Covid in 🇧🇪: The situation is going in the wrong direction
⬇️⬇️⬇️
1/ The incidence rate in 🇧🇪 is not on the up in all regions
2/ The increase in incidence is not an effect from increased testing
Testing is essentially stable yet cases are increasing (cf. the red line which gives the difference between the two)
3/ Hospital admissions are now on the up in all 🇧🇪 regions
4/ Brussels continues to be on another planet in terms of hospital admissions in 🇧🇪
I doubt now that this is solely an effect of hospitals being active in Brabant and Brussels which concentrate their Covid patients in Brussels
5/ Conclusion?
➡️Pressure felt since 2 wks is taking over in 🇧🇪
➡️2 possible reasons
a) Growing % of + contagious / severe #B117 variant
b) Recent relaxations in the contact sector "tipping the balance"
➡️Whichever it is, any further relaxation becomes ever so harder for the Gov
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Vaccination in 🇧🇪: More delays were announced and there is real confusion about what Belgian really ordered. So here a thread on
/ Supply and deliveries
/ Likely vaccination plan
/ Immunization plan
The result is not cheerful but a reset requires facing the harsh reality⬇️⬇️⬇️
First things first: 🇧🇪 ordered less than others for 2021
We took
- 50% of 1st Moderna Contract (2m not 4m)
- 50% of 2nd Moderna Contract (3.8 not 7.8m) of which 50% is delivered in S2 2021 (rest in 2022)
- 50% of Curevac (2.9m not 5.8m)
1/N
Let's reuse the graph for some side comments
/ 🇬🇧 invested boldly in AZ and this pays off at the moment
/ 🇩🇪 got the surplus of other EU countries (NB: there is still an element of estimation: actual could be slightly lower in the end)