Thread by @mafevema

Quietly, a Vote Leave prime minister and chancellor have accepted that so-called project fear was right all along.
m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/brex…

Overall, the net cost of Johnson’s Brexit to the public finances will come in at almost £30 billion each year.

The chancellor announced a further £29 billion of extra taxes by 2025, almost as much as Norman Lamont’s 1993 tax bombshell budget, to fill the projected fiscal hole caused by the pandemic. As a result, the tax take will rise to its highest as a proportion of GDP since the 1960s.

Remarkably, on the government’s own forecasts, none of these taxes would have been necessary if we had remained in the EU. Last Wednesday’s tax hike was really only needed to settle the Brexit bill.

None of this is costless for the UK taxpayer. The OBR’s own assessment suggests that trading with the EU on WTO terms could trigger a further 2% long term hit to national income, requiring a further £20 billion of tax rises or spending cuts. Even this estimate –

may underestimate the long-term economic consequences. An unstable and acrimonious relationship between the UK and EU will deter inward investment and see skilled migrants leave the country in increased numbers, further shrinking tax revenues.

The government’s uncooperative approach to relations with the EU seems to be becoming a feature of government policy rather than a bug. But the consequences of this ongoing row for our living standards and public services are real. The deeper the rift, the higher the taxes we pay