1/ Read the image attached here. It's about how Costco was consistently criticized by Wall Street analysts 15 years ago because they took "too much care" of the employees.

h/t @IntrinsicInv
2/ So what happened in the last 15 years? Costco was one of the few retailers in America that wasn't beaten to death in the age of Amazon.

It was almost 15x in the last 15 years.
3/ While capitalism does create tension among different stakeholders (shareholders, customers, employees, regulators etc), in many cases what is good for broader stakeholders is usually good for shareholders too.
4/ There is an interesting story that I read about Bezos meeting Jim Sinegal, the founder of Costco, in 2001.

They met at a Starbucks as Bezos wanted to explore whether Costco could become wholesale suppliers for Amazon for the products Amazon wasn’t selling yet.
5/ But once they met, this encounter became a philosophy class when Sinegal explained his retail philosophy to Bezos.

Most of you probably read Costco thread 10 times on fintwit, so will keep it short.

Costco buys from suppliers in bulk and mark up just 14% across the board.
6/ $COST could potentially charge a lot more, but this not only keeps things simple for COST but every time customers visit the store, they can see things are really cheap.

Going to COST is not unlike any retailer, for many it's probably a pilgrimage to quench shopping crave
7/ And Costco primarily makes money from the annual membership fees which is just one-time pain for the customer, but the pain is relieved each time they visit the store.
8/ Remember this was just after the tech bubble, and Amazon just barely survived. $AMZN was, in fact, lucky to survive as they raised debt just before the bubble popped.

That raise helped them navigate the difficult periods following the tech bubble.
9/ Bezos was thinking about raising prices to make things more sustainable going forward.

After meeting Sinegal, Bezos realized he got it wrong.

He ended up decreasing prices in many categories by 20-30% and cemented his philosophy by the following sentence:
10/ "There are two kinds of retailers: there are folks who work to figure how to charge more, and there are companies that work to figure how to charge less, and we are going to be the second, full-stop."
End/ Never ever underestimate the value of meeting really smart people. If the smart people also turn out to be successful, find an excuse to meet them and ask them what they think made them successful.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

28 Feb
1/ Six months ago, I launched MBI Deep Dives. I publish one deep dive of a publicly listed company every month for $10/month or $100/yr.

Subscribers receive only one/two email each month, and each deep dive is ~8-10k worded piece.

Here's how it went. A thread.
2/ After 6 months, I have 589 paid subs. Although I started in September last year, I started monetizing from November 15, 2020.

I am glad with how things have gone so far, but of course, what happens after 60 months is much more important than 6 months. ImageImage
3/ I will be the first to admit that MBI Deep Dives has been greatly benefited by the bull market.

I have no clue what will happen to stock price in 3-6 months, but price action probably played a role in convincing at least some to subscribe to my work. Image
Read 10 tweets
26 Feb
1/ Thread: $ETSY 4Q'20 Earnings Update

By now, it's widely recognized how good Etsy is, so the debate is centered around valuation. I'll comment on that, but first here are my notes.

Disclosure: $ETSY is a major core holding of mine (~20% weight).
2/ GMS in 2020: $10.3 Bn growing +106%
Revenue $1.7 Bn growing +111%

"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"

Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
3/ Etsy is not just an US story now; the pace of international growth and domestic GMS in those markets highlight not only cross-border network effects in play, but also Etsy itself has become a potent international brand.
Read 15 tweets
25 Feb
1/ Thread: $ANSS 4Q'20 Earnings Update

Ansys just had a fantastic Q4, but provided a relatively soft 2021 guidance. Stock's down 9%.

Another reminder that past has little relevance, and it's the future that drives any stock.

Here are my notes.
2/ Revenue growth in Q4 was +28%. That's very impressive, especially because it was relatively tough comp. 4Q'19 revenue itself was +18% YoY.

Operating margin in Q4 improved by ~350 bps.
3/ Thanks to Q4 momentum, ACV ended up +11% this year. 83% of ACV was recurring vs 78% last year.

"Looking long term, we believe that the pandemic may actually cause our total addressable market to go faster than our pre-pandemic projections"
Read 7 tweets
23 Feb
1/8 Thread: $CPRT FY 2Q'21 Earnings Call Notes

I wrote a deep dive on Copart this month. I love the company and management (you'll see why in these notes), but less of a fan of the industry and valuation.

Here are my notes.
2/8 For the second consecutive quarter, volume is down 13%, but offset by ASPs which is up by +35%, significantly outpacing overall industry.

Dealer business +10% when overall industry was down
3/8 Revenue +7.3%
Gross margin +49.8%, up 160 bps
Operating margin improved by ~500 bps
Capex for the quarter $136.1 Mn, 85% of which is growth capex
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
1/ Thread: $UBER 4Q'20 Update

"If a stock doubles on you and you thought it was expensive 50% lower, nine times out of ten its time to learn something."- @JerryCap

I passed on $UBER at $34/share, and it's been +85% since then.

Here are my notes from Q4 earnings call.
2/ Total gross bookings -4% YoY, but +16% QoQ.
Revenue -15% YoY, but +13% QoQ

Take rates down 221 bps YoY, primarily because mix shift to delivery which is lower take rates business

Strong conviction of reaching adj EBITDA profitability sometime in 2021.
3/ Mobility

Mobility appears to be improving in January; Brazil is at ~90% of last year's bookings.

Airport travel is the real laggard here, currently indexed at 27% of last year's bookings.

Expects WFH to continue, but travel to come back strongly this.
Read 12 tweets
10 Feb
1/4 I am 30 today.

As I reflect today, I realize I will probably never be as confident about the world as I was in my early 20s. The hubris of early 20s, thankfully, faded away.
2/4 Individually, we all are suffering from n=1 problem, n being the number of lives we can have. The best solution to this problem is vicarious learning.

Liddell Hart said, “There is no excuse for anyone who is not illiterate if he is less than three thousand years old in mind”
3/4 Or consider what Niall Ferguson said, “The dead outnumber the living fourteen to one, and we ignore the accumulated experience of such a huge majority of mankind at our peril.”

Hopefully, by the time my 30s ends, I will gain at least a few hundred years of wisdom vicariously
Read 4 tweets

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