Have been crunching numbers on the relative size of the #CareEconomy in Canada, re paid work and contribution to GDP.
First, definition: health services (includes eldercare, home care, long-term care, social assistance) and education services (from childcare through PSE).

/2
Why include education services? Because it develops the potential of our youngest citizens, labour market entrants, and those with jobs or displaced from jobs.
/3
Pre-pandemic (2019) the Care Economy's % of GDP: 12.3% [health 7%, educ 5.3%]. Was 12.25% in 2020.

cf
Real estate: 12.7% (13.7% in 2020)
Manufacturing: 10% (9.5% in 2020)
Construction: 7.2% (7.3%)
Finance/Insurance: 6.9% (7.6%)
Oil and Gas: 5.6% (5.6%)
Retail: 5% (5.2%)

/4
The Care Economy's contribution to GDP rivals any of the main drivers of the economy.
It also dwarfs all sectors in terms of jobs.
I'll use all mining, quarrying, oil and gas re jobs below, which accounted for 7.9% of GDP pre-pandemic 7.55% in 2020 (mostly O&G, 5.6% both yrs)
/5
Pre-pandemic (2019) the Care Economy's % of jobs: 20.3% [health 13.1%, educ 7.2%]. (21% in 2020)

Retail: 11.6% (11.5.% in 2020)
Manufacturing: 9.2% (9.3%)
Construction: 7.7% (7.6%)
Finance/Insurance: 4.4% (5%)
Real Estate: 1.9% (1.8%)
Mining, quarrying, Oil&Gas: 1.4% (1.3%)
/6
So the Caring Economy is a bigger contributor to GDP than all the other main drivers in the economy (incl real estate; and even comes close to the combo of manufacturing and O&G)
*and*
it accounts for 1 in 5 jobs, almost double the closest comparator (retail).

/6
At over 12% of GDP and 21% of all jobs, the Caring Economy has the potential to be the #cdnecon powerhouse for recovery, and a major source of good jobs.
It could play the role that the manufacturing sector played in creating the middle class from 1950s-70s.
#FutureOfworkers
/7
The Care Economy will expand anyway because of population aging. By policy design or market forces?
We could improve the way we deal with the pandemic and lay the foundation for post-pandemic recovery.
If only we stopped discounting the value of the sector, re GDP and jobs!
~fin

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More from @ArmineYalnizyan

7 Mar
"Immigration" debates that only focus on permanent newcomers are myopic.
The stunning trends in CDA's reliance on the temporary are embarrassing.

Cd @marcomendicino's plan to up "immigration" offer an opportunity to reduce this insanity?
thestar.com/news/insight/2…

#FutureOfWorkers
"Ironically, admitting more immigrants may be the surest path to a more equitable recovery"
"Though hard to imagine right now, we will soon be looking at widespread labour shortages"
So will every other rich nation dealing with population aging. Expect competition for newcomers!
Recipe for more immigration: More transitioning of temporary residents to permanent residents, please @marcomendocino.
Reverse these trends, that only started mid 2000s, and which defy one of foundations on which Canada became the 10th largest economy in the world: immigration.
Read 6 tweets
6 Mar
Hello Alberta
I was comparing which province's women saw the most roll-back of gains in employment equity due to the pandemic.
It's you guys.
Women's employment rate in 2020 was back at the level it was in 1984.
P.S. More AB women had paid work than anywhere in CDA not long ago
cc. @LindsayTedds

It won't get any prettier, because the AB gov't is focused on balancing its budget, so is cutting the one good source of paid work for women: public service jobs.
Who's next in the pandemic parade?

Ontario.

The share of women with paid work is back at 1993 levels. (BTW this includes full- and part-time work, well paid and crappy jobs.)

Ontario peaked in the share of women doing paid work in 2007.
Read 7 tweets
9 Jan
An economist tackles the notion that competition law is about protecting consumers.
Notes economics views competition as being predominantly about "efficiency".
"You can't talk about competition without talking about power and dominance"
Keep your eyes on @RobinShaban, people.
You *live* this, but not often taught.

Pricing strategies among a small number of players in a market often devolve into collusion. (Think telcomm; grocery stores and bread prices; oil)
Not just abt consumer choice, but standards and scrutiny for incumbents and *new* entrants.
Market structure and market share is part of competition-restricting practices, but proving *illegality* requires proving a merger/accelerating market share leads to price increases or undermines innovation. Hard to show evidence, as allegation is the this is *going* to happen.
Read 25 tweets
8 Jan
My sweetheart (MS) is on fire today.
I will provide second-hand commentary from the untwittered.
"Imagine how bad it would be if COVID weren't a hoax!" ~MS
In response to today's unbelievably ugly top local story in by @egpayne, Care work by day, shelter by night:

"What is this government*'s solution? Building more homeless shelters?" ~MS

ottawacitizen.com/news/local-new…

*@fordnation
Read 7 tweets
24 Oct 20
This article has crystallized some back-burner thoughts I've had on the rise in popularity of the term "K-shaped recovery".

Here I go:
The term causes you to think about recoveries differently.
Even if you aren't an economist, you can quickly grasp the meaning of the [desirable] V (a quick rebound), the W [double-dip recession, with rebound followed by another decline] and the Nike swoosh (long slow recovery).
This recession saw the rise in parlance of a new letter/analogy.
The K made you intuitively understand there are different trajectories within one recovery. And that can be dangerous.
The letter K is problematic, tho.
Read 23 tweets
19 Aug 20
Just to be clear on why immigration levels are the biggest factor when it comes to #cdnecon's future growth:
Economic growth (as measured by GDP, really the only game in town) only comes from three sources in the global system:
+
1. Labour market growth (add people and stir)
2. Productivity growth (do more with less/something that hasn't been done before)
3. Net exports (exports minus imports, which if positive adds to GDP)
+
[yes we love to laugh at The Donald's economic analysis, but net exports have been the secret sauce in the Global North's growth strategy for decades - maybe longer. Mathematically adds to/subtracts from GDP, you love it when it's a positive and worry when it's a negative.]
+
Read 14 tweets

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