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Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

11 Mar

ANTIFRAGILITY AND FATIGUE

The antifragile benefits from variation.

However, too big of a variation, and the antifragile breaks.
Similarly, too much small damage too often, and the antifragile breaks too.

The latter is called "fatigue".

Let's see how it works.

1/N

@nntaleb

2/ This thread assumes you've read @nntaleb's Antifragile.

Building on it, here is a simplified visualization of how the antifragile reacts to stressors.

3/ And this is a visualization of what happens over time to the antifragile when it is hit by a stressor that causes sparse damage

The antifragile becomes stronger → it becomes both less susceptible to sparse damage and to functional damage (both thresholds move right).

Read 22 tweets

Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

11 Mar

ERGODICITY AND THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS

An example of tragedy of the commons. A city has access to a small forest.

If you are a citizen, self-interest would dictate that you cut a tree to get some wood to heat your house. But if everyone does, the wood disappears.

1/N

https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/1367555119479480323?s=20

2/ The tweet below recently made me notice that this kind of problems can be formulated in terms of #ergodicity.

Let's see how and why it matters.

https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/1367555119479480323?s=20

3/ One of the definitions of ergodicity is "when the outcome of a person performing an action n times coincides to the outcome of n people performing the action once."

Here is how it applies to the tragedy of the commons:

Read 14 tweets

Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

8 Mar

ON IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR

There are three main reasons for irrational behavior.

Thread, 1/11

The first one is an excessively-narrow definition of irrationality.

Example: playing a boardgame, your friend makes a move which is suboptimal to victory. Is he being irrational?

Only if winning at the game is all that matters. But maybe he's optimizing for friendship.

2/11

Another example: working overtime might get you ahead at work but also set you back in personal life.

In general, it's never rational to maximize performance at a given task. It's rational to maximize one's performance across all tasks. And sometimes, the two are at odds.

3/11

Read 11 tweets

Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

7 Mar

CONSULTING AND FRAGILIZATION

Too often, consulting engagements end up making the client more fragile.

Why? What can clients AND consultants do differently?

(thread, 1/N)

2/ One possible cause is, of course, psychopathic consultants & self-centered management. But there's a lot that can go wrong even when both parties are well-meaning.

Here are 3 problems that must be addressed to avoid consulting disasters, even assuming competence & good faith.

3/ I often say, "centralization is only efficient to the central observer"

Similarly, consulting is often only effective to the central observer

If it only considers what matters to the central observer, it will only do good relative to what's considered by the central observer

Read 17 tweets

Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

3 Mar

I've been using for a few months an app that sends me daily digests of information *curated by myself*.

It just got better: I can now receive a digests of tweets liked by people I pick. Curation 2.0

(Thread of how it works, 1/N)

2/ I use it to automate repetitive "fetching information" tasks.
It has three advantages:
– I avoid having to manually open multiple websites or apps
– It's fast
– It prevents me from wasting time "mindlessly scrolling": it's an email, and once it finished, I can move on.

3/ Here is the website: mailbrew.com/?aff=DellAnnaL…
(affiliate link, but I've been a paying user for months, and I just love the product for how much time it saves me).

At the beginning I used it "just" to receive a daily email with the top tweets from a few Twitter lists.

Read 9 tweets

Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

1 Mar

IS THE AUTISM SPECTRUM TWO-TAILED?

The autism spectrum is usually described as single-tailed, as in the picture below.

But what if there were a tail also on the left side?

Thread, 1/N

2/ I believe that the actual spectrum of autism-related conditions is actually closer to this chart.

What lies on the left side?

3/ First, we must understand what's the horizontal axis.

(Disclaimer: I'm no medical professional and this is just a hypothesis – though one worth exploring, IMHO.)

Read 15 tweets

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