Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

This is a direct attack, by @GermanAmbUK - an exceptional professional who used to head Germany’s Foreign Office - on @DavidGHFrost👇

What does it tell us?

Nothing good. For the UK.

A🧵.

For anyone willing to set aside a bit of time & sit down with a strong cup of tea./1.

I first entered government service under Margaret Thatcher & Geoffrey Howe. In over 30 years I can’t remember a German official doing such a thing. In public. /2.

In private, vigorous conversations would sometimes happen, of course. But that a German Ambassador in London would go on the record in this way is either completely unprecedented, or at least absolutely extraordinary. /3.

Even in 1990 when the then Trade & Industry Secretary, Nicholas Ridley, compared Chancellor Kohl to Adolf Hitler - recalled here in 2011, by Dominic Lawson in an article (idiotically) entitled “Ridley Was Right” 👇/4.

You see what our German friends have had to put up with. (I was hauled into Chancellor Kohl’s office to receive a protest at the time. So I happen to know a bit about it).

People like Ambassador Michaelis don’t go off script. /5.

For all Ridley’s, Thatcher’s & others’ pathological inability to comprehend Germany & Germans, for all the destructive vapidity of much UK journalism, Germany, the UK & USA have been each other’s most important allies, in the Euro-Atlantic region, for 75 years./6.

(This isn’t to downplay France. But its role, at least performatively, has been more equivocal).

That region, in turn, not least (but not only) because of its huge economic power, has been strategically key, for the countries in it & for US global preeminence. /7.

On which every aspect of our security & well-being has relied, during that entire period. Along with that of others throughout Europe & around the world. It still does. /8.

Germany, the 4th largest economy in the world, literally just down the road from London, is highly influential &, alongside the USA, easily the UK’s closest major ally anywhere.

Or has been, until now. /9.

.@GermanAmbUK’s tweet could be seen as a mere repeat of the German official reaction at the time of the Ridley controversy. Which was (direct quote): “We consider our bilateral relations with Britain to be very good”. Full stop. /10.

But, of course, it isn’t just more of the same.

In 1990, in the face of massive European upheaval, the UK - for all the angst, aggressiveness, & inferiority complex combined with sentimentality for an imagined past, on display from Mrs Thatcher & much of her Cabinet - ... /11.

... was a committed, leading force in Europe including, crucially, in the most powerful political decision-making bodies of the European Community. /12.

The UK was leading the charge, as closely allied to Germany as it’s possible to imagine two countries being, in the unprecedented integration of the economies of the wealthiest continental scale region in the world, outside the USA. /13.

The creation of the Single Market. By orders of magnitude Mrs Thatcher’s greatest contribution in her entire half century as a parliamentarian. /14.

Now, German leaders are increasingly & urgently having to face the possibility that the UK is actively seeking to diminish, disable & if possible destroy the EU.

The UK’s capacity to do so is limited.

But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t cause serious damage. /15.

This has always been the glaring, insurmountable asymmetry at the heart of the fundamentally flawed Brexit fantasy. /16.

The UK is far too big & potentially disruptive to be offered a free ride, or any kind of leniency, outside the EU. But far too small independently to be able to assert its interests in the world. Particularly against the three giants: USA, EU & China. /17.

So, when Andreas Michaelis of 23 Belgrave Square, London SW1 says, of friendly relations with the UK: “Should there be any real doubts? We already enjoy a very friendly relationship ... Should be obvious”, the “should” is worth, if not 1,000, then at least 100 or more words./18.

Something along the lines of the following:

Dear Lord Frost,

As Charlie Brown found, flying kites is a very tricky business. You’re doing just that for your boss, on the one hand, & with the Conservative Party in pursuit of your own leadership ambitions, on the other. /19.

That’s an extremely precarious place for you, personally, to be politically. But, though of great professional interest, as a German representative it isn’t directly my business. /20.

Your position as one of the most prominent & powerful UK Cabinet Ministers, affecting vital national interests of my country & its EU partners, is. It’s my job to get under the skin of the, frankly, delusional thinking which has taken hold of London’s political establishment./21.

Would you mind if we just stepped back for a moment to review the big picture?

The only reliable chance the US has of sustainably reasserting its power in this century is a grand bargain with Europe, alongside another with key Asia-Pacific partners. /22.

The success of the US endeavour, now ramping up strongly under the Biden administration, is vital to Europe’s - & America’s - future.

And it can’t work without Europe’s concerted, increasingly powerful & rock-solid support. /23.

The EU/EEA - by which I include EU/EEA NATO members’ involvement in military power - is the only European game in town, adapting as it must & will to changing circumstances.

It’s an indispensable, giant, global partner. /24.

The UK, a bit player, able to disrupt but not to lead, will have to fall in line, be made to, or be contained. No one should confuse being valued as an ally & partner with power as an unattached, medium-sized actor/ potential disruptor in a world of behemoths. /25.

This is a much bigger moment than Suez. In the 60 years which followed, the intense 3-way cooperation between USA, Germany & UK was, alongside the increasingly important EC/EU, & our wider defence partnership in NATO, the cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security & prosperity. /26.

And by extension, of the US global order on which all we have achieved has depended, & continues to.

Most everything the UK can provide, the US can replace. Not without annoyance & short-term pain, granted. But don’t mistake the UK’s dependence on the US for the reverse. /27.

However, the US can neither replace the EU’s continental size, nor is huge economy & geostrategic location. Including Germany’s position within that, by the way. /28.

Nor EU defence spending (5x UK & 1/3x US). And is highly unlikely to want to replace the EU’s aid budget (2x US, over 3x UK, nearer 5x after planned UK cuts). /29.

If, contrary to my expectations, the US (or the EU) fails to understand all that & act on it, the UK might manage to carve out some free rides & self-aggrandising projects to populate the conceptual & practical vacuum that is “Global Britain”. /30.

But it will all be for nothing, as the systems, structures & force providing the essential basis for everything the UK hopes to do or achieve disintegrate around it. Leaving the UK, if it still exists, emasculated & alone, as the storm clouds whip up & chaos descends. /31.

But why would we assume the US or the EU will be so foolish? I don’t. My government doesn’t. Nor should you.

Back in 1990 Nicholas Ridley whined about Chancellor Kohl & European bureaucrats telling the UK what to do. /32.

He’d rather have been at war in the bomb shelters, Ridley said, at least having a chance to fight back.

Can we agree that was one of the stupidest things ever said by a European politician? /33.

Yet, in only slightly different words, it’s the essence of your own “sovereignty” hypothesis. And entirely consistent with the destabilising, destructive rhetoric you’re quoted as using, in the Sunday papers, today.

You know all that. /34.

The irony is, of course, that whereas the UK had a huge say in the big EU decisions, as a member, now you have none.

Not my choice. Not ours. Yours. /35.

And, on all the future, big decisions, notably those reached between the US & its EU allies, the UK will have to get on board or get out of the way. You know that too. /36.

You’re trying to avoid the consequences of your narrowly tactical, electoral calculations.

You won’t be able to.

So, can I suggest that you & your boss pause in your dizzying, disturbing ride toward UK oblivion? /37.

There’s still time & space for skilled, decisive & very necessary statecraft.

Within the UK, to prevent its degradation & implosion. And between the UK & its greatest allies: the US, Germany & others. /38.

There’s no majority in the UK for becoming a failed state, at the mercy of events & the decisions of others.

That’s where you’re headed.

Even if there were such a majority, it would be the highest responsibility of any decent political leadership to turn it around. /39.

You & your boss have one strategic task: to assemble the coalition needed to reverse this increasingly precipitate, tragic descent of a once respected, reliable, stable & prosperous country. /40.

That is my business. My country shares a continent with yours.

By the way, it’s remiss of me not to reiterate my congratulations on your elevation to the Cabinet. You carry an enormous responsibility.

Sincerely,

A Michaelis

German Ambassador to the Court of St James /41.

No such letter from the German Ambassador has been received. Presumably, none will ever be sent.

But, anyone doubting that it reflects conversations in & between Berlin, Washington, Paris & beyond is ... as in tune with reality as today’s Sunday Telegraph front page. /42. End

P.S. Some ask why I refer to @GermanAmbUK “attack” on @DavidGHFrost.

To be clear: (1) Criticism, or praise, of what the ambassador says isn’t the point. The implications are. (2) If “attack” worries you, “rebuke” is surely fair. (3) Such public exchanges are most unusual.