Thread by @OliverStuenkel

Brazil: The decision by a Supreme Court judge to annul Lula's convictions still needs to go to the full court for review. If the ex-president's political rights are restored, however, it'll reshape Brazil's political landscape. A few thoughts 🧵👇

1) The biggest beneficiary, of course, is the Workers' Party (PT), which would probably reassert its control over the left. Lula would have a good chance at making it into the run-off against Bolsonaro. Lula could be expected to chose a centrist(or even center-right) VP candidate

2) Bolsonaro is also likely to benefit politically. With a catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic, high unemployment, rising inflation and an economic collapse, the president can go back to what he likes best: fight an anti-communist crusade and benefit from anti-PT sentiment.

3) Bolsonaro will also benefit because a PT-Bolsonaro run-off will be ultra-polarized, a bit like a Bernie Sanders - Donald Trump matchup in the United States. Both candidates will say that a victory for their opponent will lead to the demise of the republic.

4) The corridor for centrist (broadly defined) candidates like Luciano Huck, Luiz Henrique Mandetta and Eduardo Leite just got narrower. João Doria's metamorphosis into a center-right candidate and attack Bolsonaro from there is suddenly thrown in doubt.

5) As @traumann points out, Faria Lima (Brazil's Wall Street), which had begun grown tired of Bolsonaro, is now more likely to back him again. A Lula candidacy would help unify the right and the far-right. Big question mark is what centrist voters would do.

6) While a Lula-Bolsonaro confrontation would be ultra-polarized, the big question is how younger voters relate to Lula who don't really remember his presidency (as @BrazilBrian pointed out, the median age in Brazil is 33).

Below a piece I wrote for @CarnegieEndow a few weeks ago on polarization and democratic risks in Brazil:
carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/17/bra…

7) I'd expect Lula to adopt a moderate 2002-style discourse & project himself as a Brazilian Biden, trying to thwart Bolsonaro's attempt to paint Lula as a Brazilian Fidel. It may work: there's some evidence that Brazilians are growing tired of culture wars+ non-stop polarization