So the European Parliament has today decided to *not* set the date when it will approve the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)
What does this mean?
Provisional Application of TCA runs until end of April
Before then there are 2 EP plenaries
24-25 March
26-29 April
Effectively means the later one will be when approval (or not) happens
The Provisional Application deadline could, in theory, be extended further. But that needs the approval of the UK in the Partnership Council...
I suppose it's now not impossible it'd be extended further so as to avoid a major bust up in April?
I still can't see the European Parliament not agreeing the TCA. So the question is whether they are reassured enough to do that in April, or annoyed enough to push the deadline further into the future
And UK side, if a request to extend were to come, what would the UK say?
The next few weeks are hence crucial - if the UK Government were behaving sensibly it would try to calm all of this down, and reassure the European Parliament about its intentions
But UK Government behaving sensibly...? We can but hope!
The focus in the EP now ought to be in wide ranging and systematic scrutiny - is there a way to make the intersection of TCA and NI Protocol work for both the EU and the UK? Is there a way to decrease tensions in Northern Ireland in particular?
Played well this could be an excellent opportunity for the European Parliament to show it takes people's real life concerns seriously, and does proper scrutiny
Do this badly and tensions increase and we're in a worse spot end of April than we are now...
The next 6 weeks will be interesting!
/ends
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
After all the wrangling in December about the European Parliament and Provisional Application of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement... everything has gone weirdly quiet.
Where *is* the vigorous scrutiny of the TCA that was promised?
Rapporteurs @KatiPiri@CHansenEU when is scrutiny in Committees? When is the Plenary vote? Late March mini plenary, or end of April?
The European Parliament is the *only* body well placed to scrutinise the TCA (and the interplay between it and the NI Protocol) right now - so the absence of any meaningful public communication about all of this?
I'm worried. It strikes me that if ERG, Foster, Gove and Frost stick to their current approach (demanding NI Protocol abolished or Art 16 triggered) *and* the work to do the required checks in NI from 1 April doesn't happen... it's a matter of time before UK Govt triggers Art 16
It won't happen before end of April, because triggering it before the European Parliament has even ratified the TCA is too dangerous (even for the political geniuses in 70 Whitehall), but once that's done... what's going to stop them?
Labour wants Brexit problems to go away. It's not going to mount a defence of the NI Protocol nor demand the work on the ground gets done
So discontent will grow, accusations of bad faith will be flung at the EU - with no-one UK side to balance them
It's the sheer brazenness of the Gove (backed by Foster) approach to "grace periods", & asking for them to continue until 2023...
As if it's self evident that UK is not going to be ready anytime soon... to do what it agreed to do when it signed TCA just 2 months ago!
Really, what has *changed*?
Unionists *that the 2020 WA and NI Protocol sold down the river* are annoyed? Consider me shocked.
That the EU actually thinks what's in a Treaty ought to be complied with? Can't be having that!
Or that vdL's faux pas on Article 16 and vaccines means the EU now has to change its approach to the texts it has agreed with the EU? Come on, that's not serious
Conclusion from the complete absence of reaction to this - on Twitter and directly on my blog - is that serious pieces like this on UK-EU relations, if not written by a think tank, now just sink without trace
Maybe I should pitch things like this to an organisation like @UKandEU - but then editorial processes and timetables come into play, but I guess I need to stomach that
And I am pretty sure I am not the right sort of person to work for a think tank, and founding my own makes no sense (we don't need more EU think tanks anyway)