Thread by @paulwaugh

Chris Whitty underlining repeatedly to @CommonsSTC that easing lockdown too early would lead to 'substantial' number of deaths. Even if vaccine was 99% effective, even if take up as good as it is now, that risk remains, he says.
Valuable backing for the PM's roadmap

"People should remember that things can turn bad very fast if you don't keep a very close eye on what's going on," Whitty says.

Key line from Whitty on vaccination of older people: “The idea that is a sort of get out of jail card, in terms of a surge of transmission, I think is to misremember where in the age spectrum the drive of transmission is - and it's in younger adults.”

"Look at what is happening in continental Europe at the moment where a lot of countries are going back into rates going up and having to close things down again."

Whitty: "If you look at the history of this all around the world, the history of this is not full of countries + individual leaders, wishing they had done more fast. It's full of leaders who wish they had actually acted quicker, and then been more careful as they take things off"

Whitty also pointing out that each of the 'blocks' in the PM's roadmap are "large blocks of potential risk", says they each include lots of different relaxations.

Sounds v much like the PM has pushed the envelope of what should be unlocked and when, given Whitty's caution.
He pleads: "Do not try and concertina up the five week breaks [between roadmap stages]" cos it takes min 4 wks to see effect of changes + ppl need 1 wk notice