Thread by @tdarling1

March 7 Week in Review

Aloha!

There are some important developments to note this week in currencies, rates, and sectors.

Let’s start where it matters most - currencies.

The $USD 91.99 +1.22% turned bullish trend this week.

The world reserve currency is now +1.43% over the past 3-mos (60 trading days) and +2.34% YTD.

Equally important, the $EUR -1.32% has turned bearish trend, down -1.52% over the past 3 months and -2.49% YTD.

EUR joins CHF and JPY, both of which are in steep declines having broken trend in early February.

Among major market currencies, only CAD +0.52% , AUD -0.13%, and GBP -0.65%, remain bullish against the USD.

CAD, levered to a natural resource economy, was the strongest of the bunch last week.

The #BearSteepener in the UST market continued unabated with 10/2s to a new cycle high of 143.6 BPS.

The UST 10Y rose to 1.58% +12.08%, but the 30Y at 2.20% rose a more subdued 2.09%.

MOVE 69.37 -8.31%

Excepting $HYG +0.57%, there was no place to hide last week in fixed income, as stalwarts $CWB -4.16% (tied to convertibles in TSLA) and $IVOL -0.56% came under selling pressure.

$TLT -2.94% has been obliterated -11.93% YTD.

Metals remain divided by those that are precious and those that are base.

$GOLD -1.75%
$SILVER -4.35%
$PLAT -4.81%
$COPPER -0.24%

COPPER saw some selling on Thursday, but is up 15.94% YTD and remains bullish trade and trend.

If you have not been long energy, you have missed an epic bull run with WTIC +36.21% and GASO +46.45% YTD. Both added to gains last week.

$WTIC +7.46%
$BRENT +8.17%
$GASO +5.9%
$NATGAS -2.53%

$OVX 36.61 -15.82%

Ags have also been a great place to park your money with CORN +12.71% and SOYB +9.08% YTD. The sector was mixed this past week.

$SOYB +1.83%
$SUGAR -0.3%
$CORN -0.37%
$WHEAT -1.10%

Intra-week equity volatility raised havoc with global indices, but presented a buying opportunity on Thursday, with the $VIX closing 24.66 -11.77% on the week.

$SPX +0.81% mustered a gain, but the $CAC +1.39% was the strongest of the group.

Weekly change in major market global equities, all of which remain bullish trend:

$CAC +1.39%
$DAX +0.97%
$SPX +0.81%
$KOSPI +0.44%
$HSI +0.41%
$RUT -0.27%
$NIKK -0.35%
$SSEC -0.2%
$COMPQ -2.06%

Among US equity sectors, $XLY -2.69% is now bearish trade -8.95% and trend -0.77% along with $XLRE, $XLP, and $XLU.

$XLE +9.97%, $XME +6.02%, and $XLF +4.33%, and $XRT +3.05% remain the strongest sectors, with XLE +39.71% YTD.

Year to date, $EWZ -11.01%, $EWW -3.23% and $IDX -3.06% remain the weakest county funds I follow and are worthy shorts on any strength.

Note $EWW +2.31% and $EWZ +3.42% on the week.

Country funds worthy of your hard earned capital and all bullish trade and trend include:

$NORW +4.99% (weekly price change)
$INDA +3.8%
$THD +4.98%
$RSX +4.37%
$EWU +3.0%
$EWC +2.95%
$EWA +2.61%

The relative strength in the USD is my #1 concern coming into the middle of March, as it’s not bullish for the long EM and commodities trade. Perhaps, the 1.9T stim approval will knock it down?

Look what happened to USDCHF and USDJPY when they went bullish trend.

Remain vigilant, my friends, and have a profitable week!

NOTE: On vacation the next two weeks (celebrating 30 years of marriage) and 5-6 time zones away, so posts may be sporadic.

Since I suck at vacationing, I will likely be on #fintwit - just not at my ‘normal' hour.