Thread by @EconomicManBlog

This is the article that I have been thinking about writing. Fortunately, John Engle (@AlmingtonCap) spared me the trouble. Effective competition from legacy is finally here and Tesla is losing out in every major market.

seekingalpha.com/article/441193…

To all the Teslemmings who are thinking that #TSLAQ has been "crying wolf" about competition forever, remember: in the end of the story, the wolf actually did show up.

The game changer is that large-scale legacy manufacturers (ie., Ford, VW and Hyundai, not Jaguar) are finally producing cars based on dedicated EV platforms and not just dropping EV drivetrains into existing ICE platforms. This allows them to maximize the benefits of EVs

(slippery aerodynamics, larger interior spaces/frunks, low center of gravity, etc) to help offset EVs inherent disadvantages in range/charging and weight, creating a more attractive "trade off" for traditional ICE buyers.

The other step-change for legacy is that they have finally realized that just because it's an EV, doesn't mean it has to look like it was designed by a bored 12-year-old on the back of a class book. The Mach-E and Ioniq 5 are gorgeous, for example.

The Teslemmings have never understood the lags inherent in new car introduction. They have also been blinded by the crazy $TSLA stock price to the fact that EVs were an unprofitable and niche market that legacy were happy to ignore until regulations (and stock market pressure

) forced the to act. The Teslemmings took this lag as "proof" of sustainable advantage by $TSLA, when in fact it was just a combination of a normal lag (remember: the first Blackberry phone preceded the first iPhone by 5 years, and cars are more complicated than phones) and

legacy indifference to a small and unprofitable market.

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