Un-masking Children:
Thread 1 of 4: The Role of Children in COVID-19 Transmission
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Children are not major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. This, the most authoritative study on transmission found not one incident of child-to-adult transmission.
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
Thread 1 of 4: The Role of Children in COVID-19 Transmission
1/
Children are not major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. This, the most authoritative study on transmission found not one incident of child-to-adult transmission.
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
2/
The study was a population-representative survey, after identifying COVID positive people, they used genome sequencing and contact tracing to identify how the disease spread through the community. This level of rigor is unique.
The study was a population-representative survey, after identifying COVID positive people, they used genome sequencing and contact tracing to identify how the disease spread through the community. This level of rigor is unique.
3/
Other studies that attempt to claim significant child-to-adult transmission of COVID have not performed this analysis. The genome-sequencing is what allowed them to say definitively that none of the cases was spread from a child to an adult.
Other studies that attempt to claim significant child-to-adult transmission of COVID have not performed this analysis. The genome-sequencing is what allowed them to say definitively that none of the cases was spread from a child to an adult.
4/
Another study from Korea of 107 pediatric cases and 248 household contacts found not one instance of a child infecting an adult. The one example of a child infecting anyone was a 16-YO child infecting a 14-year-old sibling—both parents were negative.
adc.bmj.com/content/early/…
Another study from Korea of 107 pediatric cases and 248 household contacts found not one instance of a child infecting an adult. The one example of a child infecting anyone was a 16-YO child infecting a 14-year-old sibling—both parents were negative.
adc.bmj.com/content/early/…
5/
This study is interesting as well, because the median age of the infected children is quite high. At 15, these would be children we would expect to more readily pass on the disease.
This study is interesting as well, because the median age of the infected children is quite high. At 15, these would be children we would expect to more readily pass on the disease.
5/
Studies that purport to show higher rates of child-to-adult transmission, rely either on faulty end-points (e.g. do not look at whether contacts were actually infected by a child) or flawed methodologies.
Studies that purport to show higher rates of child-to-adult transmission, rely either on faulty end-points (e.g. do not look at whether contacts were actually infected by a child) or flawed methodologies.
6/
Even if children were a major driver of transmission of COVID-19 it would show our failure as a society to shirk our duty to educate them and foster their healthy development.
Even if children were a major driver of transmission of COVID-19 it would show our failure as a society to shirk our duty to educate them and foster their healthy development.
7/
That they unequivocally are not, and we have still followed this course transforms this from failure to depravity.
That this depraved course was orchestrated by our public “health” officials shows this group to be malignant, if not malevolent.
That they unequivocally are not, and we have still followed this course transforms this from failure to depravity.
That this depraved course was orchestrated by our public “health” officials shows this group to be malignant, if not malevolent.
6/
Studies that purport to show higher rates of child-to-adult transmission, rely either on faulty end-points (e.g. do not look at whether contacts were actually infected by a child) or flawed methodologies.
Studies that purport to show higher rates of child-to-adult transmission, rely either on faulty end-points (e.g. do not look at whether contacts were actually infected by a child) or flawed methodologies.
7/
Even if children were a major driver of transmission of COVID-19 it would show our failure as a society to shirk our duty to educate them and foster their healthy development.
Even if children were a major driver of transmission of COVID-19 it would show our failure as a society to shirk our duty to educate them and foster their healthy development.
8/
That they unequivocally are not, and we have still followed this course transforms this from failure to depravity.
That this depraved course was orchestrated by our public “health” officials shows this group to be malignant, if not malevolent.
That they unequivocally are not, and we have still followed this course transforms this from failure to depravity.
That this depraved course was orchestrated by our public “health” officials shows this group to be malignant, if not malevolent.
9/
They don't spread it, they're not at risk, so why do we mask them? And does it make a difference? Let's see.
thesmileproject.global/post/un-maskin…
They don't spread it, they're not at risk, so why do we mask them? And does it make a difference? Let's see.
thesmileproject.global/post/un-maskin…
5/
Results from 14 randomized controlled trials do not, and have not, supported universal masking as an effective means of disrupting transmission of respiratory viruses.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
Results from 14 randomized controlled trials do not, and have not, supported universal masking as an effective means of disrupting transmission of respiratory viruses.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
6/
In early April, a data-free scientific consensus for masking was arrived at--in direct contradiction to the large body of extant scientific evidence, and with no new evidence to support it.
In early April, a data-free scientific consensus for masking was arrived at--in direct contradiction to the large body of extant scientific evidence, and with no new evidence to support it.
7/
On April 3rd, Dr. Fauci recommended that all Americans should start wearing masks (after saying on March 8th, that they should not).
On April 3rd, Dr. Fauci recommended that all Americans should start wearing masks (after saying on March 8th, that they should not).
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1367585792676294657
8/
He has since testified before congress saying that he did not recommend wearing masks earlier, because we needed to preserve them for healthcare workers
He has since testified before congress saying that he did not recommend wearing masks earlier, because we needed to preserve them for healthcare workers
9/
This is clearly untrue, as he recommended people start wearing masks on April 3rd, just as the spring surge was beginning, and medical mask scarcity was at its highest.
This is clearly untrue, as he recommended people start wearing masks on April 3rd, just as the spring surge was beginning, and medical mask scarcity was at its highest.
10/
Once this data-contradictory consensus was arrived at, the scientific community began churning out studies to try and “prove” what had been disproved for more than a century.
Once this data-contradictory consensus was arrived at, the scientific community began churning out studies to try and “prove” what had been disproved for more than a century.
11/
The studies reflect those strong biases, and many (like this one) have been retracted as a result—others ought to be, but have not. In fact, the benefit was so “decided” that few, if any of these studies, have an actual non-masked control group.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The studies reflect those strong biases, and many (like this one) have been retracted as a result—others ought to be, but have not. In fact, the benefit was so “decided” that few, if any of these studies, have an actual non-masked control group.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/
The result is that, particularly when it comes to schooling, nearly all of the scientific literature focuses not on WHETHER masks are actually useful in stemming the spread within schools, but on HOW to get children to accept masks.
The result is that, particularly when it comes to schooling, nearly all of the scientific literature focuses not on WHETHER masks are actually useful in stemming the spread within schools, but on HOW to get children to accept masks.
13/
Sweden offers a unique exception. Sweden did not close schools during their spring or fall wave. Nor did they require that children or teachers wear masks. The results of a country–wide analysis were published on 2/18/21.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Sweden offers a unique exception. Sweden did not close schools during their spring or fall wave. Nor did they require that children or teachers wear masks. The results of a country–wide analysis were published on 2/18/21.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
14/
There were two key findings that emerged from the study. The first was that the deaths in Sweden’s school children did not increase in the four months of the study period relative to the prior four-month period, despite children being in school, un-masked, living their lives.
There were two key findings that emerged from the study. The first was that the deaths in Sweden’s school children did not increase in the four months of the study period relative to the prior four-month period, despite children being in school, un-masked, living their lives.
16/
They made a sex- and age-adjusted comparison, showing that the relative risk to teachers versus other professions was, in the case of pre-school teachers, 1.1, and for other teachers, 0.43—i.e. roughly the same, & less than half.
They made a sex- and age-adjusted comparison, showing that the relative risk to teachers versus other professions was, in the case of pre-school teachers, 1.1, and for other teachers, 0.43—i.e. roughly the same, & less than half.
17/
This is in-line with other findings that have recently started to emerge showing that spending time with children not only doesn’t put adults at greater risk, but is actually protective.
This is in-line with other findings that have recently started to emerge showing that spending time with children not only doesn’t put adults at greater risk, but is actually protective.
18/
A U.K. study of 12 million+ adults, shows that while people who lived with children were at no higher risk of contracting COVID-19, for those under 65, they were 25% less likely to die. For those over 65, there was no difference in the outcomes.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
A U.K. study of 12 million+ adults, shows that while people who lived with children were at no higher risk of contracting COVID-19, for those under 65, they were 25% less likely to die. For those over 65, there was no difference in the outcomes.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
19/
The mechanism for this protection is expected to be via cross-reactivity from exposure to prior coronaviruses introduced into the home by children (also the prevailing hypothesis on why Asian countries, where coronaviruses originate, were not hit hard by COVID-19).
The mechanism for this protection is expected to be via cross-reactivity from exposure to prior coronaviruses introduced into the home by children (also the prevailing hypothesis on why Asian countries, where coronaviruses originate, were not hit hard by COVID-19).
20/
It is worth noting here, that this isn’t b/c the UK was less hard hit than the U.S.. The U.K., despite multiple extended, national, police-enforced lockdowns has a higher COVID death rate than the U.S.
It is worth noting here, that this isn’t b/c the UK was less hard hit than the U.S.. The U.K., despite multiple extended, national, police-enforced lockdowns has a higher COVID death rate than the U.S.
21/
Several recent studies have shown that when in-school transmission does occur, teachers (who are masked) are central to those transmission networks.
Several recent studies have shown that when in-school transmission does occur, teachers (who are masked) are central to those transmission networks.
22/
The CDC recently investigated nine clusters across 6 school masked districts in Cobb County, Georgia. Of those 9 clusters, 8 involved a teacher. In the one cluster where a student was the sole index case, the student only infected other students.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
The CDC recently investigated nine clusters across 6 school masked districts in Cobb County, Georgia. Of those 9 clusters, 8 involved a teacher. In the one cluster where a student was the sole index case, the student only infected other students.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
23/
In half of the other 8 clusters, the teacher was indisputably the index case. In the other four clusters, researchers were unable to determine whether the student or the teacher was the index case.
In half of the other 8 clusters, the teacher was indisputably the index case. In the other four clusters, researchers were unable to determine whether the student or the teacher was the index case.
24/
Of further note, all of the children were masked all day, except during lunch, which was taken in the classroom. Investigators reported that both reported and observed mask compliance were high.
Of further note, all of the children were masked all day, except during lunch, which was taken in the classroom. Investigators reported that both reported and observed mask compliance were high.
25/
Though in five of the clusters, interviews indicated that mask use was at times sub-optimal. In the only cluster where a child was the sole index case, mask compliance was reported to be high and correct, even in interviews.
Though in five of the clusters, interviews indicated that mask use was at times sub-optimal. In the only cluster where a child was the sole index case, mask compliance was reported to be high and correct, even in interviews.
26/
Of note, in the next study we will examine, in Germany, while children over 10 were required to wear masks while out and about “on-campus,” no children of any age were required to wear masks in the class room. Secondary infection rates were ¼ less in this un-masked example
Of note, in the next study we will examine, in Germany, while children over 10 were required to wear masks while out and about “on-campus,” no children of any age were required to wear masks in the class room. Secondary infection rates were ¼ less in this un-masked example
27/
Another recently released study examined in-school transmission dynamics in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, with 1492 schools, and student population of 406,000 school age children, and 144,000 children under 6 in day care centers.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Another recently released study examined in-school transmission dynamics in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, with 1492 schools, and student population of 406,000 school age children, and 144,000 children under 6 in day care centers.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
28/
The study was from 8/17-12/16, during a period of exponential case growth. During that time, students were in school in-person, 5-days a week. Under 10, neither masks nor physical distancing was required. Over 10, masks were recommended on campus, but not in classrooms.
The study was from 8/17-12/16, during a period of exponential case growth. During that time, students were in school in-person, 5-days a week. Under 10, neither masks nor physical distancing was required. Over 10, masks were recommended on campus, but not in classrooms.
29/
Transmission from teachers was 4x higher than from students. When a teacher caught COVID, they were 14x more likely to transmit it to another teacher, than a student who contracted COVID would be.
Transmission from teachers was 4x higher than from students. When a teacher caught COVID, they were 14x more likely to transmit it to another teacher, than a student who contracted COVID would be.
30/
As infections increased, masking recommendations changed. On November 2nd, children over 10 were also recommended to wear masks in the classroom. Cases still increased, likely the curve simply reflects the seasonal arc of the disease.
As infections increased, masking recommendations changed. On November 2nd, children over 10 were also recommended to wear masks in the classroom. Cases still increased, likely the curve simply reflects the seasonal arc of the disease.
31/
Edweek notes than 233 teachers have died during the pandemic—though this include large numbers of teachers who died during the periods when schools were not in session or fully remote districts, suggesting community rather than child transmission.
edweek.org/teaching-learn…
Edweek notes than 233 teachers have died during the pandemic—though this include large numbers of teachers who died during the periods when schools were not in session or fully remote districts, suggesting community rather than child transmission.
edweek.org/teaching-learn…
32/
Taking these numbers, we can back into an estimate of the lethality of COVID for teachers relative to others. As of 12/31/20, the CDC estimated that there had been roughly 83 million cases—roughly ¼ of the U.S. population—probably 1/3 now.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Taking these numbers, we can back into an estimate of the lethality of COVID for teachers relative to others. As of 12/31/20, the CDC estimated that there had been roughly 83 million cases—roughly ¼ of the U.S. population—probably 1/3 now.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
33/
There are roughly 3.6 million teachers in the U.S.. If we assume that teachers have been infected at roughly the same rate as others in the community that would suggest that 1.2 million teachers had been infected.
There are roughly 3.6 million teachers in the U.S.. If we assume that teachers have been infected at roughly the same rate as others in the community that would suggest that 1.2 million teachers had been infected.
34/
With 230 deaths, that is equal to an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.02%. This IFR is identical to the IFR observed for flu in this age group in the 2017-2018 flu season.
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
With 230 deaths, that is equal to an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 0.02%. This IFR is identical to the IFR observed for flu in this age group in the 2017-2018 flu season.
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
35/
It is slightly lower than the national estimate for COVID deaths for 18-49 year olds of 0.03%. Many of the teachers who died fall into older age brackets, so we would actually expect this number to be higher, not lower.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
It is slightly lower than the national estimate for COVID deaths for 18-49 year olds of 0.03%. Many of the teachers who died fall into older age brackets, so we would actually expect this number to be higher, not lower.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
36/
In an average flu year, roughly 10% of the 18-49 population has symptomatic flu. Of those, 0.02% die. If we assume that teachers are just as likely to be exposed to flu, this would mean that on average 360,000 would contract the flu, and 73 would die
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
In an average flu year, roughly 10% of the 18-49 population has symptomatic flu. Of those, 0.02% die. If we assume that teachers are just as likely to be exposed to flu, this would mean that on average 360,000 would contract the flu, and 73 would die
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
37/
73, is clearly lower than 230 COVID deaths. But there are 2 caveats. We have now observed two COVID seasons now, not one. For two flu seasons, we would expect 146 deaths—we’ve seen 230, including many in the 50+ cohort whose risk of death from flu is also much higher.
73, is clearly lower than 230 COVID deaths. But there are 2 caveats. We have now observed two COVID seasons now, not one. For two flu seasons, we would expect 146 deaths—we’ve seen 230, including many in the 50+ cohort whose risk of death from flu is also much higher.
38/
Further, COVID is a novel disease. Thus, more people are expected to contract the disease than flu. As of now, as noted, roughly 1/3 (~33%) of the country has contracted the disease, more than 3x the 10% we would expect in this age group in a typical flu season.
Further, COVID is a novel disease. Thus, more people are expected to contract the disease than flu. As of now, as noted, roughly 1/3 (~33%) of the country has contracted the disease, more than 3x the 10% we would expect in this age group in a typical flu season.
39/
That cases are now dropping like a rock at this level (roughly 33%) was actually what was expected by many, more sober epidemiologists—who got less TV time than more prominent ones.
That cases are now dropping like a rock at this level (roughly 33%) was actually what was expected by many, more sober epidemiologists—who got less TV time than more prominent ones.
40/
The totality of these studies shows the following:
1. Children are not a driver of transmission in schools (or anywhere).
2. Masking children in schools does not appear to impact transmission within schools—it is low regardless of whether children are masked are not.
The totality of these studies shows the following:
1. Children are not a driver of transmission in schools (or anywhere).
2. Masking children in schools does not appear to impact transmission within schools—it is low regardless of whether children are masked are not.
41/
3. Teachers and others who spend significant amounts of time with children appear to be at reduced risk of death from COVID, due to prior immunity conferred from their time with children.
3. Teachers and others who spend significant amounts of time with children appear to be at reduced risk of death from COVID, due to prior immunity conferred from their time with children.
42/
4. By the numbers, teachers are not dying at higher rates than other professions—in fact, they appear to be dying at lower levels, levels which are exactly in-line with their relative risk for flu.
4. By the numbers, teachers are not dying at higher rates than other professions—in fact, they appear to be dying at lower levels, levels which are exactly in-line with their relative risk for flu.
43/
5. Teacher acquisition of infections appears to be independent of their being in school, given that many, if not a majority of teacher deaths resulted when schools were not in session, & in-school to be adult-driven.
5. Teacher acquisition of infections appears to be independent of their being in school, given that many, if not a majority of teacher deaths resulted when schools were not in session, & in-school to be adult-driven.
44/
It is a wonderful thing that children in schools do not appear to be a major driver of transmission or mortality in or outside of schools. However, even if they were, we would still be obligated to teach our children in-person.
It is a wonderful thing that children in schools do not appear to be a major driver of transmission or mortality in or outside of schools. However, even if they were, we would still be obligated to teach our children in-person.
45/
Children ARE major sources of transmission for the flu, and the flu is significantly more deadly to them, and roughly equally deadly to their teachers, and they ARE major drivers of flu transmission to their elders—even with flu vaccines.
Children ARE major sources of transmission for the flu, and the flu is significantly more deadly to them, and roughly equally deadly to their teachers, and they ARE major drivers of flu transmission to their elders—even with flu vaccines.
46/
Yet for time immemorial, we have sent kids to school, and grandparents have gloried in their ability to spend time with their grandchildren--un-masked. This should not change, should not have changed for COVID, and must stop NOW.
Yet for time immemorial, we have sent kids to school, and grandparents have gloried in their ability to spend time with their grandchildren--un-masked. This should not change, should not have changed for COVID, and must stop NOW.
45/
These facts demonstrate that many of the problems we have had coming to terms with COVID are related to our inability to put the risk into perspective, looking at relative, rather than absolute risk (next thread). The blog version of this post is here:thesmileproject.global/post/un-maskin…
These facts demonstrate that many of the problems we have had coming to terms with COVID are related to our inability to put the risk into perspective, looking at relative, rather than absolute risk (next thread). The blog version of this post is here:thesmileproject.global/post/un-maskin…
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