There are three main reasons for irrational behavior.
Thread, 1/11
The first one is an excessively-narrow definition of irrationality.
Example: playing a boardgame, your friend makes a move which is suboptimal to victory. Is he being irrational?
Only if winning at the game is all that matters. But maybe he's optimizing for friendship.
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Another example: working overtime might get you ahead at work but also set you back in personal life.
In general, it's never rational to maximize performance at a given task. It's rational to maximize one's performance across all tasks. And sometimes, the two are at odds.
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Hence the importance of always using a very broad definition of rationality. Such as survival.
Designing a study with a narrow definition of survival tells us more about the irrationality of those designing it than about the rationality of its participants.
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The second cause for irrational behavior is an artificial environment.
We perceive the environment through senses that evolved to be fit for our ancestors' environment, not ours
We take decisions with a brain that evolved to be fit for our ancestors' environment, not ours
5/11
When our environment is hacked to take advantage of our tendencies, of course we might end up taking irrational decisions.
Such as eating that sugary donough just because in our ancestors' environment sugar brought survival.
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The third cause for irrational behavior is addiction. Addiction and similar "momentum-building" mechanisms such as moods are rational (see example below based on Rutledge, Dolan, and Niv 2016).
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Ideally, we wouldn't get addicted to sugar & other things which are toxic in large doses.
But we evolved such propensities for a reason. Someone that doesn't crave sugar might put less energy into foraging fruits, for example, and develop malnutrition in some environments.
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There is a difference between whether a behavior is irrational and whether the tendency to generate such behavior is irrational.
In the example of craving for sugar, I'm irrational if I eat a sugary donut but my genes are not irrational for making me prone to crave sugar.
Too often, consulting engagements end up making the client more fragile.
Why? What can clients AND consultants do differently?
(thread, 1/N)
2/ One possible cause is, of course, psychopathic consultants & self-centered management. But there's a lot that can go wrong even when both parties are well-meaning.
Here are 3 problems that must be addressed to avoid consulting disasters, even assuming competence & good faith.
3/ I often say, "centralization is only efficient to the central observer"
Similarly, consulting is often only effective to the central observer
If it only considers what matters to the central observer, it will only do good relative to what's considered by the central observer
I've been using for a few months an app that sends me daily digests of information *curated by myself*.
It just got better: I can now receive a digests of tweets liked by people I pick. Curation 2.0
(Thread of how it works, 1/N)
2/ I use it to automate repetitive "fetching information" tasks.
It has three advantages:
– I avoid having to manually open multiple websites or apps
– It's fast
– It prevents me from wasting time "mindlessly scrolling": it's an email, and once it finished, I can move on.
3/ Here is the website: mailbrew.com/?aff=DellAnnaL…
(affiliate link, but I've been a paying user for months, and I just love the product for how much time it saves me).
At the beginning I used it "just" to receive a daily email with the top tweets from a few Twitter lists.
2/ First of all, this is a Roam Book (rBook). It is a new format that integrates with your notes, allows for non-linear exploration of its contents, and more. You can read more about it on roam-books.com
A quick overview of #ergodicity, using plain language and down-to-earth examples.
A talk on Saturday the 13th of March.
Attendance is free but registration is mandatory: gum.co/ergodicitytalk
The idea is to make the concept as accessible at possible, so I won’t use any maths beyond 3rd grade, and will focus on examples not from investing but from everyone’s life.
Attendance is FREE even though it’s a Gumroad link.
It’s a Gumroad link because I offer a bundle “talk + book”, but if you want to just hear me the talk, you can register for free. I’m experimenting to see if this format is sustainable.
TROLLEY PROBLEMS We spend too much time on deciding which way to pull the lever, and not nearly enough time on slowing trolleys down and asking ourselves "why are there people bound to the tracks"?
Thread with examples, 1/N
2/ One example: should Trump be banned? Was the election stolen?
These are lever questions.
The trolley question is: how come fraud and/or "changing the rules at the last minute" are plausible?
3/ It's important to focus on trolley questions, because pulling a lever doesn't stop the trolley – it will keep being a problem in the future.