Play it out: Republicans regain control of the WH and Congress. There's a bill they want to pass that has 50+ votes in the Senate but not 60. Does anyone really think that McConnell will let Dems filibuster it and just throw up his hands? Or will he nuke the filibuster himself?
Not an idle wager. Preserving the filibuster now in the hopes of using it later means giving up on issues like voting rights which are necessary to save our democracy. Is it worth sacrificing issues of that importance in the hopes that McConnell will let Dems keep the filibuster?
A few answers to this. First, wait and find out! Dems would quite literally be betting the fate of our democracy on the *hope* that McConnell decides to let Dems keep the filibuster. Giving up on voting rights while crossing your fingers that he keeps it is perhaps shortsighted.
Second, the fact that McConnell can get much of what he wants through reconciliation and the courts shows how the filibuster distributes power asymmetrically to conservatives. Mcconnell can get what he wants with the filibuster in place, but Democrats cannot. The line won't hold.
Third, not only can McConnell get tax cuts through reconciliation and rollbacks/deregulation through the courts, he can use the filibuster to manufacture gridlock, thereby furthering the conservative case that government is broken and incapable of solving the challenges we face.
It's not a parlor game. The costs of keeping the filibuster are enormous - as @RonBrownstein wrote, the fate of our democracy hinges on it. Giving up on voting rights in the *hopes* that McConnell will let us use the filibuster later seems like a bad bet. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

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More from @AJentleson

4 Mar
Folks whose response to filibuster reform is "but Manchin" must not remember 2013. When Obama took office, we were, conservatively, 20+ votes shy of reform. We got there in 2013. To be just a few votes shy this early, facing even more extreme obstruction, is a good place to be.
We are light years ahead of where I thought we'd be by now. I'll probably do a longer thread on this at some point, but on an issue like this, you look at how many layers of opposition you have to work through within the caucus - is it a 7-layer Ajax shield, or nah? On this...
... we've got elite consensus congealing, permission structure forming (with folks like David Brooks who Biden reads giving the green light) and senators like Coons and Tester who would have formed one of those layers of resistance already showing movement. Pretty darn good!
Read 5 tweets
19 Feb
This is an exciting agenda but using reconciliation again instead of taking it straight to the floor could be a big strategic mistake. Reconciliation lets Republicans off the hook, shifting attention from their obstruction to inter-party fights over what conforms to its rules...
By using reconciliation, you concede at the outset that Republicans will block the bill, cutting them out of the political narrative. The process takes weeks or months, during which time the narrative will be "Dems in disarray" as they argue over what should go in the package.
The antagonist becomes the Parliamentarian, not Republicans. Republicans get to sit on the sideline and take pot shots. Assembling a package of the size contemplated is a monumental task, which will be much harder without the centripetal unifying force of GOP obstruction.
Read 7 tweets
9 Feb
This is a microcosm. What makes Manchin’s position awkward and I think ultimately unsustainable is that in most instances he will be arguing to give people less help and do less good for our democracy than Biden and his fellow Dems - many of whom are up in 2022 - want to do.
It would be one thing if Manchin’s stand could leverage a bipartisan deal instead of a Dem-only version. But as we’re seeing on covid relief, getting 10 Rs is a fantasy. So it comes down to doing a Dem-only version or nothing at all. Biden and 2022 Dems can’t accept the latter.
I think this is key. I’m a Manchin defender because he has the highest WAR of any Senate Dem (Tester is arguably tied). While I can’t speak for him and would never presume to know his heart, from past experience I believe he does care about Biden’s success & keeping the majority.
Read 5 tweets
6 Feb
Quick PSA on reconciliation: the Senate Parliamentarian is likely to strike out many key provisions that will be found not to comply with reconciliation’s strict rules. This is largely out of Dems’ control and not at all the same as Dems intentionally slimming down the bill.
Reconciliation is governed by strict rules that determine what can and cannot be processed along its fast track. For policies that push the limits, Dems argue their case before the Senate Parliamentarian, like arguing before a judge. Ultimately it’s the Parliamentarian’s call.
A lot of the pieces that have been written about what can and cannot pass under reconciliation are heavy on theory. Theoretically, many things can pass but those theories may not survive contact with parliamentary reality. Worth a try, but don’t be surprised when they get struck.
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
Biden clearly should not do #1. The problem with #2 is that reconciliation delays the inevitable and creates a tiered system where issues that happen to be ineligible - like civil rights and democracy reform - are relegated to second-class status and left to die by filibuster.
This👇is the danger. By using reconciliation you’re conceding the point that major legislation deserves to pass by majority vote, but only certain kinds for arbitrary reasons. Plus the process itself is opaque and ugly. You risk laying a logistical & political trap for yourself.
All the “here’s what you can do through reconciliation” takes are correct but also look through the wrong end of the telescope. Any of the items mentioned, or a small number of them, would be relatively easy. But putting them all together in one leadership-driven mega package...
Read 16 tweets
21 Jan
The filibuster was not part of the original Senate because the Framers knew exactly how it'd be used- they saw McConnell coming. The filibuster represents Calhoun's vision, not Madison's. Calhoun wanted a Senate where the minority could block the majority. nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opi…
To those who say the filibuster encourages bipartisanship, Hamilton addressed this directly in Federalist 22: "What at first sight may seem a remedy, is, in reality, a poison," he wrote of a supermajority threshold. It doesn't encourage cooperation, it encourages obstruction.
The de facto supermajority threshold was first forged against civil rights. Jim Crow-era segregationist senators repurposed a 1917 Senate rule to force every civil rights bill to clear a supermajority threshold, blocking them all. Only civil rights bills were blocked in this way.
Read 7 tweets

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