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David Henig Profile picture
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10 Mar, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Just so predictable. At what point does it become obvious that the UK has had coming on for five years of negotiating failure with the EU and doubling the bluster and empty threat count is just going to keep the record going?
I'm sure Dominic Raab will enjoy having summoned the (Irish diplomat and) EU Charge d'affaires for a chat about vaccines but career diplomats will be cringing that while the UK is complaining about a blog post the EU and US are talking about the UK.
Always a tricky one to try to understand why passionate Brexiteers are so excited by recurring UK negotiating failures, and angrily hit out at those who point them out. Pulling the wool over their own eyes a bit, but also fear that any other way will mean Brussels takeover.
Meanwhile the UK is about to achieve our second international negotiating success of the year, resolving WTO quotas after seeing US Scotch tariffs lifted. Both of which also involved aligned with the EU. Following from replicating EU trade deals.
It isn't going to be the case that the UK will only achieve international trade wins via the EU. But the EU have a proven record of negotiating with other countries (NB not with pharma companies). We might perhaps learn something from that?
I suspect the pattern is set for now of empty threats and failure in public towards the EU, while trying to make deals behind the scenes with them. And finding our own trade policy a bit harder than we expected, not least with countries wanting revenge our joint wins with the EU.
And in the mean time UK business is going to suffer from the performative bluster of the government with regard to the EU. Too early for definitive figures, but it isn't looking great.

All in all, no way to run a country, but the one we're likely stuck with for a while.
PS all of this... but that feeling that Johnson is signed up to something he has no intention of implementing (the Northern Irelant protocol) will be shared across the EU and US. Frost's actions last week will be seen as proof. Time for the EU to call the US in...

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David Henig Profile picture
12 Mar
Headline January trade figures - food exports to the EU down nearly two-thirds, chemicals over half, goods in total 40%. You can attribute some (perhaps a quarter) to previous month stockpiling, so then the question is how much of the rest is delayed, how much is lost?
The fall in imports from the looks more obviously a stockpile effect as for example in chemicals and machinery from the EU there is a noticeable bump in November and December. Still a close to 30% fall in EU imports in January is a big change.
Usual caveats apply even outside of Brexit - single month figures are unreliable. For example non-EU exports in late 2019 are spectacularly high, which IIRC was thought to be with gold transactions to Switzerland. Even so, adding to an emerging picture.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Mar
Those who are solely blaming the EU for the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol seem to have forgotten that the UK government claimed in December that all had been fixed... Michael Gove said so in Parliament conservativehome.com/parliament/202…
Just going back even further to October 2019 and Boris Johnson saying the Withdrawal Agreement / Northern Ireland protocol preserved the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement... gov.uk/government/spe… Image
Seems to suggest that the UK government were never in fact ready for a no-deal Brexit. What if, hypothetically, the EU knew that and always treated no-deal talk as bluster?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Mar
However often the UK government says "Indo-Pacific" the fact is we are not going to be a major player in that region. Basic fact of geography. Same applies to the EU. Same does not apply to the US, which some appear surprised to learn has a Pacific coast. ft.com/content/a323c7…
We'll gloss over certain aspects of history on which there may not be shared interpretations between the UK and some major countries in the Indo-Pacific region. But usually best if we don't forget them entirely because India and China don't.
Sure friendly countries in the Indo-Pacific region don't mind our interest and trade deals, but they know that gravity is important in trade, indeed some of them learned that the hard way after 1973. They also know that UK students often take a gap year in their region...
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
I think you can be fairly sure that if the UK was doing poorly vaccinating people against covid and there were vaccines being exported from here the government would put in place restrictions and be widely applauded in the UK for doing so.
You can be equally sure that if the EU were well ahead of the UK in terms of vaccinations there would be plenty of snarky stories coming from the EU about how the UK had lost the plot, as indeed there have been about other things.
If you want to go the whole way on UK-EU vaccines it turns out that the UK was so not a part of Europe that those most clearly asserting that we're not a part of Europe are also those most loudly concerned with exactly what is happening in the EU.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
You can see the attractions, science and tech are UK strengths and likely to remain so. But I think the continued association between regulation and slow growth is a big problem, not least as after 40-odd years of this being UK policy there remains no great evidence for it.
Part of a thread yesterday. The lean towards regulatory flexibility in freeports or services regulations appears to favour services over manufacturing, the opposite of the apparent 'levelling up' agenda. But it fits with the anti-free trade agenda.
This, by @dsquareddigest on financial services regulation, goes further in saying it is regulation that in many respects makes trade, certainly true there as I have also heard from @charlotsmoore theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Mar
Some of this is a stockpile effect. So we need rather more figures to be sure. But trade theory would predict lower UK-EU trade given higher barriers (and not remotely made up by UK-global trade).
A big question for the UK economy is the adjustment over the next few years as a result of Brexit. I'm thinking a reduction in manufacturing as we lose our place in European supply chains. It is surprisingly little discussed, including in Parliament.
Very good thread this on the politics and economics of the UK government's approach to the EU. But perhaps doesn't ask the question clearly enough - is the government's number one priority in EU relations UK media coverage or UK business?
Read 4 tweets

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