Ok this is a good one.
Coming up on @realmoney
The Day the Liquidity Died
* We appear to be in a new regime of heightened volatility
* And in a market without memory from day to day
* Market focus, as we have predicted, has pivoted violently from growth to value
* I expect
this pivot to continue (and I own banks in size)
* And, with it, a loss of liquidity, as redemptions rise and many try to escape from the previously popular high tech darlings
“Music gives a soul to the universe, wings to the mind, flight to the imagination, and life to
everything.”
– Plato
"A long, long time ago
I can still remember
How liquidity and an orderly market used to make me smile.
And I now know what investors do at any chance
Is to get themselves a margin loan in advance
And maybe add some more Rocket Companies to the pile
But systemic strategies made me shiver
With every basis point the bond market delivered
A short volatility bubble and risk parity on the doorstep
Still the traders couldn't keep from taking one more step..."
@jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @carlquintanilla @amdrewrsorkin

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More from @DougKass

4 Mar
@realmoney

On a subjective basis, the level of speculative activity in the markets continues to boil and so does the hubris.

The individual stocks/vehicles change in every cycle - and so do the players. Gerry Tsai (Manhattan Funds), Tom Marsico (Janus Funds), Kevin Landis
(First Hand Funds) and three Freds (Mates, Carr and Alger) have all been replaced by Ark Invest's (ARKK) Cathie Wood, and her investments in disruptive technology, in the current speculative investing cycle.

Speculation is a condition that rears its head in every single Bull
Market I have seen since I started to invest when I was 15 years old.

Speculation dilates eyes so wide that risk is forgotten and pushed to the side by newly minted geniuses who, after losing most of their money, ultimately swear off stocks when the ship of fools leaves the
Read 15 tweets
4 Mar
@realmoney

I find those that are opposed to my $ARKK are blind to my analysis that a virtuous cycle of inflows could easily morph into a vicious cycle of outflows. They are looking backwards in the rear view mirror of past performance (which is not necessarily a prelude to
future performance and they are mired in Cathie Wood's celebrity - which is not based on the past delivery of exceptional or consistent long term stock returns. They view the opportunities of disruptive technology as exciting and open ended without an appreciation of how
expensive and illiquid the constituent stocks are (particularly relative to ARK's large percentage ownership). Oddly those that are the most vocal in opposition of my $ARKK short are technically oriented - and I have not yet heard a technician seriously analyze the stock chart
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
I find those that are opposed to my $ARKK are blind to my analysis that a virtuous cycle of inflows could easily morph into a vicious cycle of outflows. They are looking backwards in the rear view mirror of past performance (which is not necessarily a prelude to future
performance and they are mired in Cathie Wood's celebrity - which is not based on long term or exceptional stock returns. They view the opportunities of disruptive technology as exciting and open ended without an appreciation of how expensive and illiquid the
constituent stocks are (particularly relative to ARK's large % ownership). Oddly those that are most vocal in opposition of my $ARKK short are technically oriented - and I have not yet heard a technician seriously analyze the stock charts of $ARKK
Read 6 tweets
2 Mar
@realmoney

Mar 02, 2021 | 04:56 PM EST DOUG KASS
Let's Bring Rocket Companies Back Down to Earth
"Just one more thing."
- Lt. Columbo

I tried to get a short locate on Rocket Companies (RKT) late in the day -- but there was no stock to borrow.

The share price advance today
(+70%) was beyond absurd.

And the comments made by talking heads in the media were even more absurd.

I even heard one talking head comment that the share price climb makes sense as rising interest rates will buoy RKT's profitability. In actuality, the opposite is true.
Rocket Companies' share price advance is ridiculous but what is even more stupid is the absence of any bona fide discussion in the financial media that supports my claim and rejects the logic of the ramp.

It is like even the most sober observers are in a speculative trance --
Read 5 tweets
27 Feb
Its amusing to listen to the dogmatic, laissez faire, free mkt observers who seem to feel the present market backdrop of manipulation and gambling is ideally suited for everyone to trade profitably. They fully know the neophytes are totally screwed and will be large net
losers over time. The smug and undocumented BS that they sell, from unusual call activity and 'T.A.' of unpredictable stocks like $GME and $KOSS to "cornering" illiquid disruptive innovation companies (Ark Invest) - under the guise of market science and fundamentals - that's
laughable and a quick road to the poorhouse. In reality, they really only care about themselves and the $s they take in by selling that service. They reject reasonable regulations and enforcement of those regulations (with a couple word phrase in defense of keeping the govt
Read 6 tweets
26 Feb
On @realmoney
Feb 26, 2021 06:42 AM EST DOUG KASS
Reward vs. Risk in My Bond Short Has Shifted
* I covered my $TLT short in Thursday's bond market schmeissing

* Look for bank stocks to now pause after the remarkable rally in the space

Nearly every trade and investment I make
is based on an assessment of reward vs. risk.

The upside opportunity is always weighed against the downside prospect.

This is the core of how I manage money and, especially as it relates to my investments, it is based on the fundamental analysis of a company and/or the
calculus of intrinsic value.

It provides me with a sense of "margin of safety" -- essential, in my mind, in finding comfort in trades and investments.

So it was Thursday that I covered my longstanding and high-conviction bond short.

The magnitude of the decline and speed
Read 7 tweets

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