It’s been a super tough week for me and I’m sure a super tough week for some of you as well. Here is how I’m doing after Friday and what I’ve learned...
1. The first thing I tried to do yesterday was take a step back and try to see the bigger picture:
i) I looked at March-2020 as a guide and saw that by the end of March-2020, the markets were down 20% but still found a way to fight back. What’s the same? Different?
ii) I looked at my relative performance vs the S&P500 - 3.6% vs 2.3% = 56% above the benchmark. I’m no huge fan of being up 3.6% but right now I need to find confidence in this.
iii) I looked at my portfolio and remodeled everything I’m invested in. I’m still proud of it all.
2) I re-questioned my goals and concluded my strategic view is still right: that inequality and climate change investments are a once in a lifetime opportunity to make hundreds of billions of dollars AND do the right thing.
3) I freed up some capital by selling some shares in $SPCE so I can keep investing at scale without impacting my pace and strategic view. I hated to do it but my balance sheet shrank by almost $2B this week. 🥺
NB: I have not sold any shares of any other SPAC I’ve launched.
Anyways, the point is that this stuff is hard and I, like you, am not perfect and trying to learn, be resilient and keep fighting.
Markets, in the near term, are volatile and unforgiving but they ultimately always direct gains to valuable companies doing valuable things.
Find a way to make sure you are comfortable with what you own and if not, don’t be afraid to make changes. Prices are temporary but your peace of mind should not be.
If all else fails, remember the Persian adage: “This too shall pass.”
Good luck to everyone. ❤️❤️
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A children's book explanation of what's happening:
1. If you are "smart money" you are allowed to take your $1 and leverage it up to $15+
2. You can now buy $15 of stock AND if you promise to short companies, you can short $15 of stock as well
3. In finance language, this means that you are $30 "gross" ($15 of longs + $15 of shorts) but $0 net (+$15 of longs -$15 of shorts). This makes everyone feel good because it feels like you are taking zero risk...but in reality, your $1 is exposed to $30 of risk.
4. Now you go around and tell your friends about both your longs and your shorts and when you do it at a restaurant vs on Reddit, its called an "ideas dinner".
5. You also publish your longs on a quarterly lag via an SEC rule. You don't have to tell anyone about your shorts.
Over the last year a few things have become clear: the world is more uncertain than ever, and the situation for small businesses is more perilous than ever.
Technology and capital can play a role in solving this problem.
It may sound boring to some but Insurance is a key enabler of economic growth and backstops trillions of dollars of economic activity.
As many business owners found out, significant gaps exist in coverage for the business interruptions that are becoming more and more frequent.
@davidsoloff and I are building @ottrisk to combine machine learning with traditional risk underwriting to make a meaningful start in filling the business interruption coverage gaps which are upending economic lives.
Here's the story of how I came to own a piece of the @warriors.
In 2011, I was 34 and had left $FB to start @socialcapital. When I was raising my first fund, I spoke to @peterthiel about investing. He asked me how much I planned to invest as the founder and only keyman.
- 1,000 total proposals submitted
- 156 were rated "Excellent" and were surveyed
- 29% were collaborative efforts
- 86% male / 14% female
- 38% non US (45% non US citizens)
- 24 countries represented
- 51% work in the private sector
Passion about climate change and recognition that this is one of the biggest challenges of our time was the driver for almost all applicants.
More than half of applicants were also interested in working with us on setting up this NewCo.