Quietly, a Vote Leave prime minister and chancellor have accepted that so-called project fear was right all along.
m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/brex…
Overall, the net cost of Johnson’s Brexit to the public finances will come in at almost £30 billion each year.
The chancellor announced a further £29 billion of extra taxes by 2025, almost as much as Norman Lamont’s 1993 tax bombshell budget, to fill the projected fiscal hole caused by the pandemic. As a result, the tax take will rise to its highest as a proportion of GDP since the 1960s.
Remarkably, on the government’s own forecasts, none of these taxes would have been necessary if we had remained in the EU. Last Wednesday’s tax hike was really only needed to settle the Brexit bill.
None of this is costless for the UK taxpayer. The OBR’s own assessment suggests that trading with the EU on WTO terms could trigger a further 2% long term hit to national income, requiring a further £20 billion of tax rises or spending cuts. Even this estimate –
may underestimate the long-term economic consequences. An unstable and acrimonious relationship between the UK and EU will deter inward investment and see skilled migrants leave the country in increased numbers, further shrinking tax revenues.
The government’s uncooperative approach to relations with the EU seems to be becoming a feature of government policy rather than a bug. But the consequences of this ongoing row for our living standards and public services are real. The deeper the rift, the higher the taxes we pay

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More from @mafevema

13 Mar
Staggering hypocrisy (like on vaccines exports) of Johnson on the NI Protocol exposed by the BBC.
Just 4 days after Johnson's triumphant signing of the WA, the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) produced an analysis of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill .
bbc.com/news/amp/uk-no…
DExEU report was clear: "Goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will be required to complete both import declarations & Entry Summary Declarations because the UK will be applying the EU's custom code in Northern Ireland"
This means "additional documentation required on all agri-food goods moving from GB to NI to ensure that they comply with the necessary regulations," including "Export Health Certificates for products of animal origin, fish &live animals & phytosanitary certificates for plants
Read 9 tweets
12 Mar
DAVID FROST 02/2020:
"In brief, all these studies exaggerate –in my view- the impact of non-tariff barriers, they exaggerate customs costs, in some cases by orders of magnitude" & "also assume unproven decline in trade with implausible large effects on Britain’s productivity."
DAVID FROST TODAY: uncharacteristically subdued (but still lying about trade being back to normal)
Sunny uplands?
Project Fear?
Read 4 tweets
10 Mar
Thou hypocrite, @borisjohnson first cast out the beam out of thine own eye
& then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.
Last tweet of the day on the UK vaccine posturing 1/
@nyt notes that "The EU exported 25 million doses of vaccines produced in its territory LAST MONTH to 31 countries with BRITAIN (Pfizer)& Canada the top destinations".2/
"Practically speaking, ban or no ban, Britain is not exporting vaccines authorized for use at home. The country has said it would be prepared to give excess doses to Ireland, though only after it was done with its vaccination efforts at home" 3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Mar
Hello Brexiters criticising "SELFISH EU" : 174 shipments of millions of vaccines manufactured in the EU to 30 other countries since 30/1/21
Meanwhile shipments to other countries by US & UK are still zero: YES, ZERO 00000000
This doesn't stop our PM giving morality lessons to others & stating in his Munich speech that "we in the UK have kept the flame of cooperation alive". 🤣😅
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
Absolutely correct from @NicolaSturgeon to put the counterfactual. If the matter had not been referred when they included alleged criminal allegations, she would have been criticised for this too.Whatever happened she would have been criticised. As she says an invidious situation
"really difficult situation, really difficult judgement". Absolutely. Given what AS went through, she understands he took a different view. But that does not make the decision (to refer the matter) wrong.
I completely agree that mediation - rejected by the complainants- nor arbitration of such a matter would have been right. As she said she could not intervene to bring them about to "thwart the natural course of the investigation"
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
@NicolaSturgeon demonstrates once again how she is the best politician in the UK. A masterful opening statement skillfully mixing political & personal, just the right tone in my view. What a fighter she is.
And what mastery of her brief. She hardly glances at her notes.
She answers the first questions exposing clearly the difficulties of setting policies, the complexity of taking decisions under multiple pressures, how every choice is always balanced against others.
Read 18 tweets

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