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11 Mar, 8 tweets, 3 min read
However often the UK government says "Indo-Pacific" the fact is we are not going to be a major player in that region. Basic fact of geography. Same applies to the EU. Same does not apply to the US, which some appear surprised to learn has a Pacific coast. ft.com/content/a323c7…
We'll gloss over certain aspects of history on which there may not be shared interpretations between the UK and some major countries in the Indo-Pacific region. But usually best if we don't forget them entirely because India and China don't.
Sure friendly countries in the Indo-Pacific region don't mind our interest and trade deals, but they know that gravity is important in trade, indeed some of them learned that the hard way after 1973. They also know that UK students often take a gap year in their region...
Fine to have an Indo-Pacific policy. But our European and Transatlantic ones are always going to be far more important for the success of the UK. Geography.
Good (old) article on the subjest of UK returning east of Suez... h/t @oldtrotter "Frederick the Great once said, “He who defends everywhere defends nothing.” A feeble and overstretched global military presence is equal to no presence at all"

jia.sipa.columbia.edu/online-article…
All the shallowest and most disingenuous Brexiteer thinking on the EU and globally on show here, EU in the wrong over Northern Ireland (no mention of repeated UK threats)... vaccines... EU don't want a proper relationship... global trade opening... thetimes.co.uk/article/its-th…
The UK remains stuck between the anti-EU folk for whom everything is their fault but fortunately distance doesn't matter / 5p off Australian wine will make all the difference and the pro-EU types for whom GB or perhaps England is about to collapse into the sea.

Great...
Very good on the contradictions of the UK's China policy. ft.com/content/39cc61…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
13 Mar
An apparent analysis, details not provided, suggesting the UK will save tens of billions by beating the EU in vaccinations by one to two months, leads The Times front page. The very real ONS data showing a 40% drop in exports to the EU is a small story on page four.
As before the UK is doing well on vaccinations. It probably has an economic benefit. We did badly on preventing deaths previously though, meaning tougher lockdowns and a bigger economic hit. But that seems forgotten in the current fawning media coverage.
Meanwhile the biggest rise in trade barriers in modern history, with a likely long term economic hit of several percent of GDP, is considered either unimportant or more likely inconvenient.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Mar
On the question of import checks on food and other products coming into Britain. As ever in trade and regulatory policy this is not straightforward. Fewer checks on EU products is going to mean more risks, and also demands for same from other countries.
Now given that failing to check food products coming into Britain (Northern Ireland is under EU rules) risks illness, death, contamination of our products and much more you need to get this right. The public will be all over any failure and rightly so.
On the other hand you don't typically check every single individual item coming into a country, rather you have broader agreements with other countries underpinned by by an overall system and regular checks. It is quite a process. See here for EU. ec.europa.eu/food/safety/in…
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Mar
It won't be a single EU response to UK provocations but a series of decisions that collectively affects the UK economy in the way the local economic superpower can. But like the December agreement the UK government and naive supporters might claim triumph. ft.com/content/d19633…
It is still quite something to behold to see the UK government and supporters claim two great trimuphs in EU negotiations that gave the EU everything they wanted, and the UK far less. More damagingly it is those negotiatring failures causing much UK belligerence.
UK negotiating strategy with the EU is currently that to overcome the problems of the two failed negotiations they must double down on the threats that led to the failures. It is an unconvincing strategy.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Mar
Headline January trade figures - food exports to the EU down nearly two-thirds, chemicals over half, goods in total 40%. You can attribute some (perhaps a quarter) to previous month stockpiling, so then the question is how much of the rest is delayed, how much is lost?
The fall in imports from the looks more obviously a stockpile effect as for example in chemicals and machinery from the EU there is a noticeable bump in November and December. Still a close to 30% fall in EU imports in January is a big change.
Usual caveats apply even outside of Brexit - single month figures are unreliable. For example non-EU exports in late 2019 are spectacularly high, which IIRC was thought to be with gold transactions to Switzerland. Even so, adding to an emerging picture.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Mar
Those who are solely blaming the EU for the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol seem to have forgotten that the UK government claimed in December that all had been fixed... Michael Gove said so in Parliament conservativehome.com/parliament/202…
Just going back even further to October 2019 and Boris Johnson saying the Withdrawal Agreement / Northern Ireland protocol preserved the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement... gov.uk/government/spe…
Seems to suggest that the UK government were never in fact ready for a no-deal Brexit. What if, hypothetically, the EU knew that and always treated no-deal talk as bluster?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Mar
Just so predictable. At what point does it become obvious that the UK has had coming on for five years of negotiating failure with the EU and doubling the bluster and empty threat count is just going to keep the record going?
I'm sure Dominic Raab will enjoy having summoned the (Irish diplomat and) EU Charge d'affaires for a chat about vaccines but career diplomats will be cringing that while the UK is complaining about a blog post the EU and US are talking about the UK.
Always a tricky one to try to understand why passionate Brexiteers are so excited by recurring UK negotiating failures, and angrily hit out at those who point them out. Pulling the wool over their own eyes a bit, but also fear that any other way will mean Brussels takeover.
Read 8 tweets

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