A) It is no surprise that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) held out for hours tonight to get an agreement on extra unemployment benefits.
After all, the moderate Democrat is arguably the most powerful figure in Washington.
After all, the moderate Democrat is arguably the most powerful figure in Washington.
B) Democrats need Manchin's vote to pass any major piece of legislation in a 50/50 Senate. If Manchin walks, that’s it for Senate Democrats. If Manchin walks, that’s it for President Biden.
C) Plus, it works to Manchin’s advantage to go to the mat, gum up the works and hold out – especially so he can show his constituents he prevailed at the end. That’s not to say that the lengthy holdout was just political theatre. But it doesn’t hurt Manchin in these circumstances
D) Manchin has deployed this tactic before. He held up a big bill late at night a few years ago about a provision important to miners.
Keep in mind, Senate Democrats still have to keep together to pass this bill – and other bills.
Keep in mind, Senate Democrats still have to keep together to pass this bill – and other bills.
E) But remember that the House and Senate Democratic caucuses tilt to the left. At what point do liberal Democrats start to grouse about Manchin, a moderate, gets everything he wants when they outnumber him and they start to push for more energetic policy initiatives?
F) Also, it is now unclear if the Senate will finish the COVID bill tonight or not. They will finish it this weekend. But no one knows what the timetable is.
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