Thread by @sethjlevy

This is the most self aware and realist a take as you are ever going to get from an establishment Republican.

The crisis they face is that they will be a forever minority party without effectively merging MAGA into the party.

There’s no way to get MAGA voters and reject Trump.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1368700988010491908

At the same time Trump has to confront some things to be everything he could be come 2024.

I do think tactically there were narrative and languaging choices that worked in 2016 but hurt in 2018 and 2020.

I say that while keeping in mind he got nearly 75,000,000 votes.

Trump lost the electoral college by around 40,000 votes.

And that’s accepting the assumption that everything was above board. It wasn’t.

But...

Trump could grow from here.

And the Trump that could get elected in 2024 won’t be a facsimile of the 2016 Trump.

Learning from his experience and adjusting will be the key to his future success.

The Trump that built Trump Tower was insufficient to build a casino empire in New Jersey.

He learnt from that failure.

What was most valuable was the name, the persona and the personality.

So instead of doing development projects on his own he let others license his name. Trump earned royalties while assuming a lot less risk.

He adjusted.

His ability to continually reinvent himself is what makes him so unique.

And so dangerous politically.

The values and principles and beliefs that make Trump the key alternative to establishment policies must remain. It’s the heart of MAGA, in short America First.

The presentation needs to mature.

And he needs to choose his battles wisely.

Take down Cheney, Thune and Murkowski. These scalps won’t cost you those states and inflict the maximum cost to the Republican establishment class.

As important to who you target is how you target them.

Do it on policy. On principle. On the opportunity of new blood.

No more personal attacks. He doesn’t need the shock value anymore. Just throw the pitch straight down the middle. They can’t hit it. Don’t get fancy trying to paint the edges. (Those are baseball analogies)

#HighHeat

In a certain sense Trump is starting over. Phase one remake the party in 2022. And the door is wide open to do it.

Burr, Toomey, Blunt, Shelby and Portman. All retiring. Johnson may also retire. Grassley too maybe.

This is a year like few others.

Trump is more popular today at the grassroots level than he has ever been.

Getting the right candidates to run, getting them the nomination and then getting them across the general election finish line is everything right now.

You must expend capital judiciously.

You can’t try to defeat every incumbent. It’s counter productive. It’s like trying to fight a war on 15 fronts. It’s not wise.

Nothing will weaken Trump 2024 more than massive Republican losses in 2022.

And nothing will empower him more than massive Republican wins in 2022.