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Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
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14 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Barbados to remove Queen Elizabeth as head of state. Observers watching to see if Jamaica may follow.

Last country to do so was Mauritius in 1992.

Oprah's most consequential interview?

Ht @PorterMcConnell bbc.com/news/world-lat…
(Yes, as people have noted, this article is old.)
Also from Sept. 2020, here's a note on Jamaica contemplating same, after a debate in 2016 around deplatforming her as Jamaican head of state.
express.co.uk/news/royal/133…
Although the Oprah interview did not really cause any of this, the global #BlackLivesMatter movement that predates it is shaking up geopolitics

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More from @toddntucker

Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
16 Mar
Keynes throwing shade at Cordell Hull over what would become the GATT is a delight
cambridge.org/core/books/gen… Image
There's the invisible hand, the visible hand, and the moribund hand of MFN Image
He saw the liberal era as a vindication for national economic planning Image
Read 4 tweets
Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
16 Mar
Thirteen senators call on Biden to temporarily suspend Buy American waivers for trade agreement partners, noting "this crisis has demonstrated the risks of long foreign supply chains."

Baldwin and Brown joined by Sanders, Warren, Markey, others.
wispolitics.com/2021/u-s-sen-b…
This presidential discretion is built into the Trade Agreements Act of 1979, which greenlit the waivers in the first place. No statutory change needed.
law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/19… Image
While some will bemoan the symbolism of closing procurement opportunities for allies, the reality is that: a) there doesn't appear to much uptake of this anyway; and
gao.gov/products/gao-1…
Read 4 tweets
Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
15 Mar
The Trump and Biden administrations have significantly expanded export controls, which prohibit the unlicensed export of certain products or information.

Biden has also called for modernization of international trade rules.

These could be connected.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has a pretty sweeping obligation for countries to not restrict exports.
wto.org/english/docs_e… Image
But the GATT also has a pretty sweeping national security exception. Image
Read 15 tweets
Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
5 Mar
Helpful @climatestrat study on the WTO implications of fossil fuel subsidies from 2017 by @cleoverk @harrovanasselt Tom Moerenhout @Liesbeth_C87 @PWooders. Thread
climatestrategies.org/publication/ta…
The tl;dr is that

the WTO is generally an anti-subsidy machine,

there are a bunch of types of fossil fuel subsidies,

but it is not a slam dunk that any of them violate WTO rules.
This is because schemes subsidize consumption rather than production, and all else equal the WTO rules are more concerned with the latter.
Read 26 tweets
Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
3 Mar
If EU countries pulled out of the Energy Charter Treaty tomorrow, fossil fuel companies could still sue them for decarbonization efforts for 20 (!!) years.
politico.eu/article/energy…
That gets uncomfortably close to the EU's 2050 target date for attaining carbon neutrality.
ec.europa.eu/clima/policies…
And here are the withdrawal provisions, with a 20 year overhang period.
energycharter.org/fileadmin/Docu… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
25 Feb
Yesterday, Biden issued an executive order on America's Supply Chains.

What's in it? Thread:
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
It announces it's US policy "to strengthen the resilience of America’s supply chains," citing as benefits rebuilt domestic manufacturing capacity, competitiveness, good jobs, fighting climate change, and helping racial justice and underserved communities.

Here are the costs👇
By June 4 of this year, NEC and NSC are instructed to coordinate supply chain reviews in four industries, with four agencies writing them up

DOC: chips, advanced packaging
DOE: high-capacity batteries, including for EVs
DOD: critical minerals
HHS: pharmaceuticals,. API
Read 24 tweets

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