SNOWBULL PERSPECTIVE
It is valuable to consider and compare alternate views of the future
Here are some perspectives from Snowbull Capital on their view of the "EV market" which includes BEVs, ICE PHEVs, ride-hailing
1. Global Passenger EV Sales
- 40 million units for 2031
It is valuable to consider and compare alternate views of the future
Here are some perspectives from Snowbull Capital on their view of the "EV market" which includes BEVs, ICE PHEVs, ride-hailing
1. Global Passenger EV Sales
- 40 million units for 2031
Our own view starts with an expected 25 million units from Tesla in 2031
- 20% Global Market Share would give the BEV industry 125 million units
- if Snowbull is right about lower industry volume then Tesla's Market Share would be 63%
A simple consequence of Slow Competitors
- 20% Global Market Share would give the BEV industry 125 million units
- if Snowbull is right about lower industry volume then Tesla's Market Share would be 63%
A simple consequence of Slow Competitors
2. Global Passenger EV Sales by Region
- these numbers imply a significant shrinkage of the global and regional automobile industry
- these numbers imply a significant shrinkage of the global and regional automobile industry
This chart provides a useful reference point for regional sales historically
And we expect the overall volume of demand to grow by over 2.3x between 2017 and 2040
- but there will be big differences in that growth by region
Snowbull's numbers do not reach past levels
And we expect the overall volume of demand to grow by over 2.3x between 2017 and 2040
- but there will be big differences in that growth by region
Snowbull's numbers do not reach past levels
3. Tesla Global Passenger EV Market Share
- Snowbull's market definition is said to include BEVs, ICE PHEVs, ride-hailing
- in which case it overstates the 2018, 2019, 2020 numbers
- Snowbull's market definition is said to include BEVs, ICE PHEVs, ride-hailing
- in which case it overstates the 2018, 2019, 2020 numbers
Our Global Market Share tracking is for pure BEVs only
4. Tesla Sales By Model
- there appears to be an assumption here that Tesla will cease developing any new products
- which appears to be a little inconsistent for a company that has clearly said it intends to deliver 20 million units in 2030
- there appears to be an assumption here that Tesla will cease developing any new products
- which appears to be a little inconsistent for a company that has clearly said it intends to deliver 20 million units in 2030
5. Tesla Sales By Region
- the peak numbers seem low for the three main regions just based on currently planned production locations
- the cause of the projected volume declines during the 2030s is unknown
- the peak numbers seem low for the three main regions just based on currently planned production locations
- the cause of the projected volume declines during the 2030s is unknown
6. Tesla Passenger EV Sales by Region
- the total number in 2031 is about 6.9 million vehicles
- Tesla has clearly stated its intention to deliver 20 million vehicles, or nearly 3x more
The reason for the difference from management guidance is unclear
- the total number in 2031 is about 6.9 million vehicles
- Tesla has clearly stated its intention to deliver 20 million vehicles, or nearly 3x more
The reason for the difference from management guidance is unclear
Delivery of only ~600 million BEVs by 2040 in line with Snowbull's forecasts would substantially delay the conversion of the Global Vehicle Fleet from ICEVs to BEVs compared to the ~2,200 million BEVs shown here
- and significantly delay the improvement of global CO2 emissions
- and significantly delay the improvement of global CO2 emissions
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