🏴🇬🇧 I’ve spent recent weeks trying to work out what the Whitehall plan is to counter Scottish independence.
Talked to half a dozen cabinet ministers, plus Gov advisers, pro-UK camp figures. Here’s my best read-out... (thread) 1/
There is essentially a two-pronged strategy...
Prong 1: No referendum any time soon, whatever the result of Holyrood elections in May
Prong 2: Low key campaign to counter independence by existing pro-UK bodies and a billion-pound spending spree
Prong 1: It’s a no
Has been the PM’s stance for a long time that he’s not about to grant a referendum.
There is a desire to elevate that in the coming weeks, clearly + loudly laying out the arguments before May elections.
The reason partly due to timings.
Senior figures in Unionist planning want Scottish voters to fully understand why PM won’t grant a referendum
Why? So if SNP wins a majority + demands indyref2 they can say ‘no, for reasons previously stated’. Ie they don’t look bounced into it.
But the messaging is more subtle than simply ‘never’. Instead it is ‘not now’.
Ministers will argue it would be “reckless” + “madness” to hold a vote on a huge constitutional change during a once in a century killer pandemic.
This buys them time. That line can most likely hold all the way through 2021 (Covid isn’t about to disappear fully).
It also chimes with polling that shows a majority of Scots don’t want to hold a referendum immediately.
The PM will be making this argument on Sunday when he addresses the Scottish Tory conference.
It is understood he will make clear he won’t grant indyref2 even if the SNP wins a majority in Holyrood.
One side note. His message will be a little tempered by the fact the Scottish Tories actually benefit politically from the spectre of indyref2.
Their strategy for May Holyrood elections is premised on fears another referendum could happen if Sturgeon wins a majority.
Another key part of the ‘no to indyref2’ messaging will be about “clarity”, or rather the lack of it in the SNP pitch.
What happens to Scottish pensions? The Scottish-English border? Currency? EU membership? (Familiar uncertainties pushed by the 2014 pro-UK campaign).
Prong 2: The fight back
First things first: There is no appetite at the top of the UK Government for creating a Better Together 2 at this stage. Because....
Firstly, launching one would make it appear like a referendum is a foregone conclusion.
Secondly, Labour got burned by the ‘in bed with the Tories’ attacks last time and are reluctant to repeat the format.
Instead, ministers believe the web of pro-UK campaign groups / think tanks / bodies already out there can lead the charge.
They are watching them closely, sometimes interacting with key figures. Plus more are launching soon.
Among those on the radar: Scotland Can, These Islands, Scottish Business UK, Scotland in Union, Scotland Matters.
To make clear: These are autonomous groups, in no way overseen by the UK Gov. But ministers believe they are key to countering SNP narratives.
Also, crucially, is the money
The UK Internal Market Act, which caused such a ruckus on the Northern Irish front, had another big significance that slipped under the radar.
It confirmed UK could spend in Scotland etc on devolved areas like transport and culture.
It means the UK Government is now piling more than a billion quid directly into Scotland through regional deals etc.
The hope: This is UK funding that circumvents the SNP Government and for which the UK gets the credit.
One example in this area. I understand a new UK “trade and investment hub” in Edinburgh is coming, with as many as 60 staff there by 2022.
Government source: “The way we'll save the Union is by showing Westminster can deliver for Scottish people and businesses.”
There is also blue sky thinking going on in the Cabinet. (Think on similar plains to the PM’s tunnel under the Irish Sea).
Here is one such idea...
Jacob Rees-Mogg is proposing the Commons sits for a fortnight each year in either Holyrood, Stormont or the Welsh Assembly.
Idea is that would happen in the two weeks in September after the summer recess and before the break for party conferences.
Would effectively mean 650 MPs touring the UK en masse each Sep. Cost questions countered by fact expenses system currently covers trips to Brussels.
Rees-Mogg understood to have discussed it with the Commons Speaker (who is...unsold). Idea still very much in its infancy.
The size of chambers would of course be an issue. When I raised that, was told Commons doesn’t fit 650 MPs and that people cram in / stand for debates.
Obviously this would need PM / Parli / devolved admin approval to happens. But shows the blue sky thinking in Cabinet.
Two last bits....
1) There is little appetite from the top of UK Government for a new major devolution pitch.
Some argued that happened during/after the 2014 referendum and failed to end appeal of Scottish independence for many.
2) The plan to save the Union is being thrashed out over cigarettes near Horse Guards Parade.
Often when Alister Jack and Michael Gove need to talk through policy they do so over a fag between their offices. One insider: “It’s literally by the bike sheds.”
The full longish piece, including fears over Boris Johnson’s popularity in Scotland, is here. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
As part of our package today former No 10 pollster @jamesjohnson252 writes online about how you win the undecideds in the indyref debate. In short: head not heart. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/1…
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Children's minister Vicky Ford said if kids get lateral flow test positive, then PCR negative, they CAN’T go back to school
That is wrong, No 10 makes clear. Lateral flow test positive then PCR negative means kids CAN go back to school
Clarity is emerging from the muddle, via an education source.
1) IN SCHOOL
If a pupil gets a lateral flow positive at school... they are advised not to get a PCR test... and even if they do get a PCR test which is negative they must stay at home.
But...
2) AT HOME
If a pupil gets a lateral flow positive at home... they are advised to get a PCR test... and if that PCR test is negative they can go back to school.
Why the difference? Gov argues lateral tests done in school are more trustworthy as those giving them are trained.
Seems to me Keir Starmer’s ‘no tax rises now’ position makes strategic sense.
One of Labour’s big failings in 15, 17, 19 elections was being soundly beaten on the economy.
Having a ‘why are you so pro-business’ row now only helps Starmer’s rebranding project for 2024.
Which is why you suspect Starmer’s office will be pretty relaxed with Corbyn frontbenchers criticising the stance and PM noting it’s a big departure from Labour’s 2019 manifesto.
(All giving big air time to the fact Starmer is abandoning Corbyn’s position on tax and business)
Having Tories throw the quotes from this week back at Starmer in the run-up to the next election (when Labour’s tax offering will inevitably be more progressive than the Conservatives) is the weakness in the strategy. But can worry about that in 2024.
Secrecy at all costs: Inside the Downing Street bunker preparing Britain’s lockdown exit. Longish read with @LOS_Fisher
Rishi, Gove, Hancock handed numbered paper copies of road map they couldn’t take with them amid heightened leak fears 1/ telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
Special advisers explicitly warned on recent Zoom calls with No 10 chief of staff Dan Rosenfield against Covid leaks, per multiple sources.
Some have taken a vow of silence fearing for their jobs if they discuss the road map. One: “I don’t want to be sacked”. 2/
Cabinet ministers being “kept in the dark” about the road map. So too many ministers whose briefs directly relate to countering Covid.
The heart of decision-making is ‘The Quad’ (PM, Rishi, Gove, Hancock) plus the scientists: Whitty, Vallance, sometimes JVT. 3/