Thread by @mdouganlpool

What should we make of the latest developments over NI and the Protocol, i.e. UK’s (second, clear) breach of international legal obligations + escalation of DUP-led agitation through direct loyalist threats to GFA? A few thoughts...

1) Most generous explanation for HMG’s actions? Tories are now more worried about potential for DUP & paramilitary allies to plunge NI into serious disorder, than about immediate legal and diplomatic consequences of UK’s international lawbreaking

2) But more likely explanation (since it fits into clear & established pattern)? Johnson only ever signed Protocol to “get Brexit done” with no real grasp of its implications / sincere intention of implementing it in good faith, so HMG simply places little value on own compliance

3) Combined with (in general) the ideologue’s belief in untrammelled state sovereignty, where rules are optional and obligations exist only for others; and (in particular) the Europhobe’s contempt for the EU, its very existence being a source for spite and antagonism

4) But UK conduct is unsustainable. We know: Protocol is result of choices made by Johnson & approved by Parliament; there is no credible alternative; it requires trust & cooperation to work; such trust requires honesty, not least about price NI must pay for Johnson’s Hard Brexit

5) Yet Johnson continues to cover tracks & mislead public: “The position of Northern Ireland within the UK internal market is rock solid and guaranteed”. It isn’t. The UK state decided (& it was a choice) that one cost of Hard Brexit = NI’s legal and economic segregation from GB

6) So long as Johnson refuses to be open and honest, certain NI unionists might believe there’s still a “better solution” - if only they can pile on enough pressure. There isn’t. NI unionists need to understand and accept a brute fact, however unpleasant it may be:

7) That English nationalists pursued Brexit regardless of cost to UK itself. With DUP's active assistance. No point complaining about threats to British identity, because the very meaning of “British identity” has been radically redefined by Tory Government and Parliament.

8) Would be right, eg for EU+US to pile serious pressure on Johnson Regime / make clear & tangible price to be paid by international delinquents. But ultimately NI’s stability depends on NI unionists accepting: Brexit changed everything. Which needs Tories to stop lying about it.