Thread by @PaulBlustein

Now that 10 years have passed since the #Fukushima meltdown, I wonder: are the doomsayers having guilt pangs?

They should. It’s clearer than ever that their scaremongering was grossly misguided, and inflicted severe harm.
Start w/this superb article.🧵
sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/p…

People in Fukushima are suffering—but not from cancer, or other physiological illness caused by radiation. Rather, it’s stress and stress-related problems. That’s the finding by Masaharu Tsubokura, the heroic doctor profiled in the story. 2/

And there’s a newly-released, exhaustive survey of the evidence.
3/
theguardian.com/environment/20…

A few of the report’s findings:
“No reports of an excess in the incidence of childhood or adult leukemia among Fukushima residents.”
“No credible evidence of excess congenital anomalies, stillbirths, preterm deliveries or low birthweights related to radiation exposure.”
4/

Thyroid cancer has been found in a couple of hundred Fukushima children, according to the report. Isn’t that proof the scaremongers were right? Nope, not if you “follow the science,” as we’re being sensibly exhorted these days.
5/

Several screenings involving 200,000-300,000 Fukushima kids were undertaken, using super-sensitive ultrasound. Although thyroid abnormalities were quite high, similar incidence was found when those new diagnostic procedures were used elsewhere in Japan and Korea.
6/

In other words, the explanation for the thyroid issues is almost certainly enhanced diagnosis—which might well be called over-diagnosis, since thyroid cancer (ominous as it may sound) is relatively easy to treat. For more info:
7/
unscear.org/docs/publicati…

In any event, all this contrasts starkly with the predictions that were emanating from the anti-nuclear movement in the months after the disaster. Several prominent “experts” claimed that as many as 1 million would die from the effects of radiation.
8/

“An epidemic of cancer!” predicted Dr. Helen Caldicott, who claimed (falsely) that Chernobyl caused “close to 1 million deaths…from cancers, congenital deformities, immune deficiencies, cardiovascular diseases,” etc., and warned that Fukushima “may…even far exceed” that.
9/

Others making headlines predicting up to 1 million deaths were Chris Busby and Arne Gundersen, while the Nordic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Group was more conservative, putting the likely death toll at a *mere* 600,000.
10/

Presumably Caldicott et al, & their allies in Japan, will claim that the Japanese authorities are hiding the grisly truth. (Trust me—if there were any basis for such a story, the media would be all over it.) Or they’ll claim more time must pass before cancers materialize.
11/

But surely, deep down, they must be rattled about the utter lack of evidence supporting their wild assertions.
Will they recant? Fat chance.
12/

But their pious professions of concern for Fukushima should be judged in light of the myriad social problems that they helped cause:
Kids dragged to distant prefectures by overanxious parents. Women afraid to become pregnant. Farmers unable to sell unfairly tainted crops.
13/

To be sure, one major reason for those social problems is that many Japanese thought they were lied to. They didn’t trust reassurances from their own gov't or academic experts.
But the worst, most damaging dishonesty was perpetrated by a US official.
14/
slate.com/technology/201…

Please don’t misunderstand me. TEPCO and its regulators hardly merit absolution. Fault for the disaster rests with them—theirs is the original sin.
15/

And there’s plenty of room for legitimate debate about what levels of radiation are safe and what aren’t. Is it prudent to move back to all the areas close to Fukushima Dai-ichi that the government has deemed habitable? Darned if I know.
16/

But the evidence of the past ten years is mounting to the point of incontrovertibility. The scaremongers were wrong, by many orders of magnitude, and they made a bad situation a lot worse.
17/

To conclude on an upbeat note: A box of Fukushima produce was just delivered to our house—turnips, spinach, sweet potatoes, carrots, onions, cucumbers, apples, etc.—which will be used in the dinner we’ll have tomorrow, the 10th anniversary of 3/11.
18/

And as I tweeted a few days ago, we’ll wash down our meal with Fukushima sake, while remembering the real tragedy of that terrible day—the 16,000-plus who perished in the tsunami.
end/

https://twitter.com/PaulBlustein/status/1363451675768479745?s=20