Just think, if Trump ran there would be a good chance the vote would be so fractured he could win
I shudder to think, but Trump might just run for California Governor
- He can scam, I mean, raise more money
- He gets to hold hate fests, I mean, campaign rallies
- He can rail on how bad big state Democrats are
- If he loses, he can just claim it was vote fraud
Differential privacy is essentially the fuzzing of data in order to prevent someone from being able to infer individuals' census responses from the released aggregated data. An analogy is perhaps figuring out the individual numbers in a Sudoku puzzle
Why this matters to the census is the Census Bureau stated it interprets the confidentiality provisions of individuals' responses to the census found in Title 13 of the U.S. code to require data fuzzing
One of the important relationships in the America Goes to the Polls report is percent mail ballot usage vs. turnout rate. There is a clear positive trend. Since states have many laws that affect mail balloting, usage is a better measure than looking at one law in isolation
I do not necessarily think that mail balloting increased turnout in the 2020 election, rather that in an exceptionally high turnout election held during a pandemic, mail balloting offered a safe way for people who wished to practice social distancing to participate
The Census Bureau is now saying the data for redistricting will not be released until September. The delay now seriously threatens the drawing of new districts before the 2022 elections and is sure to spawn lawsuits as states seek to extend legal deadlines nytimes.com/2021/02/11/us/…
The pandemic and the Trump administration's rush to short-circuit the count must have done a real number on the census
The release of these census data for redistricting continues to be a moving target. Just a week or so ago, census was saying these data would be released on July 30. If I were in charge of redistricting, I would not be certain of even this new September release date
Virginia new voter registrations were down slightly in 2020 from 2016. An increase in new online registrations almost made up for a decrease in new paper registrations
Virginia extended its deadline for the receipt of mail ballots (postmarked by Election Day). 10,901 mail ballots were received in the extended period. 2,063 mail ballots were received after the deadline and were rejected
There really is a simple answer to this problem: don’t invite liars on to your programs. Republicans are now in the minority. There is no news value of having them on to spout and mainstream conspiracy theories
I think the media is broken. And that is it. There is no both sides about the election outcome. Inviting guests on to shows to spout conspiracy theories has downstream effects that are destroying peoples' lives, all for a few more clicks and eyeballs
North Carolina party registration changes over past week
Rep -> something else
3,007
Dem -> something else
667
Most of these changes are to Unaffiliated
Rep -> Unaffiliated
2,650
Dem -> Unaffiliated
484
These statewide changes appear to confirm anecdotes of persons changing their party registration newsweek.com/swing-states-r…
Hard to gauge the significance of these party registration changes. On one hand, they're a small proportion of the 8.2 million NC registered voters. On the other, changing party registration is not a common thing, so they may represent stronger undercurrents