The Biden administration is going back into a deeply-flawed nuclear deal that gives the regime in Iran patient pathways to atomic weapons and flows tens of billions of dollars into the coffers of the IRGC.

Don’t lose the thread in the tic-toc of the daily hurly burly.
The strategy will be to negotiate like John Kerry but sound like Tom Cotton (the “Tom and Kerry” strategy) to try and break the Republican consensus & neutralize our MidEast allies.

This is a much more sophisticated group than 2015 in terms of political strategy & messaging.
The “longer, stronger, broader” deal is the way to achieve this political objective. It’s only possible if the Biden administration gives up everything. It’s more likely, after returning to JCPOA, Iran issue goes on the back-burner — and regime enjoys the sunsets.
Here @FDD @StrickerNonpro and Behnam Ben Taleblu with graphics by @ackermandesign show the key JCPOA sunsets. No ban on weapons-grade enrichment after 2030 (!). fdd.org/analysis/2021/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mark Dubowitz

Mark Dubowitz Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @mdubowitz

6 Dec 20
Thread. Nuclear versus Economic Snapbacks: How nuclear extortion beats economic pressure every time when a US president fears Iranian nuclear escalation.
1. We warned in 2015 that Iran has a nuclear snapback, a threat of nuke blackmail that would block an American economic snapback, unless a US president refused to be extorted and was prepared to go it alone.
2. We also argued in 2015 that the US economic snapback was powerful enough that you didn’t need EU or other multilateral support. Companies would choose America over Iran when put to a stark choice — and OFAC was prepared to vigorously enforce US sanctions.
Read 12 tweets
5 Dec 20
I have my disagreements with this piece by ⁦@DanielBShapiro⁩ but there’s common sense in many of his recommendations. The U.S. & Israel share common goals; the important differences will be tactical over the question of when & how to wield leverage. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
Dan perhaps understandably avoids the real tactical and profound disagreements between the Biden and Netanyahu teams of how and when to use leverage.
The Biden folks believe they can offer major preemptive concessions to encourage Iran back into the JCPOA and then negotiate a follow on agreement that addresses the sunsets and other nuclear and non-nuclear problems.
Read 10 tweets
28 Nov 20
“For two decades, Fakhrizadeh was the driving force behind what American and Israeli officials describe as Iran’s secretive nuke weapons program.

His **work continued** after Iran’s push to develop a bomb was formally disbanded in 2003... nytimes.com/2020/11/27/wor…
... according to American intelligence assessments and Iranian nuclear documents stolen by Israel nearly three years ago.”
For all those falsely claiming that he was a scientist simply in charge of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, facts are stubborn things.
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep 20
In 2018, I co-authored this ⁦@WSJopinion⁩ piece with my @FDD colleague ⁦@ordefk⁩ about the despicable use by Hezbollah and Hamas of human shields.

We were gratified that Congress unanimously passed & president signed human shields law. wsj.com/articles/get-s…
Almost two years have passed & @USTreasury has issued no designations under the law.

Today, @IsraeliPM revealed Hezbollah building & storing precision guided missiles under apartment buildings.

Terror group using Lebanese civilians as human shields.

That’s a war crime.
Even the UN General Assembly passed a resolution declaring the use of human shields to be a war crime.
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep 20
Israeli PM just revealed Hezbollah missile depot next to gas company near Beirut airport, saying depot could be cause of catastrophic explosion similar to Beirut port.

Long past time to sanction Hezbollah for war crimes under human shields law passed 535-0 & signed in Dec 2018.
Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile manufacturing site is located under four seven-story apartment buildings in Beirut that are home to 70 families.

Hezbollah should be designated by @USTreasury for war crimes.
Multiple Hezbollah precision-guided missile manufacturing sites in civilian areas in Beirut.

Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields in violation of U.S. law and international norms.

Even UNGA passed a resolution condemning use of human shields.
Read 8 tweets
29 Sep 20
Quoted: “Protections already exist for humanitarian trade,” but this “has a major chilling effect on any financial entities considering doing business with Iran.

This action would turn Iran’s financial sector radioactive.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Note: humanitarian transactions take place through the central bank of Iran thanks to General License No. 8 and not through these 14-16 banks. OFAC also gives comfort letters to foreign banks and a Swiss channel exists to facilitate this trade: sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/ofac-issues-ne…
The blacklisting of the financial sector is a logical extension of the FinCEN 311 finding and the reimposition of countermeasures by FATF. The entire financial sector supports regime’s illicit activities.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!