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David Henig Profile picture
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9 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Some of this is a stockpile effect. So we need rather more figures to be sure. But trade theory would predict lower UK-EU trade given higher barriers (and not remotely made up by UK-global trade).
A big question for the UK economy is the adjustment over the next few years as a result of Brexit. I'm thinking a reduction in manufacturing as we lose our place in European supply chains. It is surprisingly little discussed, including in Parliament.
Very good thread this on the politics and economics of the UK government's approach to the EU. But perhaps doesn't ask the question clearly enough - is the government's number one priority in EU relations UK media coverage or UK business?
Because there is a better way to negotiate with the EU to get results for UK business. But it wouldn't necessarily get such good coverage from the media. Shouting followed by disguised defeats may be the best negotiating approach for the media, don't know I'm not a media expert.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
10 Mar
Just so predictable. At what point does it become obvious that the UK has had coming on for five years of negotiating failure with the EU and doubling the bluster and empty threat count is just going to keep the record going?
I'm sure Dominic Raab will enjoy having summoned the (Irish diplomat and) EU Charge d'affaires for a chat about vaccines but career diplomats will be cringing that while the UK is complaining about a blog post the EU and US are talking about the UK.
Always a tricky one to try to understand why passionate Brexiteers are so excited by recurring UK negotiating failures, and angrily hit out at those who point them out. Pulling the wool over their own eyes a bit, but also fear that any other way will mean Brussels takeover.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
I think you can be fairly sure that if the UK was doing poorly vaccinating people against covid and there were vaccines being exported from here the government would put in place restrictions and be widely applauded in the UK for doing so.
You can be equally sure that if the EU were well ahead of the UK in terms of vaccinations there would be plenty of snarky stories coming from the EU about how the UK had lost the plot, as indeed there have been about other things.
If you want to go the whole way on UK-EU vaccines it turns out that the UK was so not a part of Europe that those most clearly asserting that we're not a part of Europe are also those most loudly concerned with exactly what is happening in the EU.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
You can see the attractions, science and tech are UK strengths and likely to remain so. But I think the continued association between regulation and slow growth is a big problem, not least as after 40-odd years of this being UK policy there remains no great evidence for it.
Part of a thread yesterday. The lean towards regulatory flexibility in freeports or services regulations appears to favour services over manufacturing, the opposite of the apparent 'levelling up' agenda. But it fits with the anti-free trade agenda.
This, by @dsquareddigest on financial services regulation, goes further in saying it is regulation that in many respects makes trade, certainly true there as I have also heard from @charlotsmoore theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
Tweet sent at 10.45 pm, followed by complaint at 8 a.m. that I hadn't responded. Not I would suggest the best faith for engagement, but my failure to do so is already seen as prove of my guilt by those who had already declared me guilty.
To the best of my knowledge I receive no EU funding. To the best of my knowledge @DCBMEP has received considerable EU funding and may still do so. So that clearly isn't relevant to anything (the EU has often funded anti-EU campaigners amazingly).
The UK Trade Forum is / was a collective of UK trade experts, you can check out the material here - nothing recent I'm afraid. We also had events for example on CPTPP. uktradeforum.net. Unfunded, though if anyone wants to change that we're all ears.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
8 Mar
To what extent is Brexiteer anger towards the EU motivated by the EU's failure to treat us like the member we voted not to be?
Remembering that it was the big Brexit supporters who predicted the EU would give us special treatment, while us apparently pro-EU shills kept saying that the EU was actually not that nice to third countries as the UK would be.
Supposedly experienced politicians and diplomats claiming they "didn't realise what the EU was like" are merely confessing their own short-sightedness. Not making the devastating case against the EU they think they are.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
8 Mar
Indeed. And on consideration the proposed economic approach - we are going to be more nimble in terms of regulations than our competition and be cautious with public spending - is mostly the one we have been following for 40-odd years.
Vaccines is actually the excellent demonstration case government supporters say it is. But only seen in the round. Yes the UK is ahead. Hurray! But we are now seeing French and German governments getting their acts together. Net economic advantage - limited at best.
And for every regulatory success there are regulatory failures - Grenfell, and the financial crash to name but two obvious cases. Not that other countries don't also have regulatory failures, rather that nimbleness is unlikely to be much of a basis for an economic policy.
Read 6 tweets

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