JPR007 Profile picture
16 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
GLOBAL VEHICLE SALES 2020 - PRELIMINARY

We do not yet have a final total for Global Vehicle Sales in 2020, but preliminary indictions are that 77.1 million vehicles were sold of which 2.1 million or 2.7% were pure BEVs

The number of ICE vehicles sold is estimated at 75 million
This means that ICE sales came in -34 million units below trend line growth of Natural Demand, twice as deep as the -17 million units contraction seen in 2019
This also means that ICE sales are now -20.9 million vehicles or -21.8% down from their 2017 peak

- they are also -13.1 million vehicles down from the 2019 level

- and they are -5.0 million units below our own original view of 80 million ICEVs for 2020
BEV Car Sales in 2020 were up significantly over 2019, but are not yet at levels big enough to offset the shrinkage in ICEV sales
And the worst is still ahead

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More from @jpr007

18 Mar
On 17 February 2021 Tesla cut prices for Model 3 in Japan, preceding the start of the export of the model from Giga Shanghai

The starting price of Model 3 Standard Range Plus has been reduced by $7,800 to $40,500 ¥4.29 million from $48,300 ¥5.11 million
tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmania…
Model 3 Long Range dropped by $14,700 to $47,200 ¥4.99 million

Model 3 Performance price remained at $67,800 ¥7.17 million

The almost 25% price decrease of Model 3 by is a consequence of Giga Shanghai beginning production of right-hand drive vehicles for markets including Japan
Just two weeks after the price drop it seems like a lot of Japanese have turned their eyes to Tesla's electric vehicles

The delivery time for cars has doubled :

- from 6-8 weeks before the price reduction

- to 12-16 weeks now
Read 4 tweets
18 Mar
EU PLANS TOUGHER ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS FOR PLUG-IN HYBRIDS

Car companies are using plug-in hybrids to improve their carbon footprint

Studies show, however, that more cars are driven with internal combustion engines than assumed
tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/nic…
By the end of February, the manufacturers had to report the CO2 values of their new car fleets in 2020 to the EU Commission

It will probably be autumn before the EU authority has checked the data and published the values
However, it seems that the industry will get off lightly once again

This time only Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover are likely to fail the hurdle, which is an average of 95 grams of emissions per kilometre driven
Read 21 tweets
18 Mar
VOLKSWAGEN FOLLOWS TESLA'S PLAYBOOK

"It’s a mirror image to what Tesla has done, and it’s working"

“It’s a carbon copy strategy, and the whole reason is to try and get investors to pay for the electric transition"

- Matthias Schmidt
politico.eu/article/volksw…
VW's share price is up more than +17% over the last week and nearing heights that were only last seen before the 2015 Dieselgate emissions scandal
"Our goal is to secure a pole position,” VW’s CEO Herbert Diess said of his electromobility plan during Monday's Power Day — an event marketed and produced to ape a Tesla or Apple product launch
Read 36 tweets
17 Mar
AUTOMAKERS OPERATING CASH FLOW AND CASH BALANCES

1. Operating Cash Flow Image
2. Cash Balances Image
3. Net Cash Image
Read 7 tweets
17 Mar
AUTOMAKERS COST AND PROFIT STRUCTURES

1. Gross Margins Image
2. R&D Expenses Image
3. R&D as a percent of Automotive Revenues Image
Read 11 tweets
17 Mar
VOLKSWAGEN - THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH

Volkswagen is not as big as they would like you to think

In 2020 VW Passenger Cars only sold 2,835,000 vehicles, down -22.9% from 2019 Image
The VW brand also lost money for the year Image
Worldwide production of the new ID.3 has only totaled 64,309 units

ID.3 sales have not been reported here, but we can note that 55.8% of those sales were in Asia-Pacific, presumably mostly in China

ID.3 sales in Europe cannot have been more than :

64,309 x 28.1% = 18,070 units Image
Read 8 tweets

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