Excerpt from Bloomberg article on recent exponential runup (to >70x earnings) recent 20% pull back in Moutai.

When will investors learn that there is zero skill involved in jumping onto a momentum bandwagon. Being up 100% last year is a sign of ineptitude, not skill.
Same with Cathy Wood, who will suffer a dramatic reversal of fortunes sooner or later, w fawning admiration replaces with scorn. Many people are impressed by her triple digit returns. I'm appalled and think they are a sign of recklessness, inexperience & lack of risk awareness.
It's actually worse than that though because investors like Cathey Wood actually play a large role in creating the bubble in the first place. They use captivating narratives to attract unsophisticated investors en mass & plow that cash into bubble stocks driving them sky high.
While some investors who get in early might fare ok, the vast bulk of the money comes in late and most investors are left with very sizeable losses. In Cathey's case, it will be a lot of unsophisticated retail investors that suffer wipe-out losses. It's irresponsible behaviour.
Late stage bubble markets have an unfortunate "survival of the unfittest" aspect to them. The least competent, experienced, and knowledgeable investors end up with the best returns & large slugs of FUM. There doesn't seem to be any cure. It's a structural feature of markets.

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More from @LT3000Lyall

5 Mar
A lot of people are arguing the sell-off in tech/high flying growth names is due to the longer duration of their cash flows, & hence greater sensitivity to higher discount rates. That's not the real reason. It is instead due to their sensitivity to liquidity conditions (thread).
A huge amount of money creation has occurred of late via central bank printing, and it's flooded into certain sectors of financial markets. Desperation for any sort of return in a zero rate environment has also pushed risk averse capital into riskier assets - alts & stocks.
Wary of the impact of covid on the economy, that money has flooded into perceived lower risk stock exposure - "covid winners"/secular growth stories perceived to be immune. Performance chasing, and the high weighting of frothy growth stocks in ETFs has also contributed.
Read 18 tweets
4 Mar
Litigation funder OBL AU suffered adverse rulings on a few cases. They highlight the impairments they needed to take in period are "non cash". But the capitalized intangible balances being impaired reflect past lawyers salaries that were paid in cash but capitalized.
Companies do this all the time. They incur real cash expenses in one period, and then take "non cash" impairments in future periods, and point you to "adjusted earnings". If you don't watch out for this, you will be seriously mislead about how profitable these coys really are.
Granted, impairments can be lumpy. But if they are going to "adjust" earnings this period, they should also go back and adjust their "adjusted earnings" from past periods as well to reflect the prior overcapitalization of expenses that occurred, & hence over-reporting of earnings
Read 5 tweets
4 Mar
Might be timely to reiterate my idea of "faux contrarianism" - buying popular & expensive stocks that are 20% off their highs, thinking you're being contrarian. *The consensus view is always that such sell-offs are a buying opportunity*, which reflects a prevailing bullish bias.
Genuine contrarianism, by contrast, is buying things that have underperformed for a long time and are genuinely cheap, and most people regard as value traps.
Example: Bloomberg ran an article yesterday calling the pullback in PTON a buying opportunity. Faux. If you're being genuinely contrarian, the media is not calling a buying opportunity. They run articles about why the outlook is so terrible, and tell you to sell the rallies.
Read 5 tweets
4 Mar
This type of BNPL bandwagon-jumping could lead to an explosion in off-balance sheet debt, that could prove destabilizing.

It might be time for regulators to step in to limit the scope/size of what can be financed with BNPL.

BNPL is debt/lending. Let's cut the bullshit.
There is nothing new or innovative about instalment financing ("BNPL") or POS financing, per se. What is innovative from APT et al is POS financing/origination via their mobile platform tech, plus pushing the direct (though not indirect) cost/burden of financing onto merchants.
"BNPL" is not a new financial product. It's a marketing slogan/rebranding of an old product - POS consumer financing. It's the technology-enabled origination method that's new. Unless there is logic 4 why loans are most efficiently originated this way, "BNPL" is just buzzword BS.
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
If what we are witnessing is the beginning of a "real deal" inflation & rate cycle (far from assured & way too early to call), DM markets will see carnage on par/worse than what happened in the 1970s and global markets (DM) will probably fall 50%.
Central banks are complacent. Inflation is stirring, and yet Powell is promising low rates for a long time & more stimulus, as are other governors, while govts ready more fiscal stimulus even as economy recovers. If inflation starts printing 4-5% markets are in serious trouble.
IF vaccines work to end covid (a very big if given ongoing mutations), the recovery will be very rapid not gradual. Travel demand for eg will not slowly recover - it will go vertical to record levels almost immediately as years of pent up demand/deferred travel is unleashed.
Read 8 tweets
26 Feb
Wtf kind of option deal is this (part of PBH AU's advertising deal with NBC)! NBC has been granted 66.88m options at A$13.00, but also has the option to cancel the option deal for cash consideration of A$105m reflecting "fair value of the options" at the time they were granted!
NBC has managed to negotiate an option on their own options. Definitely got the upper hand in these negotiations & perhaps demonstrates where the real market power/value lies in this relationship.
Context on deal. PBH committed to spend US$400m on marketing with NBC including granting significant equity & options to NBC, as well as the aforementioned "option on their options".
Read 4 tweets

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