Thread by @WillHayCardiff

There are legitimate and reasonable grounds to question whether any potential return of the 5-mile-rule in Wales by the Welsh Gov is a proportionate and necessary restriction on our liberties based on the current data.

This requires some unpacking so stay with me.

[Thread]

First let me be clear this is not advocating widespread rapid reopening of restrictions.

This not even necessarily saying that imposing the five mile rule would be wrong.

Just that there are questions that need answering.

Throughout the entire pandemic our freedoms have been curtailed and removed in the name of public safety.

For most part the public have understood and accepted it.

Taking our freedom in the name of safety isn't new.

We have to wear seatbelts, we can’t smoke indoors in public spaces, and can’t drive without a licence. Throughout the crisis it has almost become normal, accepted, and even welcomed when freedoms is taken away when cases rise.

Though the restrictions have been needed to save lives it is vital that they are never, ever, seen as normal.

Every decision regarding restricting our freedoms should be made with the question “is this necessary?” at the forefront of the decision-makers' minds.

The first question Mark Drakeford and the Welsh Government need to answer is:

Do the stats suggest that “stay local” restrictions are warranted?

Let’s look at what the current data in Wales says:

First off: hospital admissions. This is a key metric. One of the key aims of every lockdown has been to stop hospitals being overwhelmed.

Right now the 7-day rolling average for Covid hospital admissions is 53 - the lowest level since the end of the summer.

It's actually lower than the figure for much of July and August when we not only had no restrictions on travel but far more of the economy had also opened up.

Deaths is another key metric.

Yesterday was the first time since the 2nd wave began that there were no recorded new coronavirus deaths in the latest 24-hour period.

In the first wave this equivalent date was July 6. Interestingly this was the day that MD lifted the five-mile rule the first time around.

Other key metrics are all pointing in the right direction.

Case rates are down to less than 50 per 100,000. Test positivity is under 5%.

So given the WG has said it is being led by the data, is there not an argument that this is among the most favourable data they could hope to see?

Remember that pubs and gyms are still closed. People will not be allowed to travel to meet indoors. It is just about being able to travel to exercise in a different location. Is this really too risky given the current data?

The next question is whether potential "stay local" measures are about votes or about the virus?

Given that the risks from meeting outdoors are very low why can people not travel to a more rural location to exercise

When @WalesOnline put this point to Welsh Government minister Kirsty Williams she gave quite a strange response.

She pointed to areas of Ceredigion and Pembs who have very low cases.

She said: "Suddenly having an influx of people into some of these areas could cause some concern in those communities."

The focus of this seemed very much about perception and about avoiding causing “concern” in those communities as opposed to actually needing to protect them.

If we look at last summer we can see lifting the five-mile rule didn’t cause a spike in infections. The virus spiked again almost two months later once hospitality had re-opened and people returned from holidays without isolating.

The 3rd question is whether the Welsh Government’s tier system is now redundant?

At the start of Jan the WG made a great fuss about its new system for coming out of lockdown.

The alert levels in the “coronavirus control plan” gave 4 different tiers which were supposed to allow people in Wales to understand how we would be coming out of the lockdown.

Looking at it now it appears redundant when it comes to the lifting of restrictions.

We are currently in the highest tier of restrictions – level four. These are the “key indicators” for this tier as well as how that compares to the most up-to-date figures:

- Confirmed case rate more than 300 cases per 100,000 people rolling seven-day average (current rate is 47)

- Confirmed case rates for over-60s suggesting rapid growth (this is falling and many have been vaccinated)

- Test positivity above 10% over seven days (currently 4.8%)

- Forecast of Welsh population estimated to have Covid-19 is more than 1% (currently 0.48%)

- R rate above one (currently near to 0.7)

- Hospital capacity and likely pressure from increased cases in three weeks exceeding capacity (has been going down for some time and new admissions very low)

Rather than be in level four these indicators suggest that Wales should be in level one or two.

This is not to suggest that the WG is wrong to be cautious & have a step by step approach to lockdown lifting but serves to show that the detailed document they have previously published seems to have no bearing whatsoever into the practicalities of their decision-making

The final question is how can the 'stay local' rule last longer than three weeks?

The First Minister has said that it is his aim to re-open self-contained accommodation at Easter. This will only be three weeks after the potential imposition of the five-mile rule.

If the WG is inclined to have accommodation re-open and maintain a stay local rule it really begs the question of why it is not okay for someone to drive 25 miles for a walk but it is okay for someone from hundreds of miles away to drive to stay in accommodation overnight.

Now the caveats:

None of this is to say that the WG is wrong to consider a stay local rule.

There are a lot of balls to juggle with this decision. This includes the impact of the new variants which throw the data gathered at previous lifting of restrictions into doubt.

There is also the issue of enforcement. The vaguer you make the rules the harder it is for the police to enforce. Plus there is the behavioural side – when you give people an inch they are more inclined to take a mile.

On top of this is the fact that there are other restrictions to take into account. The plans to open places like hairdressers may factor into their calculations and eat into the headroom they have.

But even if we accept this rationale this shouldn’t prevent us from questioning these decisions. It is a matter of people’s liberty and we should never accept over-the-top restrictions as normal.

If you got this far down you're a real trooper.

Here is the article looking at all the information in great detail:
walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/…