
Sept: 773,697

8/ % recovered =89.5%, % active cases is 9.2%, % deaths (CFR) is 1.37%. Mortality rate ⬆️ to 0.1% (expected). Avg # deaths/day ⬆️ in Jan:
Mar: 0.85 July: 21.1 Nov: 36.0
April: 14.4 Aug: 27.8 Dec: 61.97
May: 18 Sept: 26.5 Jan: 86.2
June: 15.2 Oct: 28.9 Feb: 34.8

9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 15 deaths reported out of 207,719 total cases (CFR = 0.00722%) since 6/15. Conversely, while 15% of NC COVID cases (119,178) are in 65-75+ cohort, 83% of all NC COVID deaths (9,142) are in this cohort; of these 43.23% are in congregate settings.

10/ Hospitalizations ⬇️ by 582 pts to 2723. NOTE: on 3/3/21, vent avail capacity =74%, ICU avail capacity =21.3% at worst & 45% at best, inpatient bed avail capacity =26% at worst & 38% at best. Duke region is most affected w/ICU beds, 11 empty staffed (⬆️ 2).

11/ % change in active cases, % change in tests, & incidence ⬇️ 3rd consecutive wk. That’s a very good sign! WCPSS reported 56 cases 1/27-2/2 (25 students/31 staff) while on remote only. Private/charter schools report 43 cases (32 students/11 staff). @Karen4wake

12/ Covid cases per cohort ⬇️‘d for all age groups. Main cohort drivers of Covid transmission are 25-49 yrs, 50-64 yrs, & 18-24 yrs. This wk, there are 4,780 active cases in 50-64 cohort & 9,068 in 25-49 cohort; 6,296 active cases COMBINED in 2-24 cohort. This is in ALL of NC.

13/13 Overall and average daily incidence ⬆️. Average weekly/rolling 14-day incidence, active cases, hospitalizations, daily cases, and deaths/day all ⬇️. Hospital capacity is no longer an issue.