Thread by @ChadPergram

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To the Senate Finishing the COVID Bill

The short answer is that we don’t think there is much of a chance that the Senate takes a final vote on the coronavirus aid package overnight…or even early tomorrow morning after day breaks.

2) Fox is told that Republican senators are insistent on having votes on a multitude of amendments. That likely means this process to finish the COVID bill bleeds well into the day on Saturday if not beyond.

3) After setting a record for the longest roll call vote in Senate history (spanning nearly 12 hours) Friday, the Senate finally returned to the vote-a-rama after 11 pm. The vote-a-rama is where senators cast votes around the clock on amendment after amendment.

4) As you know, the House never even began debate on its coronavirus bill until nearly 11:30 last Friday night. So, there’s something about 11 pm on a Friday night which seems to prompt action here in Congress.

5) It is impossible to gauge the entire universe of amendments the Senate will consider in the coming hours or days - or how much time it will consume. Senators on both sides seem dug in. And that’s why we believe this may be a late Saturday project to finish the bill.

6) Regardless, the once the Senate exhausts all amendments, it will conclude its action on the bill with a vote on the “substitute” amendment. That’s the final amendment to the bill, swapping out one set of bill text for the other. Then…the Senate would vote on final passage.

7) Democrats have a numbers advantage here – due to tragic circumstances on the GOP side of the aisle.

The Senate is essentially 50-40 right now. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) left for Alaska after his father-in-law died.

8) The math always matters. This likely means Democrats don’t need to court a Republican to vote yes. And, Democrats probably don’t need Vice President Harris to come to Capitol Hill to cast a tie-breaking vote.

Once the Senate passes the bill, the measure goes back to the House

9) Democrats had hoped to keep changes to the bill to a minimum in the Senate. But that is not the case. The Senate had to strip out an increase in the minimum wage due to its own budget rules.

10) And, the power play by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) to reduce extra unemployment benefits from $400 to $300 a week is already infuriating House liberals. That could well present major headaches among moderate and liberal factions of House Democrats.

11) Liberals will complain why a moderate like Manchin got everything he wanted – when progressives may have to hold their noses to vote for the bill.

12) House Democrats can only lose four votes on their side and still pass the bill without assistance from Republicans. Holding the line at four could be challenge for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and President Biden after the alterations made to the bill in the Senate.