Thread by @MatthewStiegler

1. Progressives are waking up to the importance of younger nominees for federal judges.

But one reason why it's so important hasn't gotten enough attention yet: circuit chief judgeships.

2. Circuit chief judges wield real power. Their control of opinion assignments and administrative control make them the most powerful non-Scotus federal judges. (@marinklevy and Judge Newman have an article on the way in @PennLRev on the office of the chief judge.)

3. Who becomes circuit chief is complicated, but the key part is that you can't become chief once you turn 65.

In practice, this means that younger nominees are far more likely to become chief than older ones.

4. The Third Circuit illustrates how this plays out.

McKee (commissioned at 47) was chief til '16. He stepped down early so that Smith (50) could become chief before he was too old. Smith will be succeeded by Chagares (43), then likely Hardiman (41).

5. Absent something unexpected, none of Obama's 5 appointees will be chief because they'll all already be too old when Hardiman's term as chief ends in 2035. Instead, Hardiman will be succeeded by Trump's nominee Matey (47).

6. Obama's CA3 appointees were 52, 56, 51, 46, and 56. If they'd been as young as Chagares and Hardiman, one of them would be following them as circuit chief.

They weren't, so probably they won't.

7. Because Bush II and Trump chose younger CA3 nominees than Obama did, if everything follows the normal course then the Third Circuit won't have a D-appointed chief judge from 2016 until at least 2042.

That's huge.

8. Progressives finally are starting to realize the importance of younger federal-judge nominees.

The power of circuit chief judgeships makes the stakes even higher. /end

(What do I mean by "likely," "the normal course," etc above? Basically I'm assuming everyone will be chief when eligible to, instead of deferring, stepping down early, going senior, retiring, being elevated to Scotus, or dying.)

Another way of looking at how important younger nominees are for controlling circuit CJ slots.

Hardiman is in line to be CJ from 2028-35. If he'd just been same age at commissioning as Obama's *youngest* CA3 judge, he'd be age-barred and Krause would be CJ those 7 years instead.