Here is a a look at the NASDAQ's earnings trend. Interestingly, earnings have been falling since 2018 and are actually (1) down about 25% from their 2018 peak; and (2) currently slightly below 2016 levels. 
This is actually not atypical late in a boom/bubble. The flood of capital into an industry usually drives down returns. Often that's ignored because people are focusing on the growth narrative/top line instead of earnings & returns on capital. Eventually earnings matter though.
It goes without saying that the consensus earnings estimates shown in light shade are likely to prove fairly delusional. I think we are most likely to see a continuing downward trend in earnings from here until we have a 2000-style bust & resultant industry capital rationing.
If earnings stabilize out at about 150 and the P/E falls to 20x the NASDAQ will fall about 75%. I suspect earnings will probably fare quite a bit worse than that in a legit downturn though. Earnings have already fallen 25% even with extremely favourable top-line conditions.
People will argue "but you need to exclude stock comp". The unfortunate reality is that the amount of stock dilution actually significantly increases as share prices fall. You have to issue twice as many shares if the price is 50% lower to give people the same comp package.
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