The Biden administration is going back into a deeply-flawed nuclear deal that gives the regime in Iran patient pathways to atomic weapons and flows tens of billions of dollars into the coffers of the IRGC.
Don’t lose the thread in the tic-toc of the daily hurly burly.
The strategy will be to negotiate like John Kerry but sound like Tom Cotton (the “Tom and Kerry” strategy) to try and break the Republican consensus & neutralize our MidEast allies.
This is a much more sophisticated group than 2015 in terms of political strategy & messaging.
The “longer, stronger, broader” deal is the way to achieve this political objective. It’s only possible if the Biden administration gives up everything. It’s more likely, after returning to JCPOA, Iran issue goes on the back-burner — and regime enjoys the sunsets.
Thread. Nuclear versus Economic Snapbacks: How nuclear extortion beats economic pressure every time when a US president fears Iranian nuclear escalation.
1. We warned in 2015 that Iran has a nuclear snapback, a threat of nuke blackmail that would block an American economic snapback, unless a US president refused to be extorted and was prepared to go it alone.
2. We also argued in 2015 that the US economic snapback was powerful enough that you didn’t need EU or other multilateral support. Companies would choose America over Iran when put to a stark choice — and OFAC was prepared to vigorously enforce US sanctions.
I have my disagreements with this piece by @DanielBShapiro but there’s common sense in many of his recommendations. The U.S. & Israel share common goals; the important differences will be tactical over the question of when & how to wield leverage. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
Dan perhaps understandably avoids the real tactical and profound disagreements between the Biden and Netanyahu teams of how and when to use leverage.
The Biden folks believe they can offer major preemptive concessions to encourage Iran back into the JCPOA and then negotiate a follow on agreement that addresses the sunsets and other nuclear and non-nuclear problems.
Israeli PM just revealed Hezbollah missile depot next to gas company near Beirut airport, saying depot could be cause of catastrophic explosion similar to Beirut port.
Long past time to sanction Hezbollah for war crimes under human shields law passed 535-0 & signed in Dec 2018.
Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile manufacturing site is located under four seven-story apartment buildings in Beirut that are home to 70 families.
Hezbollah should be designated by @USTreasury for war crimes.
Multiple Hezbollah precision-guided missile manufacturing sites in civilian areas in Beirut.
Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields in violation of U.S. law and international norms.
Even UNGA passed a resolution condemning use of human shields.
Quoted: “Protections already exist for humanitarian trade,” but this “has a major chilling effect on any financial entities considering doing business with Iran.
Note: humanitarian transactions take place through the central bank of Iran thanks to General License No. 8 and not through these 14-16 banks. OFAC also gives comfort letters to foreign banks and a Swiss channel exists to facilitate this trade: sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/ofac-issues-ne…
The blacklisting of the financial sector is a logical extension of the FinCEN 311 finding and the reimposition of countermeasures by FATF. The entire financial sector supports regime’s illicit activities.