Thread by @Jean__Fisch

Vaccination in 🇧🇪: More delays were announced and there is real confusion about what Belgian really ordered. So here a thread on

/ Supply and deliveries
/ Likely vaccination plan
/ Immunization plan

The result is not cheerful but a reset requires facing the harsh reality⬇️⬇️⬇️

First things first: 🇧🇪 ordered less than others for 2021

We took
- 50% of 1st Moderna Contract (2m not 4m)
- 50% of 2nd Moderna Contract (3.8 not 7.8m) of which 50% is delivered in S2 2021 (rest in 2022)
- 50% of Curevac (2.9m not 5.8m)

1/N

Let's reuse the graph for some side comments

/ 🇬🇧 invested boldly in AZ and this pays off at the moment

/ 🇩🇪 got the surplus of other EU countries (NB: there is still an element of estimation: actual could be slightly lower in the end)

/ 🇳🇱 puts more emphasis on J&J

2/N

In addition, in Q1 2021, 🇧🇪 misses 33% of its pro-rata share of Pfizer (it missed the 1st contract extension) but will get back as of Q2

So, compared to other countries, in S1, Belgium will invariably vaccinate less of its population than other EU countries

3/N

The launch of the EU campaign has been marred with issues. So far, for Q1

➡️Pfizer is on track
➡️Moderna will only delivered 10% of the contract
➡️AZ has only delivered 10% of its contract
➡️J&J already announces delays

4/N

So what are realistic deliveries to be expected in 🇧🇪 for 2021?

Given the issues, I took a conservative estimate of 70% completion of contract by year end for all except for Pfizer (100%)

This still means we will have 30% surplus of vaccines

5/N

Given this plan, 🇧🇪 will be able to vaccinate its adult population by mid-October assuming

/ 1wk between delivery and jabbing
/ No significant wastage

6/N

What about our liberties? Do we need to remain confined until October? No

The danger from the virus comes from its lethality and hospitalization risk

As everywhere, the hospitalizations in 🇧🇪 came from the older age brackets of the population

7/N

Let's assume that the 🇧🇪 vaccination campaign manages to concentrate first to 90% on the higher age groups

Then the overall hospitalization risk will have decreased by

➡️50% by end of May
➡️80% by early August

8/N

These dates are certainly indicative but will not be completely out of bound

The reality is that 🇧🇪 faces a vaccine shortage and this will delay our path to normality

The sooner we accept this, the sooner we will be able to concentrate our efforts onmaking the best of it

N/N